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post #71 of 88 (permalink) Old 11-01-2007, 07:00 AM Thread Starter
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^ This isn't a situation where you wake up one day, and some guys are cleaning your house & pool for free. (Hot guys, in your case). This is a situation where you've been waiting in line for ages to get into an exclusive property that you've always wanted to see, and find out that it's already overflowing with people who come out of the hedges around you and sneak in. While it may be reasonable to think "Don't they know? Find the guys without wristbands and throw them out", that's exactly what isn't happening - probably because they're pretty happy with how the lawn looks, and the pool is clean, and it's all very cheap, so what's the problem?

Nothing, if you're already inside. Nothing, if you own the joint. If you're standing outside like a jerkoff, in a line that's years long, then it's a big problem.
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post #72 of 88 (permalink) Old 11-01-2007, 07:08 AM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by mcbear View Post
No, it is completely on the rails. Are you suggesting that business just call a "Time Out" while everyone packs up, goes home, gets in line and gets processed and then gets back to work? As I said, the 20M in the workforce is a DoL number so we have to take it for what it is worth.

Even if the Turnaround Process is streamlined, the impact of an annualized 40Billion manhours disruption is unimaginable to an economy that already struggles with inflationary pressures on one side and recessionary pressures on another [and no, they don't balance each other out].
I'm not suggesting a time-out, but seriously, if you're running a business today and you even remotely suspect that a significant portion of your workforce is illegal, why aren't you developing a contingency plan? Businesses that can't get their heads wrapped around this and opt for martyrdom deserve to go out of business. The tab is finally coming due. Those businesses are artificial in nature.

The 'impact' looks huge from the standpoint of tax revenue, but examine the jobs these folks do - we're not loosing doctors, teachers, attorneys, police officers, etc. We're losing people who do the jobs that - at a cheap enough price - make sense to have someone else do. Cut our grass, clean our pool, cook our food. When you weigh this perceived impact against the real burden their presence here puts on state resources, I think it's easy to see that they basically level themselves out. Call me crazy. You lose tax revenue, yes, but you lose all of those kids from public schools, and all of those families from state aid programs, etc. My perception at least is that the numbers get small enough in the grand scheme of things to call it a wash.

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Originally Posted by mcbear
I don't like the options of sucking it up and accepting an Amnesty that, as some say rewards cutting in line but if it is the better option than negatively impacting the economy and causing collateral impact to people in jobs that have nothing to do with "cutting in line" then we have to look at what is the lesser of two evils.

Go over my posts on this for the past year. I have said from day one this is the hardest problem I have ever looked at trying to solve on any level, as the implications on every side of the sword are sharp and ready to cut hard and deep. It took my trip to California and looking at their economy and talking to folks in the medical industry, food industry and a friend who teaches Economics at Berkeley to finally get most of the boxes drawn on the whiteboard. I saw things that living in a much whiter, less diverse Midwest did not allow me to see firsthand.

From the now two years that I have been looking at this and talking with folks about this, the only solutions that I see are to
1)stop further people from entering illegally,
2) Identify who is here illegally, from Mexican to Indian to Canadian,
3) deport all felony criminals,
4) Tier Status all remaining Aliens. ID their work, their employer, industry and if their employer has been knowingly employing them illegally, they become the official "sponsor" of that person and their family, paying into their insurance fund, workman's comp fund and making the government fiscally whole. Aliens on welfare, without work or sponsorship will get a feee bus ride to the border.

Each state will have to set up a Hearing Board to address the cases that fall between the cracks or outside normal criteria as they bear the brunt of the costs of each Alien.

This is about the only way that the problem can be addressed AND the Economy can continue to function without serious impacts or outright destruction to certain elements of it.
It will take an eternity to sell amnesty, no matter how well intentioned or reasoned, and in the end, it's still unfair. It's pushing a rope. If such a plan can't be sold in the next 6 - 12 months, I think it's time to punt.
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post #73 of 88 (permalink) Old 11-01-2007, 09:27 PM
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I'm not suggesting a time-out, but seriously, if you're running a business today and you even remotely suspect that a significant portion of your workforce is illegal, why aren't you developing a contingency plan? Businesses that can't get their heads wrapped around this and opt for martyrdom deserve to go out of business. The tab is finally coming due. Those businesses are artificial in nature.
Actually yes you were suggesting a Time Out.

How are the businesses artificial in nature? They have been using the labor force for DECADES. Let me be more clear DECADES . And some of the little businesses that you are perceiving are Del Monte, Monstanto, ADM. They can't just call up Manpower and ask for 15000 LEGAL pickers for the next 4 weeks that have skills in the industry. Those skills will all be watching everyone in America bitch about prices skyrocketing on Telemundo.

