I generally agree, but we are in no way, shape or form in a recession. Recessions do occur, and will occur again--probably w/in the next five years--but we ARE NOT in a recession at this time.
Sorry Jay but there some that see your timetable as being a little long in the tooth......
Six in 10 consumers see recession: survey
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Six in 10 consumers say a recession is likely in the next three to six months,
according to a survey on holiday spending released on Wednesday.
In a telephone survey by America's Research Group, 45.7 percent of 1,000 respondents said a recession was "somewhat likely," and 14.3 percent said it was "very likely." Forty percent said a recession was "not likely."
The interviews were conducted November 1-4. The error factor is plus or minus 4.3 percent.
Recession fears ahead of the holiday shopping season have been kindled by concerns about jobs and the U.S. housing meltdown.
The survey found the number of consumers who feel worse off financially this Christmas season has risen to almost one-third of all Americans, up from 18.5 percent last year.
Still, even with questions about the strength of the economy, the wealthy seem intent on spending for the holidays, no matter what.
For those who said they will spend more than $1,000 this holiday season, 46.8 percent said nothing could make them spend less than they planned.
Loss of job or income would cut back spending for 20.5 percent of the highest spenders, while an unexpected bill would cause 10.7 percent to cut back, the survey said.
"There's hardly anything that is going to stop the luxury consumer from spending," said Britt Beemer, chairman and founder of America's Research Group.
Consumers in general are skittish about buying toys from China in the wake of high-profile recalls of toys made there. They are also willing to pay more for the same toy if it is made in the United States, the survey said.
Only 10.7 percent of respondents said they would buy toys made in China for Christmas, 66.9 percent said they would not, and 22.4 percent said they did not know.
The survey found 67.4 percent were willing to pay more for a U.S.-made toy. Of those who would pay more, 17.6 percent said they would pay a premium of $5 or less, and 28 percent said they would pay a premium of $6 to $10.
But the concern does not spread to other products. Only 19.1 percent said they would not buy apparel, video cameras or electronics made in China.
Of those consumers who do plan to buy toys this Christmas, 21.5 percent expect to spend less than last year, while almost 25 percent plan to spend more.
Beemer expects stores to be crowded on "Black Friday," the day after Thanksgiving that traditionally marks the launch of the holiday shopping season.
The survey found that 47 percent of Americans plan to shop the day after Thanksgiving, up from 33 percent last year, driven by the expectation that retailers will offer better deals this year.
Those deals will be important to shoppers this holiday season, as 58 percent said they will be more bargain-driven this year than a year ago. Nearly half will wait for 50 percent-off sales before they buy, up from 39.5 percent last year, the survey found.
Also from the survey, gift cards continue to grow in popularity, with almost 70 percent saying they would buy a gift card. The average amount to be spent is $164 on gift cards, compared with about $120 a year ago, the survey said.
Where will shoppers head to get their holiday shopping done? According to the survey, Wal-Mart Stores Inc will be a prime destination, with 85.3 percent of consumers expecting to shop there, driven to the discount retailer by its renewed efforts to emphasize its low prices.
Six in 10 consumers see recession: survey - Yahoo! News