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post #21 of 43 (permalink) Old 01-13-2008, 08:04 PM
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Well, I saw on television tonight that some Iranian ships, well possibly Iranian speedboats, threatened the hell out of a US warship in open water (think gnat harrassing elephant). It was touch and go for a while there. Somebody said "prepare to blow up" on a radio.

I can't wait until the PSA's admonish us all to support efforts to free Iranians from their opressors...

In any case, the machine is crunk. The course is set. Stay the course.

Oh, and my distrust extends to the proper judgement of all Americans.
The straits of hormuz have a VERY NARROW channel for ships to navigate. It has been considered for decades that if there were to be a single flash point for that part of the world, the straits would be it.

And while the speedboats are gnats against Destroyers, they are big enough to hold an Exocet [although they would lose the boat in launch]. An Exocet will take out a Destroyer in a flash and from the range those boats were approaching, even the advanced Phalanx ship defense system would have a hard time locking on and taking out the Exocet, just not enough time.

But more likely they would try to get the US to be the aggressor. They have tried that tactic before. That gives them leverage in the future.

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post #22 of 43 (permalink) Old 01-13-2008, 08:18 PM
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And while the speedboats are gnats against Destroyers, they are big enough to hold an Exocet [although they would lose the boat in launch]. An Exocet will take out a Destroyer in a flash and from the range those boats were approaching, even the advanced Phalanx ship defense system would have a hard time locking on and taking out the Exocet, just not enough time.
If they launch from the distance that was shown in the videos, the Exocet wouldn't have enough time to arm themselves.
From any reasonable distance the Phalanx would work, but let's face it they are NOT a 100% guarenteed missle killer, close, but not perfect.

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post #23 of 43 (permalink) Old 01-13-2008, 08:21 PM
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If they launch from the distance that was shown in the videos, the Exocet wouldn't have enough time to arm themselves.
From any reasonable distance the Phalanx would work, but let's face it they are NOT a 100% guarenteed missle killer, close, but not perfect.
Agreed on the arming but that CAN be rigged. If you are going to strap it to a boat, rigging the arming ain't no big thing.

I am surprised that they got as close as they did. I would have thought CAP would have said HI well before then.

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post #24 of 43 (permalink) Old 01-13-2008, 08:31 PM
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Oh boy, this president has not got anything right. It will be bigger disaster in Iran than Iraq and Afghan. He is out of his mind, and here he goes again. Why can he finish one thing at a time? Here are his assignments:

1. Capture the mast mind of the terrorist behind 911.
2. Take care of our people and economy.
3. He went into Iraq for the wrong reasons. He have to make it right there for the shake of humanitarian.
4. End his term.
5. Let the new president take care of Iran.

Enjoy it while you can!
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post #25 of 43 (permalink) Old 01-13-2008, 09:03 PM
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Introduction
The Strait of Hormuz (26°34'0.00"N, 56°15'0.00"E) a narrow passageway connecting the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea and separating Iran from the Arabian Peninsula, is one of the world's vital oil transit chokepoints. The northern tip of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) forms the southern shoreline of the strait. The UAE, officially created in 1971, is a constitutional federation made up of Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, Ajman, Umm al-Quaiwain, Ras al-Khaimah and Fujairah. The narrow strait connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The Strait consists of 2-mile wide channels for inbound and outbound tanker traffic, as well as a 2-mile wide buffer zone.
Why is this Region Important?
Two-thirds of the world's oil is transported by ocean; straits and canals are therefore vital in reducing the time and costs of transporting oil, as well as other goods, globally. Any political disturbances or upheavals can cause the “choking” of the few important straits for world oil transit and thus disrupt world oil prices.
The abundance of oil and the world’s dependence on imported oil from this region make the Strait of Hormuz one of the most important chokepoints to monitor. The strait has a width of 54 km (34 miles) and is consequently a relatively easy passageway to obstruct. Roughly 17 million billion barrels per day (bbl/d) or 40% of world’s oil passes through this strait daily.
The UAE and Iran, along with the rest of the Persian Gulf countries (Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia), produced 27% of the world’s oil in 2003 and collectively hold more than half of the world’s total oil reserves, as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries import the majority of their oil from the Persian Gulf; in 2003, 11.6 million barrels per day were exported to OECD countries. The majority of oil leaving this region passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Threats to Disrupt Passage through the Strait
Fortunately, the strait has never actually been shut down, yet the constant political, religious, ethnic, and territorial disputes between the Persian Gulf countries has made the world anxious in anticipation of obstruction.
On September 22, 1980, Iraq invaded Iran, initiating an eight-year war between the two countries. The Iran-Iraq war was the manifestation of deeply rooted religious and ethnic divisions, border conflicts, and political differences. Religious and ethnic divides between the Sunnis and the Shias, coupled with personal hostility between Saddam Hussein and Ayatollah Khomeini, then-leaders of Iraq and Iran respectively, added to the tension.
In 1984, Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz after repeated attacks by Iraq disrupted Iranian shipping. However, in order to continue exporting oil and maintain its economy, Iran needed to keep the strait open and ultimately backed down from this threat.
Another threat to the Strait of Hormuz involves the ongoing dispute between the UAE and Iran over three islands – Abu Musa, Greater Tunb Island, and Lesser Tunb Island – all located near the Strait of Hormuz. The island Abu Musa is of particular interest because it is thought to contain large deposits of oil. By 1992, Iran managed to informally secure the islands even though no official agreement had been made with the UAE.
The Gulf Cooperation Council and the UAE are reluctant to interfere for fear that Iran will retaliate by closing the strait. Claims to the islands are still being disputed, yet Iran has asserted dominance by developing military stations on these islands, particularly guarding Abu Musa. Such development on these strategic islands will only facilitate Iran’s capability to close off the straits and defend itself against US military attacks.
In 1997, Iran once again threatened to close the strait if the United States attempted to interfere with Iranian terrorism against other Persian Gulf countries.
Although Iran has yet to follow through on its threats to close the strait, if it were to happen, alternative routes would need to be utilized. This could add to transportation costs and forestall the global distribution of oil, causing oil prices to increase.
Petroleum is the single most important commodity in today’s world. Our dependence on this resource can be felt in the way society reacts to even minor shifts in oil markets. With demand and consumption increasing, mankind’s dependence on oil only continues to grow. Our dependence is such, that any minor interference in the production or distribution of oil has profound economic and political consequences. Because oil being exported through the Strait of Hormuz is projected to increase, ensuring the flow of oil through this hostile region will continue to be a crucial issue in the years to come.
Further reading
[1] Rodrique, Jean-Paul. “Straits, Passages and Chokepoints: A Maritime Geostrategy of Petroleum Distribution.” Les Cahiers de Geographie du Quebec, Vol. 48, No. 135, 357-374.
[2] Persian Gulf Oil and Gas Exports Fact Sheet
[3] The United States and the Iran-Iraq War
[4] Island Dispute Between Iran and the UAE
Citation
Roman, Alejandra (Lead Author); Cutler J. Cleveland (Topic Editor). 2007. "Strait of Hormuz." In: Encyclopedia of Earth. Eds. Cutler J. Cleveland (Washington, D.C.: Environmental Information Coalition, National Council for Science and the Environment). [First published in the Encyclopedia of Earth September 4, 2006; Last revised June 14, 2007; Retrieved January 13, 2008]. <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Strait_of_Hormuz>

