Talk of Worst Recession Since the 1930s - Page 2 - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #11 of 45 (permalink) Old 11-12-2007, 03:05 PM
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We are NOT in a recession! The definition of a recession is a decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for two or more consecutive quarters. In the last two quarters the U.S. economy has grown by 4% in each quarter!!

Get a grip man! Or get an education, and then you won't need a grip...
That definition is only used by Politicians who want to keep the R word out of the News. You won't find it in any of the classic schools of economics.

Problem with GDP and this Economic cycle is we have ENERGY prices which have more than DOUBLED in the past 5 years and now FOOD prices [which depend on energy to some extent] which are jumping that are keeping the GDP at positive levels. Inflation on some sectors is keeping indices from reading Recession on aggregate sectors.

You also have currency issues at play that don't normally factor into the Recession discussion as readily but in this case they are affecting GDP on a fundamental level. What that means is currency devaluation is both a contributor to, and a insulator from Recession. Cool, huh.

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post #12 of 45 (permalink) Old 11-12-2007, 04:11 PM
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Certain sectors such as the furniture industry (which I somehow decided to dedicate my life to) have been in a full on depression for several years. It's a complex economy that doesn't lend itself to the old b school definitions.

Most of the leading econ thinkers admit we're in for a hell of a ride for the next few years. Keep in mind, there are always incredible opportunites during times like this.
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post #13 of 45 (permalink) Old 11-12-2007, 04:26 PM
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^Too rigid.
That's what all the girls say!

Don't believe everything you think
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post #14 of 45 (permalink) Old 11-12-2007, 04:28 PM
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That definition is only used by Politicians who want to keep the R word out of the News. You won't find it in any of the classic schools of economics.

Problem with GDP and this Economic cycle is we have ENERGY prices which have more than DOUBLED in the past 5 years and now FOOD prices [which depend on energy to some extent] which are jumping that are keeping the GDP at positive levels. Inflation on some sectors is keeping indices from reading Recession on aggregate sectors.

You also have currency issues at play that don't normally factor into the Recession discussion as readily but in this case they are affecting GDP on a fundamental level. What that means is currency devaluation is both a contributor to, and a insulator from Recession. Cool, huh.
That definition is Econ 101! You just can't stand the fact the accepted definition does not fit your leftwing view of the world.

Come on bear! You're bigger than that--physically and functionally!!!

Don't believe everything you think
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post #15 of 45 (permalink) Old 11-12-2007, 04:35 PM
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Certain sectors such as the furniture industry (which I somehow decided to dedicate my life to) have been in a full on depression for several years. It's a complex economy that doesn't lend itself to the old b school definitions.

Most of the leading econ thinkers admit we're in for a hell of a ride for the next few years. Keep in mind, there are always incredible opportunites during times like this.
Come on G! At any given time there are always sectors of our economy that are up and sectors that are down, but for some Chicken Little to call this booming economy (+4%/quarter for each of the last two quarters) a bust is just plain nuts. I'm sorry your sofas are not selling, but suspect that it has more to do w/ the brands you carry than the U.S. economy.

Don't believe everything you think
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post #16 of 45 (permalink) Old 11-12-2007, 05:25 PM
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^^^^

Don't listen to them naysayers Jay, my friend. Go with your instinct and put all your assets into stocks and in three years you will be able to prove you were right all along-and hold a champagne reception for all your poor chums in BW.
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post #17 of 45 (permalink) Old 11-12-2007, 06:30 PM
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Originally Posted by gerkebi View Post
Certain sectors such as the furniture industry (which I somehow decided to dedicate my life to) have been in a full on depression for several years. It's a complex economy that doesn't lend itself to the old b school definitions.

Most of the leading econ thinkers admit we're in for a hell of a ride for the next few years. Keep in mind, there are always incredible opportunites during times like this.
I can see you getting the first tier of the Housing dip. I am guessing that the first big wave started about 18 months ago but with so many empties on the market it has to start working on you.

Are you starting to find that some folks are in the "decided not to move so we will just upgrade what we have" phase now? I would think that, if folks can't push up to the next level house then remodel and/or bump up furniture would be the next logical step.

I talked to a biz connection in the clothing biz today and he is giving me the same story. He is CorpVP at Russell Athletic which makes all sorts of athletic wear and he is talking about 25% down across the board from collegiate apparel to the Target/Walmart/Macy's sportswear lines. Even though they only do about 20% of their production on shore they are still looking at ways to cut costs in their China production [that should be interesting]. He is not looking at a good Christmas season for the first time in Corporate history.

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post #18 of 45 (permalink) Old 11-12-2007, 06:32 PM
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That definition is Econ 101! You just can't stand the fact the accepted definition does not fit your leftwing view of the world.

Come on bear! You're bigger than that--physically and functionally!!!
Well, those are basic mechanics, if you think they were spun, that is what you are going to think. The 2Q to Recession is a political hacks guide to Economics, nothing more.

And that was most likely more like ECO341 at most schools.

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post #19 of 45 (permalink) Old 11-12-2007, 06:39 PM
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Jaybird, nobody's sofas are selling unfortunately. We're not as bad as most, but the sector is really hurting. Bear, the "decided not to move so let's fix up the hacienda" sector is good, but statistically new homes spend 7 times what existing homes do on furniture. It's better than it has been, but can't get close to new rooftops.
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post #20 of 45 (permalink) Old 11-12-2007, 06:40 PM
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Jay,
Frankly I don't give a bird shit to what the politicians, the economists, the charts, and especially YOU have to say about the fucking economy. All I have to do is to look at my own portfolio and I can conclude how this God Damn economy is doing.

It is people like you making us poor. You think the economy is rosy when it is not, you think we can save the world when we can't afford to, you think this country still winning when we are indeed losing, you think this country runs on surplus when it is actually the deficit.

Take your own fucking advise: "Don't believe what you think".

You are one lost soul. May whatever you worship have no mercy on you.

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