Has anybody told Jay, Please let him down easy, don't want him to pull a Britney..... - Page 4 - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #31 of 36 (permalink) Old 01-12-2008, 10:00 AM
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I think the market will be up again this year, but the first half is likely to experience serious resistance.
First quarter is going to be "nervie". As we started loading in the orders I asked if it would be better to just cash it out and set fire to it in the parking lot. She was only partially laughing.

She keeps harassing me because I picked 3 funds last year and she picked 3 to deal with. Hers were up an average 18% and mine were up 39% average. We did the same this year as we reset.

But until quarterlies are through and people can see IF the worst if over and this Fn SubPrime mess runs it's course [you didn't believe me when I told you it would be 8 quarters]by the end of 2008. End of Q2 will tell IF the SubPrime cancer spills over onto the economy as a whole, no matter what the FED does. If it does, add 18 months to the "lowered expectations".

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post #32 of 36 (permalink) Old 01-12-2008, 10:45 AM
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And Inflation is no worry?
"...no worry" at this time.

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post #33 of 36 (permalink) Old 01-12-2008, 10:53 AM
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First quarter is going to be "nervie". As we started loading in the orders I asked if it would be better to just cash it out and set fire to it in the parking lot. She was only partially laughing.

She keeps harassing me because I picked 3 funds last year and she picked 3 to deal with. Hers were up an average 18% and mine were up 39% average. We did the same this year as we reset.

But until quarterlies are through and people can see IF the worst if over and this Fn SubPrime mess runs it's course [you didn't believe me when I told you it would be 8 quarters]by the end of 2008. End of Q2 will tell IF the SubPrime cancer spills over onto the economy as a whole, no matter what the FED does. If it does, add 18 months to the "lowered expectations".
I did underestimate the extent of the sub-prime mess. But I knew a couple years ago that when the housing bubble burst the shit would hit the fan. I just didn't count on the credit markets bursting w/ it. Kind of a double-whammy, the likes of which we have never seen before--and hopefully never will again.

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post #34 of 36 (permalink) Old 01-12-2008, 11:13 AM
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the likes of which we have never seen before--and hopefully never will again.
As long as the Bush family has no hands in this one, remember Neil Bush and his saga of the S&L mass in the 80's?

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post #35 of 36 (permalink) Old 01-12-2008, 12:39 PM
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I did underestimate the extent of the sub-prime mess. But I knew a couple years ago that when the housing bubble burst the shit would hit the fan. I just didn't count on the credit markets bursting w/ it. Kind of a double-whammy, the likes of which we have never seen before--and hopefully never will again.
The thing with Sub-Prime, Housing, the credit markets and the Finance Sector is they are so tightly intertwined since Greenspan built all these Hedge and derivative and CBO and leveraged instruments that have polluted the entire spectrum.

It used to be [before this deregulation and elimination of federal oversight] that banks would hold paper as their own asset. NOW most institutions simply act as a facilitator and package the paper to a widespread number of hedge and leveraged derivative funds. When it worked it worked well for everyone but it only took one tripcord to bring everything down since there has never been a fiscal foundation for that system. It was basically designed as a "this works when it works" system.

Much of the worldwide system of non secured securities are going to be redesigned to get this cleared up. There will be much less leverage in the future so when there is a trip, it won't cascade at 35 to 1 again.

McBear,
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Being smart is knowing the difference, in a sticky situation between a well delivered anecdote and a well delivered antidote - bear.

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post #36 of 36 (permalink) Old 01-12-2008, 01:24 PM
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The thing with Sub-Prime, Housing, the credit markets and the Finance Sector is they are so tightly intertwined since Greenspan built all these Hedge and derivative and CBO and leveraged instruments that have polluted the entire spectrum.

It used to be [before this deregulation and elimination of federal oversight] that banks would hold paper as their own asset. NOW most institutions simply act as a facilitator and package the paper to a widespread number of hedge and leveraged derivative funds. When it worked it worked well for everyone but it only took one tripcord to bring everything down since there has never been a fiscal foundation for that system. It was basically designed as a "this works when it works" system.

Much of the worldwide system of non secured securities are going to be redesigned to get this cleared up. There will be much less leverage in the future so when there is a trip, it won't cascade at 35 to 1 again.
I mostly agree! Sometimes it takes a disaster to get financial institutions to build in some safeguards they never thought would be necessary. It was an unusual confluence of events that brought this about.

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