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post #26 of 43 (permalink) Old 01-13-2008, 11:29 PM Thread Starter
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The straits of hormuz have a VERY NARROW channel for ships to navigate. It has been considered for decades that if there were to be a single flash point for that part of the world, the straits would be it.

And while the speedboats are gnats against Destroyers, they are big enough to hold an Exocet [although they would lose the boat in launch]. An Exocet will take out a Destroyer in a flash and from the range those boats were approaching, even the advanced Phalanx ship defense system would have a hard time locking on and taking out the Exocet, just not enough time.

But more likely they would try to get the US to be the aggressor. They have tried that tactic before. That gives them leverage in the future.
The Strait, and the lanes deep enough to navigate for todays super tankers are even narrower. It has long been discussed, what one or two tankers blown up across, and blocking the tanker lanes would do to the World economy. We could easily see even $ 200 oil, and not just from an escalating oil price, but also the inability of getting said tankers / cargo insured.
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post #27 of 43 (permalink) Old 01-13-2008, 11:36 PM Thread Starter
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Iran has missile batteries, Chinese HY-2 silkworm, and also the Iranian build Shahab 3D with a range of 2200 Km, not only all along its coast, but also the Gulf islands of Abu Musa, Quesm, and Siri. Iran has occupied Abu Musa since the early 70's.
These islands are of great strategic importance.
I am sure the brass has discussed this at lenght, but getting Iran off the island(s) would be a hell of move.
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post #28 of 43 (permalink) Old 01-14-2008, 12:08 AM Thread Starter
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Here is food for though: Taking the LPG tanks of a ship off refrigeration could turn a tanker into one massive mega bomb, with the destructive energy not far removed from the Hiroshima bomb.

In March 2003, the chemical tanker Dewi Madrim, was boarded off the coast of Sumatra in Indonesian waters by 10 pirates from a speedboat.

They were armed with machine guns and machetes and carried VHF (very high frequency) radios. They disabled the ship's radio, took the helm and steered the vessel, altering speed, for about an hour. Then they left, with some cash and the captain and first officer, who are still missing.

The Aegis report concludes that this was a case of terrorists learning to drive a ship, and that the kidnapping (without any attempt to ransom the officers) was designed to acquire expertise for carrying out a maritime attack. The Economist described the takeover of the Dewi Madrim as 'the equivalent of the Al-Qaeda hijackers who perpetrated the Sept 11 attacks going to flying school in Florida'.
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post #29 of 43 (permalink) Old 01-14-2008, 05:22 AM
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The Strait, and the lanes deep enough to navigate for todays super tankers are even narrower. It has long been discussed, what one or two tankers blown up across, and blocking the tanker lanes would do to the World economy. We could easily see even $ 200 oil, and not just from an escalating oil price, but also the inability of getting said tankers / cargo insured.
Not quite accurate since the lanes are a couple of miles wide each and have a couple of miles of separation between them.

The biggest problems we are facing right now have to do with George Bush trying to bring more and more power into the executive branch and not go through Congress at all and thats what I intend to reverse.

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post #30 of 43 (permalink) Old 01-14-2008, 06:21 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Teutone View Post
The Strait, and the lanes deep enough to navigate for todays super tankers are even narrower. It has long been discussed, what one or two tankers blown up across, and blocking the tanker lanes would do to the World economy. We could easily see even $ 200 oil, and not just from an escalating oil price, but also the inability of getting said tankers / cargo insured.
I have wondered about this for years.

Anyone bent on mishief would merely have to sink one or two oil tankers at the narrowest point in the straits, and they would effectively close them, with the results mentioned above.

Once the straits are closed and silted up, no more oil tankers could use them at all.

I am pretty sure a similar situation obtained in the early/mid 1980's, because off the Iran-Iraq war, when the line of ships was over 6 months long.

It was so bad, that the long distance TIR trucks made the journey instead, with goods to Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait.

The demand never ceased at all.

Jim
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