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post #111 of 132 (permalink) Old 11-09-2007, 01:32 AM
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I am, at this very moment, watching Fed Chair Bernanke on CNBC explain to the leftwing loonies on the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress, why we are NOT in a recession now, and are not likely to be for "many quarters to come." Chuckie Schummer, D-NY, is pressing him from every direction you can imagine to say we might have a recession at some time down the road. Ben is being very specific on why we are not now, nor are we likely to be in the near future, in a recession. Ben says we are likely to see slower, but continued positive, growth in the foreseeable future; and that the state of our economy is very good. He also says the US dollar will remain the world's strongest currency, and that the strong labor market will continue to support the US economy. And we will see additional strength from the booming export markets. In general he seems very positive about the outlook for the US economy.
McBear, I was wondering if you coud explain something to me regarding the US Fed and how they come to their conclusions when testifying such as what Benny did yesterday.

Now above we can see what Benny said as per Jay (I do not doubt it) but below you can see a highlighted excerpt where Benny demurringly said “We have not calculated the probability of a recession,” . So my question is how can he testify in front of Congress that the US is not now nor will be in the near future a reccession if the FED has not calculated the probability of one?

Small piece of his testimony
Testifying before the Joint Economic Committee, the Fed chairman said that the two rate cuts in September and October “should” be enough to keep the economy from slipping into a recession. Without being specific, he reinforced statements by other Fed policymakers that the economy would have to show signs of stalling out entirely before they would reduce rates again.

Asked if he saw any risks of a recession, Mr. Bernanke demurred. “We have not calculated the probability of a recession,” he responded. “Our assessment is for slower growth, but positive.”


Full article is located here:
Fed Chairman Says Economy Likely to Slow - New York Times

I am also curious about whether you yourself ever thought that the USD would sink as low as it has. I mean I tohught 1.44 USD to 1 Euro would be the spring point but today it hit 1.47 and the Pound is 2.11. I mean how low can it go..........

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post #112 of 132 (permalink) Old 11-09-2007, 03:58 AM
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Retailers post worst October sales in 12 years (the link works no matter what it says below)

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post #113 of 132 (permalink) Old 11-09-2007, 04:01 AM
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^^^
I can vouch for that.

I cannot vouch for the link, however.

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post #114 of 132 (permalink) Old 11-09-2007, 04:07 AM
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^^^
I can vouch for that.

I cannot vouch for the link, however.
Without mentionng who you work for, how bad was it compared to last years October sales?
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post #115 of 132 (permalink) Old 11-09-2007, 04:32 AM
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Personally down about 10% for the month. Jackets, coats, hoodies just collecting dust daily.

Freakin' Ravens ain't helping matters either.

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post #116 of 132 (permalink) Old 11-09-2007, 04:37 AM
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^^^^SO the infamous global warming claims another victim......Al would be proud.
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post #117 of 132 (permalink) Old 11-09-2007, 06:21 AM
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Retailers post worst October sales in 12 years (the link works no matter what it says below)

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Is October a big month for retailers? Or is it end of fiscal year for most retailers?

Last edited by Live; 11-09-2007 at 06:23 AM.
post #118 of 132 (permalink) Old 11-09-2007, 06:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Live View Post
Is October a big month for retailers? Or is it end of fiscal year for most retailers?
The fiscal year for most ends the last week of January (sometimes spills into Feb).

October is not a busy season for most retailers except specialty stores that deal with Halloween (costumes/candy/party/decorations). It's sort of a breather between Back to School and the 'Holiday' (Christmas, but that's another thread) season. It's the time when the stores change over to winter/holiday merchandise.

A cold October gets the season off to a good start as everyone rushes in to buy warm jackets, coats, thermal underwear, fleece and more. Too many days with temps in the 70's and 80's hurt this October's sales.

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post #119 of 132 (permalink) Old 11-09-2007, 11:58 AM
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McBear, I was wondering if you coud explain something to me regarding the US Fed and how they come to their conclusions when testifying such as what Benny did yesterday.