Do you even have a concept of 40 billion man hours per year?

Quote:
The 'impact' looks huge from the standpoint of tax revenue, but examine the jobs these folks do - we're not loosing doctors, teachers, attorneys, police officers, etc. We're losing people who do the jobs that - at a cheap enough price - make sense to have someone else do. Cut our grass, clean our pool, cook our food. When you weigh this perceived impact against the real burden their presence here puts on state resources, I think it's easy to see that they basically level themselves out. Call me crazy. You lose tax revenue, yes, but you lose all of those kids from public schools, and all of those families from state aid programs, etc. My perception at least is that the numbers get small enough in the grand scheme of things to call it a wash.
Let's do examine what we are losing. Start with those doctors. Now, who is going to clean the hospitals where they work? Pick up much of the garbage? Dry Clean those cute white jackets? What about landscape the hospital? Paint the walls? Tar the roof? Patch the parking lot? In many cities those jobs are just about 100% Undocumented Worker.

And according to statistics by the California Department of Revenue [again largest state with the 'problem"] the tax/resources don't wash, the tax revenue generated by Illegals is 30% higher than the draw they have on the economy.

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It will take an eternity to sell amnesty, no matter how well intentioned or reasoned, and in the end, it's still unfair. It's pushing a rope. If such a plan can't be sold in the next 6 - 12 months, I think it's time to punt.
I don't think it will take an eternity because problem solvers will figure out that there is no other logical solution. It has to have Closed Borders as Number 1 priority and any Amnesty has to have strict rules and compliance, not just a blanket.

But any send back plan just has no logic, no practical value and no reason other than spite. It is alot like Bush's Iraq plan. It sounded good on the first page but then we all found out that there is no second, third, or fourth page. No send back plan has practical contingencies to address the devastating impacts on the economy, the logistical nightmare of implementation - the tactical exercise of just rounding up 20 Million people for anything and the strategic exercise of processing, transporting and insuring that no US citizens are rounded up in zeal.

And of course someone is going to have to bake cookies and make kool-aid for all the employers while they are in "Time-Out" waiting on their 20 Million workers to be reprocessed back into the country. Now THAT is a potential growth industry in which to invest - we need a seven year business plan.

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post #74 of 88 (permalink) Old 11-01-2007, 09:33 PM
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Why all the fuss about illegals all of a sudden? As if this shit just happened overnight. Don't people realize we still get more from them than they take at this point? Its pretty basic math.
I think it is just the Talk Radio kids got focused on the issue and when even the Weepublicans started piling on Bushie it became pretty much a full time job. Of course Lou "Just Another Brick in the Wall" Dobbs is also fanning the flames.

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post #75 of 88 (permalink) Old 11-02-2007, 07:15 AM Thread Starter
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Actually yes you were suggesting a Time Out.
Perhaps I'm unclear on what you mean, but no, I don't think I am. I'm not familiar with Continuity of Business Plans that call for the entire world to come to a halt.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mcbear
How are the businesses artificial in nature? They have been using the labor force for DECADES. Let me be more clear DECADES . And some of the little businesses that you are perceiving are Del Monte, Monstanto, ADM. They can't just call up Manpower and ask for 15000 LEGAL pickers for the next 4 weeks that have skills in the industry. Those skills will all be watching everyone in America bitch about prices skyrocketing on Telemundo.
This is venturing into hyperbole very quickly.

Any business which fails to comply with either the letter or spirit of our nation's laws, and is only profitable because of such activities (we'll call it cheating for short) is 'artificial'. They're fake, because if they did play by the rules, their models would be unsustainable. I don't care how long it's been going on, it's never been right, and I think it's idiotic to sit around the board room table with eyes shut, ears plugged, chanting "blaaah blaaah blaaah" when it's very clear that the heat is being turned up in an area which will affect them. I don't care how big the company is, if you can't work around these facts, you deserve to be bankrupt.

Personally, I think you're worried for these guys more than they are themselves. They'll figure it out - that's what good companies do, and bad companies don't. I'm willing to pay more - much more if necessary - to see this shake out.


