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post #31 of 43 (permalink) Old 01-14-2008, 06:32 AM
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We can defend ourselves without getting into an all out war. It is a choice we can make. But it appears this Goddamn President is not going to be happy till he fucks with another hornet's nest he leaves office.
I cannot imagine what the Arabs he is visiting must be thinking about President Bush and his rants. It is true they are Shia arabs mostly, in Iran, and many in his audience are Sunni ones, but I have no doubt the President neither knows nor cares about the difference between them, and that they have commercial links with each other.

He just wants to peddle his personal version of "Freedom and democracy" down their throats whether they like it or not.


He is totally unfit to lead this country, with his stubborn, personal religious ideas and personal demons constituting the basis for this nation's foreign policy.

I can not imagine what al Jezeera is reporting this days


It would not surprise me if he invades Iran before he leaves. I am quite sure he would love to cram his idea of "Freedom and democracy" down their throat, too.

An invasion would instantly unite them ALL against us.

It would bring instant $200 a barrel oil, and a worldwide recession pretty quick, too.

He is the worst American President I have ever seen, an arrogant, stubborn, foolish man seeking to peddle his ideas abroad by military force, at the same time wiping out the Constitution under the solemn guise of "National Security".

By continuing to fund the madness, the Republicans and Democrats are complicit also.

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post #32 of 43 (permalink) Old 01-14-2008, 08:27 AM
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The Problem is a lot deeper than Bush, You just can not see the strings on his sleeves, The guy can barely read. We have here in Canada the silent partner or PM.The guys who finance their campaigns just want to make sure they get their investments covered 1000 percent. The lumanati will be here to stay. But Internet is gaining on them. Who do you believe? And the only thing we can do is voice our knowledge of what we read or predict. Did anyone download "Zeitgeist" the movie it has some truth but you believe what you want.
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post #33 of 43 (permalink) Old 01-14-2008, 11:35 AM
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Oh.
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The biggest problems we are facing right now have to do with George Bush trying to bring more and more power into the executive branch and not go through Congress at all and that’s what I intend to reverse.

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post #34 of 43 (permalink) Old 01-14-2008, 12:00 PM
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Agreed on the arming but that CAN be rigged. If you are going to strap it to a boat, rigging the arming ain't no big thing.

I am surprised that they got as close as they did. I would have thought CAP would have said HI well before then.
Hey, you can do a lot of things, no doubt, but to neuter a million dollar missile, even for them doesn’t make a lot of sense does it? Besides, that’s what cheap rockets are for, leave the missiles for the aircraft…

I would be willing to bet that the CAP was on top of them before they left their territorial waters, and monitored them right up to where they were photographed, but they were told to stay clear.
Want to bet that they were pretty sure there wasn’t anything that was very dangerous on board those little boats?

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post #35 of 43 (permalink) Old 01-14-2008, 12:14 PM
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IMO you guys assume a level of competency in the military that has never existed. Planning and training for dealing with a threat are wonderful exercises. Properly conducted they improve the competency of those involved. But there are no guarantees, especially involving 4 dimensional threats from concealed, camouflaged, clandestine, covert, and overt sources, each with their own strengths and weaknesses that may come and go with personnel and ambitions of the other side. Look at the terrible examples of the Vincennes and Cole, bracketing as they do the ideal solution. A screw-up either way results in dead sailors or dead civilians. And the air forces (naval and otherwise) have plenty of examples of attacking friendly ground forces or noncombatants on one extreme or being too sluggish to come to teh aid of desparate soldiers or civilians on the other.

I have no doubt that Iran, or some similarly ill-intentioned state or non-state entity will successfully mount a missile attack on civilian shipping or naval forces in the Straits of Hormuz or elsewhere. It is simply a matter of probability, acceptable risk and time. Both coalition forces and hostile forces are continually making those calculations. The trigger will be pulled at a time of what they calculate is our greatest disadvantage.

