Thanks, but I would urge you to drop the word "timing" from your investment vocabulary. It is well documented that only full-time investment experts will do well, and even they fail as often as they succeed. And armatures like us will get killed in the long run. I don't care how old you are, invest for the long haul and don't worry about what the market will do this week or next year. Armatures occasionally get lucky, which of course reinforces their dangerous behavior, but they will eventually get killed! But then it is too late...
I don't agree. As an example, if you look at the past 25 Q4s you will see a solid trend. That trend says move out of the market during Q4, take your profits and hold until things sort by February. Only on 4 years in 25 has that trend not proven accurate.
To put numbers to that. I used my tired old formula and pulled my money out on Oct 12 when the Market was at 139xx. I missed the top but also missed 2000 points of drop and churn. The only two times that formula has failed this decade was the pullup from 2001 and 2006 which was fueled by the financial spin. In dollars it saved me more than I gambled last night.
While most of the advisers do suggest that you plow through and invest long term, the folks that are turning 25-40% a year are not doing that. They are moving in and out of the market playing its known sweet spots.
Now, about this bottom, there are a bunch of variables to the core Economy that are going to make it hard to predict. Normally the year end bottom would be about now anyway. This year is going to be different. But the good news is stock guys run in herd mentality. Once it starts moving up, most everyone will get on the bandwagon. It will then DIP AGAIN to test its strength and then should start pulling up solid for a couple of quarters.
But my worries with this bottom are all the BAD earnings from Housing, Financials, Manufacturing and now Retail. Only Energy and International is really propping up what is left.