You have a "portfolio?" I can only imagine what the hell that is like...
To call this economy "rosy," is a gross misrepresentation of this booming economy. My God! 4% growth in the last quarters is truly incredible!
I just went out to the Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis to look up this amazing number. Here is what I found [and you can find it, too!]
The Dept of Commerce is nice enough to provide a spreadsheet of GDP that dates from 1929 and is up to date through 10/31/07 and has the "Current-Dollar and "Real" Gross Domestic Product"
numbers in (Seasonally adjusted annual rates)
Taking the numbers that are provided for both Q3-2006 and Q3-2007 and Q2-2007 and Q3-2007 what we find is the following.
IF we look at Q2 2006 to Q2 2007 numbers we get the 4%
growth in GDP - but only if we use numbers not corrected for inflation
or corrected for a constant comparison.
IF we look at Q2 2006 to Q2 2007 with numbers that are corrected
for accurate comparison we get 2.5%
IF we further look at Q2 2007 to Q3 2007 numbers, actualized for comparison we get .96 increase in GDP ANNUALIZED for Fiscal Year 2007.
SO, we only get the 4% number IF we use a formula that would never be used by any accounting or economics reporting system that has to provide ACCURATE numbers. In other words, the 4% number is Political Accounting.
BEA National Economic Accounts