There is no certainty in either war or peace while those two states are fluid in themselves in a way new to our western democratic minds. The best we can do is hope for the best and train for the worst. That's why every sailor on every naval vessel is a firefighter in addition to his other duties. Shit happens and you better be good at what you do.

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post #36 of 43 (permalink) Old 01-14-2008, 01:23 PM
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The Strait, and the lanes deep enough to navigate for todays super tankers are even narrower. It has long been discussed, what one or two tankers blown up across, and blocking the tanker lanes would do to the World economy. We could easily see even $ 200 oil, and not just from an escalating oil price, but also the inability of getting said tankers / cargo insured.
I think the sudden lack of insurance for the tankers/cargo would be prime reason boats would just sit in the Gulf or pattern in the Indian Ocean. That was one of the major concerns when China started selling Iran Silkworms a few years ago. From shore placement they can take out pretty much any undefended target and gridlock ensues.

Edit: TT I just read your next post on Silkworms.

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post #37 of 43 (permalink) Old 01-14-2008, 01:32 PM
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Hey, you can do a lot of things, no doubt, but to neuter a million dollar missile, even for them doesn’t make a lot of sense does it? Besides, that’s what cheap rockets are for, leave the missiles for the aircraft…

I would be willing to bet that the CAP was on top of them before they left their territorial waters, and monitored them right up to where they were photographed, but they were told to stay clear.
Want to bet that they were pretty sure there wasn’t anything that was very dangerous on board those little boats?
In an area where "territorial waters" and the "4 mile wide international shipping lanes" are squeezed together, CAP would have to make serious assumptions as the boats were in harbor, and at 50 MPH, would have under 2 minutes for the targets go from harbor to 500 yards off the side of the destroyers.

If that level of confrontation continues however I assume the next time it won't have the lag time.

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post #38 of 43 (permalink) Old 01-14-2008, 02:25 PM
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In an area where "territorial waters" and the "4 mile wide international shipping lanes" are squeezed together, CAP would have to make serious assumptions as the boats were in harbor, and at 50 MPH, would have under 2 minutes for the targets go from harbor to 500 yards off the side of the destroyers.

If that level of confrontation continues however I assume the next time it won't have the lag time.
Those boats were outboards, and lucky to be able to hit 25 knots, but your point is taken.
If the ships weren't covered by helicopters enroute to where they were going someone screwed up. Even a few "ma duce" could have cleaned house with little problem.

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post #39 of 43 (permalink) Old 01-15-2008, 06:11 AM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcbear View Post
I think the sudden lack of insurance for the tankers/cargo would be prime reason boats would just sit in the Gulf or pattern in the Indian Ocean. That was one of the major concerns when China started selling Iran Silkworms a few years ago. From shore placement they can take out pretty much any undefended target and gridlock ensues.

Edit: TT I just read your next post on Silkworms.
Shore placement and from the disputed islands Iran has (re) claimed and occupied since the early 70's. Abu Musa (see map) is host to Irans strategic missile program, including an advanced version of the Shahab, capable of carrying nuclear / biological war heads to a distance of 2,200 Km.
If there would be an attack on Iran, surgical strikes against installations of the 100,000+ strong Pasdaran, i.e. Revolutionary Guards (full title is 'Guardians of the Iranian Revolution), Abu Musa is one of their facilities, and getting Iran off those islands, would be an interesting move. The Revolutionary Guard structure is the only thing keeping the Mullahs in power, and the population suppressed.
Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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post #40 of 43 (permalink) Old 01-15-2008, 06:29 AM
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... The Revolutionary Guard structure is the only thing keeping the Mullahs in power, and the population suppressed.
Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
An excellent reason to try to avoid any direct confrontation. Don't want to raise the issue of external threat which would unite the Iranians against the threat. Just let the natural stresses push on the fissures.

OTOH, don't stick our own sailors into a situation in which they cannot defend themselves if attacked by speedboats or cruise missiles.

B

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