Brace yourself! The U.S. Stock Market May "Crash!" - Page 6 - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #51 of 111 (permalink) Old 01-22-2008, 06:47 PM
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Originally Posted by drewprof View Post
I don't think so, where did you come up with that bottom?
Quit listening to this dumbfuck Jayhawk. Read the truth:

10 Questions: Prudent Bear Fund Manager David Tice

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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post #52 of 111 (permalink) Old 01-22-2008, 06:51 PM
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Originally Posted by FeelTheLove View Post
Quit listening to this dumbfuck Jayhawk. Read the truth:

10 Questions: Prudent Bear Fund Manager David Tice
Yes from people that have 65% allocations in short positions... Brilliant!
No sir I will take Jayhawk over this BS article any day
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post #53 of 111 (permalink) Old 01-22-2008, 07:12 PM Thread Starter
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Yes from people that have 65% allocations in short positions... Brilliant!
No sir I will take Jayhawk over this BS article any day

Don't believe everything you think
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post #54 of 111 (permalink) Old 01-22-2008, 07:34 PM
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It is a very positive sign if the only thing is the MARKET. IF the underlying Economy is also cracking, that is a different animal. That is where the problem is looking to settle right now.

Everyone refocused on the Stock Market today. That is an interesting element but it doesn't change the Financial Sector [which the rate cut will help] or the Housing sector, which the rate cut might help but not if it just gets sub prime borrowers again. MLS books are chocked fuller than ever before.
Banks have the support of the Fed with unlimited funds. Since the moral
hazard question has been answered, the flood gates are open (mostly behind
the scenes). Housing will be rescued one way or another with low interest
rates and assisted refinancing. Election year , Bernanke's reputation ,
Hillary Nationalised Housing etc.
In addition, cheaper housing should lead to lower rents.
The only near certainty is the dollar is going to get it which is another
reason why cash is becoming trash.

Last edited by mlfun; 01-22-2008 at 07:37 PM.
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post #55 of 111 (permalink) Old 01-22-2008, 07:56 PM
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Banks have the support of the Fed with unlimited funds.
So the long term question becomes - at what point does the tax burden of the FED's largesse toward the Financial Sector outweigh the benefits it provides? Since we are not providing "pay as you go" tax increases to fund this bailout [quickly reaching $1Trillion] that means it will be going onto the National Debt and interest payments [about $60B annually] will be adding to the expense.

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post #56 of 111 (permalink) Old 01-22-2008, 07:59 PM
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Banks have the support of the Fed with unlimited funds. Since the moral
hazard question has been answered, the flood gates are open (mostly behind
the scenes). Housing will be rescued one way or another with low interest
rates and assisted refinancing. Election year , Bernanke's reputation ,
Hillary Nationalised Housing etc.
In addition, cheaper housing should lead to lower rents.
The only near certainty is the dollar is going to get it which is another
reason why cash is becoming trash.
Wait a minute. Rents have not kept up in the last few years in Denver area, but as the foreclosures have increased, rents are rising. Why? Well, those who defaulted have to live someplace and they don't immediately qualify to purchase another home.

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post #57 of 111 (permalink) Old 01-22-2008, 08:12 PM
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That is what I was thinking Drew. I know some people back in New York that did good for them selves, but they where buying in $50,000 blocks. Since I don't have that much I heard even starting small would do good. I don't trust traditional retirement plans these days, but I figured some stock options and a retirement plan could look decent in 35 years.
Conventional wisdom is to fill your IRA or 401K each year before risking your money on an "investment". By deferring the tax on an IRA contribution, at the very least, you will double your return compared to stock investing, on the average. If you have access to a 401k with an employer match, you'll defer the tax and get the free money.

With a self-directed IRA you can use your funds to invest in real estate, make loans to others, etc.

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post #58 of 111 (permalink) Old 01-22-2008, 08:12 PM
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Wait a minute. Rents have not kept up in the last few years in Denver area, but as the foreclosures have increased, rents are rising. Why? Well, those who defaulted have to live someplace and they don't immediately qualify to purchase another home.

Anecdotal evidence is useless IMO. Do you have a link to the survey ?
Assuming rents are rising, that indicates people can still afford to pay
rent.
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post #59 of 111 (permalink) Old 01-22-2008, 08:15 PM
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^ People may have the means to pay rent, but may not be creditworthy.

Foreclosure is a bit more time consuming and longer arriving than eviction due to non-payment of rent.

Rent SHOULD be more expensive; one's lack of ability to buy a home says some things implicitly...either they don't want one, or couldn't get one if they did. Both cases present an opportunity on which to be capitalized.
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post #60 of 111 (permalink) Old 01-22-2008, 08:17 PM
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Originally Posted by McBear
I would bet that someone could make good money tonight on the Asian Markets. $200K should bring in about $10K net if they bounce like I think they will.
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Though perhaps correct that is dangerous thinking, IMO. Are you going to try and catch the falling knife?
In and out in 40 minutes. Hang Seng up 6.37%

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