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post #61 of 88 (permalink) Old 10-31-2007, 08:06 PM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by mcbear View Post
Again I am going to use the 20M number as it is the only one I have at this point.

Using $7.00 per hour figures [which I believe to be low average] and normal work hours you are talking about moving $300Billion in annual labor force out of the Economy in a "so be it" cast off of the impact. The effects on inflation, construction industry, food industry, service industries would be somewhat mind-numbing. Add about $12 for every one of the 40BILLION initial man hours displaced by such a move, and then the trickle down of jobs lost from businesses that cannot find comparable labor or have to raise prices so much that their market goes away.

And then you say that "Nothing will send the entire economy into ruins just because we disrupt and regulate the flow of aliens into our society - the federal government won't allow that to happen.". So how much TAX DOLLARS do you think that kind of bail out would cost? You have railed against paying HIGHER taxes for bailing out folks yet now that it supports an idea you like, you are all for it.

We only have about 150Million working population out of our 300Million population. The rest are children, students, retirees, stay at homes, unemployed [7.2M], prisoners and others. [source: DoL] . We have 20Million Illegal Aliens which are intertwined into that number by way of assigned SSNs in some cases, fake IDs, double IDs etc. We also have the undetermined "under the table number. If you take 20Million out of the 150Million number you are removing 1/8th of the workforce. More like 1/6 when you count the "under the table" guys.

We already have a depressed housing market. Energy and food price increases are propping up the growth in GDP. The dollar is at all time lows. Heavy manufacturing is near nonexistent. Even white collar jobs are outsourced or H1Bed Are you expecting a government bailout to support a safety net that keeps this country out of a bone hard depression if we move to this next level of destruction of the economy?
Like you said, no easy answers.

Where your post goes off the rails is the assumption that the 20 million aliens (which I don't believe to all be part of the workforce, either) would be permanently exponged from the country with no hope of returning, ever.

What I'm advocating, and I think the non-amnesty crowd is advocating, is that these folks go home, and get back in line. Should the process for documenting these 'immigrant workers' be faster & more efficient? Absolutely. I think the impact wouldn't be insignificant, but it would be made as short as possible while honoring the tenet of fairness which amnesty flagrantly disparages. The government would do what is necessary - hopefully opting for a more intelligent solution than simply subsidize companies, with which I do not agree - to ensure that the impact to our economy (and indeed, that of the world) are minimized.
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post #62 of 88 (permalink) Old 10-31-2007, 08:44 PM
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Like you said, no easy answers.

Where your post goes off the rails is the assumption that the 20 million aliens (which I don't believe to all be part of the workforce, either) would be permanently exponged from the country with no hope of returning, ever.

What I'm advocating, and I think the non-amnesty crowd is advocating, is that these folks go home, and get back in line. Should the process for documenting these 'immigrant workers' be faster & more efficient? Absolutely. I think the impact wouldn't be insignificant, but it would be made as short as possible while honoring the tenet of fairness which amnesty flagrantly disparages. The government would do what is necessary - hopefully opting for a more intelligent solution than simply subsidize companies, with which I do not agree - to ensure that the impact to our economy (and indeed, that of the world) are minimized.

Precisely that.

Jim
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post #63 of 88 (permalink) Old 10-31-2007, 08:46 PM
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Originally Posted by QBNCGAR View Post
Like you said, no easy answers.

Where your post goes off the rails is the assumption that the 20 million aliens (which I don't believe to all be part of the workforce, either) would be permanently exponged from the country with no hope of returning, ever.

What I'm advocating, and I think the non-amnesty crowd is advocating, is that these folks go home, and get back in line. Should the process for documenting these 'immigrant workers' be faster & more efficient? Absolutely. I think the impact wouldn't be insignificant, but it would be made as short as possible while honoring the tenet of fairness which amnesty flagrantly disparages. The government would do what is necessary - hopefully opting for a more intelligent solution than simply subsidize companies, with which I do not agree - to ensure that the impact to our economy (and indeed, that of the world) are minimized.
No, it is completely on the rails. Are you suggesting that business just call a "Time Out" while everyone packs up, goes home, gets in line and gets processed and then gets back to work? As I said, the 20M in the workforce is a DoL number so we have to take it for what it is worth.

Even if the Turnaround Process is streamlined, the impact of an annualized 40Billion manhours disruption is unimaginable to an economy that already struggles with inflationary pressures on one side and recessionary pressures on another [and no, they don't balance each other out].

I don't like the options of sucking it up and accepting an Amnesty that, as some say rewards cutting in line but if it is the better option than negatively impacting the economy and causing collateral impact to people in jobs that have nothing to do with "cutting in line" then we have to look at what is the lesser of two evils.

Go over my posts on this for the past year. I have said from day one this is the hardest problem I have ever looked at trying to solve on any level, as the implications on every side of the sword are sharp and ready to cut hard and deep. It took my trip to California and looking at their economy and talking to folks in the medical industry, food industry and a friend who teaches Economics at Berkeley to finally get most of the boxes drawn on the whiteboard. I saw things that living in a much whiter, less diverse Midwest did not allow me to see firsthand.