Quote:
Originally Posted by mcbear
Let's do examine what we are losing. Start with those doctors. Now, who is going to clean the hospitals where they work? Pick up much of the garbage? Dry Clean those cute white jackets? What about landscape the hospital? Paint the walls? Tar the roof? Patch the parking lot? In many cities those jobs are just about 100% Undocumented Worker.
The answer to all of those questions is "someone else". We aren't talking about the extinction of our species. If work needs to be done, someone will do it. Secretaries may have to do some janitorial work. Volunteers may have to do more than just be pleasant faces at the bedside. Maybe some of the hospital's kids can at least keep the grass cut. Subcontractors do the rest of that stuff (there are parking lot patching machines that one person can operate), and if they want to stay in business, they'll figure out how to do the work. Maybe the owner of the company will need to cancel a vacation...maybe his legal workforce will need to work overtime. Maybe all of them will need to sacrifice some of their ill-gotten gains for the purpose of self-preservation. They'll figure it out. Defeatism gets you nowhere.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mcbear
And according to statistics by the California Department of Revenue [again largest state with the 'problem"] the tax/resources don't wash, the tax revenue generated by Illegals is 30% higher than the draw they have on the economy.
I'll defer to your numbers in California; I don't think that's universally true. What do I know.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mcbear
...No send back plan has practical contingencies to address the devastating impacts on the economy, the logistical nightmare of implementation - the tactical exercise of just rounding up 20 Million people for anything and the strategic exercise of processing, transporting and insuring that no US citizens are rounded up in zeal.
Look, if these people are unemployable, un-transportable, and un-inhabitable without the proper documentation, I can assure you we'll need to do nothing more than set up bus routes to take care of returning the ones who don't figure it out on their own that they need to go back home. As the article I posted to begin this thread points out, many of them already have. The law in Oklahoma makes it a felony to transport, employ, or house an illegal alien - not to be an illegal alien. We're punishing the people who have served to enable this situation, which is overwhelmingly considered to be fair. This isn't a law mandating some internment system. The police aren't going around looking for illegal aliens. That said, if you get pulled over or arrested for something, and you are an illegal alien, you're going back to your country of origin.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mcbear
And of course someone is going to have to bake cookies and make kool-aid for all the employers while they are in "Time-Out" waiting on their 20 Million workers to be reprocessed back into the country. Now THAT is a potential growth industry in which to invest - we need a seven year business plan.
Funny stuff, despite the pessimism and defeatism. If only it were as simple as waving a magic wand, and poof - 20,000,000 workers disappear in an instant.
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post #76 of 88 (permalink) Old 11-02-2007, 07:20 AM
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Originally Posted by QBNCGAR View Post
Any business which fails to comply with either the letter or spirit of our nation's laws, and is only profitable because of such activities (we'll call it cheating for short) is 'artificial'. They're fake, because if they did play by the rules, their models would be unsustainable. I don't care how long it's been going on, it's never been right, and I think it's idiotic to sit around the board room table with eyes shut, ears plugged, chanting "blaaah blaaah blaaah" when it's very clear that the heat is being turned up in an area which will affect them. I don't care how big the company is, if you can't work around these facts, you deserve to be bankrupt.

Personally, I think you're worried for these guys more than they are themselves. They'll figure it out - that's what good companies do, and bad companies don't. I'm willing to pay more - much more if necessary - to see this shake out.
It has long been my experience at my low little level in the business world that the companies that survive simply find better ways to cheat. Sorry to beat the pessimist's drum here but the mantra is usually, "Bottom line...just win, baby!"

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post #77 of 88 (permalink) Old 11-02-2007, 07:32 AM Thread Starter
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^ Those companies certainly exist. I've not worked for one, nor would I.

For instance, my company may very well be impacted by this law (directly and indirectly). There are some who say it won't stand, because there exists no concrete way for a company to validate the true residency status of a job applicant. We'll have to wait for a lawsuit to see, but I think it speaks volumes that - even prior to it's first day on the books - we've seen a dramatic decrease in certain types of workers, and a dramatic increase in help wanted signs.

That said, I wouldn't be able to work for a company that knowingly and actively solicited illegal laborers, just because they were able to do so under the umbrella of adherence to the rules in place at the time. If we knew we were hiring illegals, and we purposely kept wages for new hires depressed rather than pay what the legal market demanded, we deserve whatever ills befall us when that check comes due.

Things should be more expensive than they are. Fine. When things become more expensive, everyone will need to make more. Fine. This is how it's worked forever in America, because we're (supposed to be) a free market. It's not sum-zero however, because we 'compete' with products & services from countries with extremely anticompetitive practices. They're also artificially depressing wages & prices. Thank NAFTA, and some dunderheaded trade agreements & labor laws for that. Thank the nearsighted practice of off-shoring. Like it, don't like it...it is what it is.

Only one way to fix it - vote smart, pay attention.
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post #78 of 88 (permalink) Old 11-02-2007, 08:50 AM
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^

Only one way to fix it - vote smart, pay attention.
I've read all the posts in this interesting thread, and a great deal of thought has gone into most of them. I am very impressed.

However, the topic appears to be skewed by the fact that the problem here is with people being in the 'wrong' place, and emotions are naturally coming to the fore.

Just to think outside the box, why not consider the problem from a medical or an engineering aspect.