Now above we can see what Benny said as per Jay (I do not doubt it) but below you can see a highlighted excerpt where Benny demurringly said “We have not calculated the probability of a recession,” . So my question is how can he testify in front of Congress that the US is not now nor will be in the near future a reccession if the FED has not calculated the probability of one?

Small piece of his testimony
Testifying before the Joint Economic Committee, the Fed chairman said that the two rate cuts in September and October “should” be enough to keep the economy from slipping into a recession. Without being specific, he reinforced statements by other Fed policymakers that the economy would have to show signs of stalling out entirely before they would reduce rates again.

Asked if he saw any risks of a recession, Mr. Bernanke demurred. “We have not calculated the probability of a recession,” he responded. “Our assessment is for slower growth, but positive.”

Full article is located here:
Fed Chairman Says Economy Likely to Slow - New York Times

I am also curious about whether you yourself ever thought that the USD would sink as low as it has. I mean I tohught 1.44 USD to 1 Euro would be the spring point but today it hit 1.47 and the Pound is 2.11. I mean how low can it go..........
I know I'm not bear, but have heard the Chairman discuss your question about how they make decisions. The short answer is they do everything by the numbers, using vast stores of data and sophisticated measurement techniques to understand what is going on in the economy and what, if anything, the Fed should do about it. In fact, I believe he is the first Fed Chair to make decisions in this way. Others have used data, of course, but not as the primary mechanism for decision-making.

Don't believe everything you think
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post #120 of 132 (permalink) Old 11-09-2007, 10:04 PM
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"Most countries" have not moved to the Euro as the international currency of trade. Since it's inception in 2000, certain nations have diversified their reserves into the Euro & some trade has occured in non-US dollar. However,energy (oil,gas,uranium & coal) precious metals (gold,silver,platinum) & materials (industrial metals like copper,zinc,molybdenum etc) are bought & sold vis-a-vis the US dollar. Certain nations are diversifying into the Euro by buying Government bonds issued or payable in the Euro and it is this that China is alluding to in considering alternatives to diversifying it's foreign currency reserves. Exacerbating the situation is the fact that the present republican administration may have now run up more debt than a democrat admin might have. So a right wing gov has created massive debt for war instead of debt to take care of it's own people.Not being American,(and I thank my good US neighbors for allowing me to comment) if I HAD to make a choice, I'd rather go into debt helping my countrymen...and my country itself...than run up that same debt for war. I kinda feel that when it comes to Afghanistan, we all have some clear justification for kicking Al Quaida ass to the point of extinction wherever we find them.When it comes to Iraq though, the justification has largely melted away leaving the USA with crushing debt. The Bush presidency seems like people hopped on his train without being told beforehand what the cost of the trip was going to be.
You might want to check you notes. Oil went off the dollar earlier this year on most markets. The Central Banks on many of the Countries have moved away from the Dollar as their key.

I agree with your principle that it would be better to run up a debt for the people of a country instead of a war BUT the problem is, only $1.5T of the $4.5T that has been run up in the past seven years is attributed to overbudget IRAQ, Dept of Homeland Security and other post 9/11 issues. Fully $3T is just over spending the Budget. A TAX if you will of $500Billion per year [each year's excess is equal to all the Bush tax cuts combined]

In the history of the Republic we have generated $Nine Trillion in National Debt. Of that, $3.5Trillion was generated by Reagan/Bush1 and $4.5Trillion by Bush2. That is $8Trillion in National Debt in the history of the Republic by the three NeoCon Presidents.

And the INTEREST only is about $600Billion per year. To put that another way, the US has an Annual Budget of $3Trillion. 20% of that ANNUAL Budget now goes to paying INTEREST on Excessive Bush Spending. That is 20% of EVERY TAX DOLLAR.

McBear,
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Being smart is knowing the difference, in a sticky situation between a well delivered anecdote and a well delivered antidote - bear.
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