From the now two years that I have been looking at this and talking with folks about this, the only solutions that I see are to
1)stop further people from entering illegally,
2) Identify who is here illegally, from Mexican to Indian to Canadian,
3) deport all felony criminals,
4) Tier Status all remaining Aliens. ID their work, their employer, industry and if their employer has been knowingly employing them illegally, they become the official "sponsor" of that person and their family, paying into their insurance fund, workman's comp fund and making the government fiscally whole. Aliens on welfare, without work or sponsorship will get a feee bus ride to the border.

Each state will have to set up a Hearing Board to address the cases that fall between the cracks or outside normal criteria as they bear the brunt of the costs of each Alien.

This is about the only way that the problem can be addressed AND the Economy can continue to function without serious impacts or outright destruction to certain elements of it.

McBear,
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post #64 of 88 (permalink) Old 10-31-2007, 09:00 PM
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Originally Posted by QBNCGAR View Post
What I'm advocating, and I think the non-amnesty crowd is advocating, is that these folks go home, and get back in line. Should the process for documenting these 'immigrant workers' be faster & more efficient? Absolutely. I think the impact wouldn't be insignificant, but it would be made as short as possible while honoring the tenet of fairness which amnesty flagrantly disparages. The government would do what is necessary - hopefully opting for a more intelligent solution than simply subsidize companies, with which I do not agree - to ensure that the impact to our economy (and indeed, that of the world) are minimized.
One point on the "go home and get back in line and then come back and continue to contribute to the US economy" philosophy.

I just saw a story yesterday where the Department of Homeland Security made a system to ID ALL Dock Workers at US Ports. The VERY simple idea was to have a biometric badge that ID'ed the worker, that was read at the gate and insured that only the 750,000 workers could get into the secure ports.

The TWO YEAR projection for the program is now entering its SIXTH year and DHS said yesterday in Congressional hearings that it might be TWO more years before it can be implemented.

Google DHS Ports Biometric to get an historic rundown on the program.

So "Should the process ... be faster & more efficient" is really a euphemism for "I know it will take forever but a bad plan is better than no plan at all". I believe that is W's motto.

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post #65 of 88 (permalink) Old 10-31-2007, 09:01 PM
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No mas

While that proposal is well reasoned and thought out, and intriging, it does absolutely nothing to discourage the millions of illegal aliens that continue pouring into this country, nothing to stop the country (Mexico) which encourages it in the first place, at its highest levels, and it once again puts the stamp of legal approval on illegal acts, and immoral ones such as line jumping

Amnesty much like this, only more sweeping was granted in 1986, and was supposed to solve the problem once and for all.

Instead, it just got worse.

Won't get fooled again.

Jim
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post #66 of 88 (permalink) Old 10-31-2007, 09:06 PM
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Precisely that.
I am guessing that someone in the local press has written an article that addresses how much impact to the California economy there would be if all the pickers and service workers left.

Any numbers?

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post #67 of 88 (permalink) Old 10-31-2007, 09:39 PM
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Some Numbers

I did some digging to try and pin down a real number for the "number of Undocumented Alien Worker". The closest number that I could get as an "average" was about 20Million. The number of Illegal Aliens is somewhat all over the map spiking up to 38Million based on one extrapolation [his methodology looked solid but his slant was dubious which tends to color the number]

I settled back on the DoL number which is supported somewhat by the INS and DHS although both complain that their numbers are too low and should be higher [I somehow feel that statement is attached to their budget application].

As for impact to the California Economy [the largest single impact since it has by far the largest number of illegal aliens - somewhere around 8Million]. According to the Urban Institute the Illegal Alien population contributes $20Billion in taxes to the California Economy. Punch that number out to estimate $120Billion in Payroll injected into the California Economic machine annually. That goes to Ralphs and McDonalds and K-Mart and AutoZone and Hospitals and drugstores and taxes and taxes and...that is a lot to pull out of the economy.

McBear,
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post #68 of 88 (permalink) Old 10-31-2007, 09:42 PM
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While that proposal is well reasoned and thought out, and intriging, it does absolutely nothing to discourage the millions of illegal aliens that continue pouring into this country, nothing to stop the country (Mexico) which encourages it in the first place, at its highest levels, and it once again puts the stamp of legal approval on illegal acts, and immoral ones such as line jumping

Amnesty much like this, only more sweeping was granted in 1986, and was supposed to solve the problem once and for all.

Instead, it just got worse.

Won't get fooled again.
That is why Close the Border has to be Number 1. If we, as a country can't do that, the rest is just Administrative Masturbation.

While looking up the numbers I did note that there was an amazing leap in numbers starting in 2001 and progressing to present. Estimates were only around 9Million on the 2000 census.

McBear,
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Last edited by mcbear; 10-31-2007 at 09:44 PM.
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post #69 of 88 (permalink) Old 10-31-2007, 10:11 PM
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While looking up the numbers I did note that there was an amazing leap in numbers starting in 2001 and progressing to present. Estimates were only around 9Million on the 2000 census.
Reasons the numbers went up were the Mexican govt. will not improve their own economy, the exploding populaion growth south of the border and the carrot the Dems have been dangling regarding amnesty and a green card for every illegal. Maybe Webster's just needs to change the offficial meaning of the word illegal to make it right?
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post #70 of 88 (permalink) Old 11-01-2007, 12:12 AM
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Why all the fuss about illegals all of a sudden? As if this shit just happened overnight. Don't people realize we still get more from them than they take at this point? Its pretty basic math.
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