If a medical patient was found to be suffering through eating or drinking a poisoned substance the first thing to be done would be to stop the ingestions. Only then could the condition of the body be addressed.

Likewise, if your car is leaking coolant into the engine oil because of a damaged head gasket, that is where you go to fix the problem. There is nothing to be gained by tinkering with the water or the oil.

So, logically, the first thing to be done to permanently solve your 'illegals' problem would be to put a moritorium on all immigration. With that in place, the problem could be dealt with in a fair and dispassionate manner.....
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post #79 of 88 (permalink) Old 11-02-2007, 09:09 AM Thread Starter
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So, logically, the first thing to be done to permanently solve your 'illegals' problem would be to put a moritorium on all immigration. With that in place, the problem could be dealt with in a fair and dispassionate manner.....
There already exists a 'moratorium' on the kind of behavior that we call "illegal immigration". It's not supposed to happen, but it does anyway. If we stop all immigration, we unduly punish the people who are playing by the rules - this is even more of an insult than the amnesty-based solutions, and sends an unnecessarily negative message.

There are three groups at fault here: 1) The companies and individuals who employ and enable illegal aliens to live among us consequence-free, 2) The illegal aliens themselves, and 3) The federal government, which has failed to provide a system under which employers and state agencies (etc) can quickly and accurately validate the true residency status of an applicant.

Those are the entities which must, in fairness, bear the vast majority of the burden for fixing this problem. The new law in Oklahoma gives each of them some inspiration to comply with the spirit of our laws.
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post #80 of 88 (permalink) Old 11-02-2007, 09:39 AM
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Perhaps I'm unclear on what you mean, but no, I don't think I am. I'm not familiar with Continuity of Business Plans that call for the entire world to come to a halt.



This is venturing into hyperbole very quickly.

Any business which fails to comply with either the letter or spirit of our nation's laws, and is only profitable because of such activities (we'll call it cheating for short) is 'artificial'. They're fake, because if they did play by the rules, their models would be unsustainable. I don't care how long it's been going on, it's never been right, and I think it's idiotic to sit around the board room table with eyes shut, ears plugged, chanting "blaaah blaaah blaaah" when it's very clear that the heat is being turned up in an area which will affect them. I don't care how big the company is, if you can't work around these facts, you deserve to be bankrupt.

Personally, I think you're worried for these guys more than they are themselves. They'll figure it out - that's what good companies do, and bad companies don't. I'm willing to pay more - much more if necessary - to see this shake out.




The answer to all of those questions is "someone else". We aren't talking about the extinction of our species. If work needs to be done, someone will do it. Secretaries may have to do some janitorial work. Volunteers may have to do more than just be pleasant faces at the bedside. Maybe some of the hospital's kids can at least keep the grass cut. Subcontractors do the rest of that stuff (there are parking lot patching machines that one person can operate), and if they want to stay in business, they'll figure out how to do the work. Maybe the owner of the company will need to cancel a vacation...maybe his legal workforce will need to work overtime. Maybe all of them will need to sacrifice some of their ill-gotten gains for the purpose of self-preservation. They'll figure it out. Defeatism gets you nowhere.



I'll defer to your numbers in California; I don't think that's universally true. What do I know.



Look, if these people are unemployable, un-transportable, and un-inhabitable without the proper documentation, I can assure you we'll need to do nothing more than set up bus routes to take care of returning the ones who don't figure it out on their own that they need to go back home. As the article I posted to begin this thread points out, many of them already have. The law in Oklahoma makes it a felony to transport, employ, or house an illegal alien - not to be an illegal alien. We're punishing the people who have served to enable this situation, which is overwhelmingly considered to be fair. This isn't a law mandating some internment system. The police aren't going around looking for illegal aliens. That said, if you get pulled over or arrested for something, and you are an illegal alien, you're going back to your country of origin.



Funny stuff, despite the pessimism and defeatism. If only it were as simple as waving a magic wand, and poof - 20,000,000 workers disappear in an instant.
You have answered with a lot of "they will figure it out" and "good companies will succeed" and "bad companies are artificial" but not once have you actually addressed the B, C, D, E and F issues of what is done after you initiate a Send Back plan. Nor has anyone else. That is the problem. It is all talk. "SEND BACK and..." but there is nothing after and but "somebody else will figure it out and I guess it will cost a bunch". You have talked a whole bunch about how amnesty WON'T work, get down to nuts and bolts and SHOW how SEND BACK WILL work. Cut and paste articles from "those smart people who figure it out" or look at it yourself.

So far all I have seen is "I want them gone, your plan sux and I hope someone else will figure this out for me".

McBear,
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Last edited by mcbear; 11-02-2007 at 09:42 AM.
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