Will President Bush bomb Iran? - Page 4 - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #31 of 51 (permalink) Old 09-04-2007, 11:52 AM
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Originally Posted by GermanStar
Way out of proportion. Iran has no ability to strike back at us, whatsoever.
You are correct in that they don't have the ability to strike militarily at the US homeland. They do, however, have the ability to strike economically, and that is a far more dangerous thing. They also have the ability to be a major influence in the region.

I'm still undecided on how much of a threat Iran poses. I think they pose a greater threat today than they did 7 years ago because the present US administration has pursued a more belligerent foreign policy against them. But I also think that Iran's ongoing support of terrorism can't be ignored, and this is nothing new. The 1982 Marine Barracks Bombing in Beirut is the suspected work of Iranians.
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post #32 of 51 (permalink) Old 09-04-2007, 12:00 PM
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The one thing that is absolutely clear, is that we pose a greater threat to them than we did 7 years ago, to which they have reacted, and not surprisingly. In regard to their potential increase in influence across the region, that was an expected (unavoidable?) consequence of invading Iraq, thus a part of the mysterious overall plan of the Bush administration.

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post #33 of 51 (permalink) Old 09-04-2007, 12:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Shane
The Iranian threat is being blown out of proportion.
That's what was said about Germany (x2), Japan, etc... It was wrong then and it is wrong now w/ regard to Iran.

Iran--and Syria--could really cost the US and the entire region of the ME big time if we just watch and wait. As we succeed in our war on terror and begin to move out of the region, militarily and economically, we cannot afford to have Iran slip in to fill the vacuum that will be created. For the sake of the democracies we are helping to create across the region it is absolutely essential that we not leave the door open for the totalitarian regimes in the area to take control and make everything we have done to date go for naught. As the President said in Iraq yesterday: "When we leave it will be from a position of strength, not weakness." And that goes for the fledgling democracies as well--they must be strong enough to withstand whatever the tyrants throw at them.

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post #34 of 51 (permalink) Old 09-04-2007, 12:07 PM
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Originally Posted by GermanStar
The one thing that is absolutely clear, is that we pose a greater threat to them than we did 7 years ago, to which they have reacted, and not surprisingly. In regard to their potential increase in influence across the region, that was an expected (unavoidable?) consequence of invading Iraq, thus a part of the mysterious overall plan of the Bush administration.
I don't disagree with this. I also think that their pursuit of nuclear weapons is a logical extension of their observation of US/DPRK relations as well as a direct reaction to the present US policy towards them specifically.

All I'm saying is that I think it is much easier to make a legitimate argument about the threat that Iran poses than it ever was for Iraq. I just believe that they present enough of a threat as to assure their safety from invasion.
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post #35 of 51 (permalink) Old 09-04-2007, 12:15 PM
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Originally Posted by jlomon
I don't disagree with this. I also think that their pursuit of nuclear weapons is a logical extension of their observation of US/DPRK relations as well as a direct reaction to the present US policy towards them specifically.

All I'm saying is that I think it is much easier to make a legitimate argument about the threat that Iran poses than it ever was for Iraq. I just believe that they present enough of a threat as to assure their safety from invasion.
No one is talking about "invasion." Everything I hear is that we will do just enough to let them know they won't get a free pass if they start to muck around w/ the democracies we are helping to create. It will be more of a message than a military excursion.

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post #36 of 51 (permalink) Old 09-04-2007, 12:30 PM
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Iran has in it's current arsenal a nice collection of Chinese Silkworm missiles. For as long as I can remember watching Iran as a player they have had these missiles available to shut down the Straits of Hormuz in a heartbeat.

They also have access to nuclear materials. By THEIR accounting enough for Intermediate Range Nuclear Tipped Missiles. In the UN accounting, they are not there yet. In the US perspective, depending on who you listen to, they either DO or DO NOT have sufficient materials to make BIG bombs.

If we plan a strike, it will have to be an all encompassing strike, taking out ALL potential materials AND all offensive Silkworm Shore to Ship missiles. Considering we have been telegraphing signals since Axis of Evil days that Iran is on our Target board, you have to figure they might just have some hidden away from obvious sites. Then you have to worry about aftermath, dirty bombs, enraging yet another civilian population against the United States.

Then we have to plan for the aftermath. This administration has a ZERO record on dealing with what happens after you kick someone in the nuts. With Iraq, we knew the result would not be too dangerous as we apparently knew there were no WMDs. IRAN has WMDs.

I am not sure we are prepared to deal with a country who does not care what the ramifications are if they tactically use their weapons against us, either in Iraq or Afghanistan, in the Persian Gulf or here at home.

If we attack first, they are in a win-win situation. Anything they do is considered defensive and a "strike back" and they gain respect of radical Muslims.

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post #37 of 51 (permalink) Old 09-04-2007, 12:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Jayhawk
No one is talking about "invasion." Everything I hear is that we will do just enough to let them know they won't get a free pass if they start to muck around w/ the democracies we are helping to create. It will be more of a message than a military excursion.
It protects Iran from any form of military intervention, not just invasion but also tactical air strikes.

Yes, that's a brilliant strategy. Send them a message like that and watch what happens to oil tanker traffic in the Straits of Hormuz. Your nation's dependence on petroleum is your Achilles Heel and Iran is in a unique position to strike it. If Hurricane Katrina sent oil up by over a dollar a gallon, what do you think would be the result if Iran starts to hit back? Or worse, if Iranian-sponsored terrorists strike the Saudi oil facilities?

Let's say the US sends them that message and Iran chooses to up the ante - what then? And please frame your response in the realm of what is possible.
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post #38 of 51 (permalink) Old 09-04-2007, 12:39 PM
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Originally Posted by mcbear
Iran has in it's current arsenal a nice collection of Chinese Silkworm missiles. For as long as I can remember watching Iran as a player they have had these missiles available to shut down the Straits of Hormuz in a heartbeat.

They also have access to nuclear materials. By THEIR accounting enough for Intermediate Range Nuclear Tipped Missiles. In the UN accounting, they are not there yet. In the US perspective, depending on who you listen to, they either DO or DO NOT have sufficient materials to make BIG bombs.

If we plan a strike, it will have to be an all encompassing strike, taking out ALL potential materials AND all offensive Silkworm Shore to Ship missiles. Considering we have been telegraphing signals since Axis of Evil days that Iran is on our Target board, you have to figure they might just have some hidden away from obvious sites. Then you have to worry about aftermath, dirty bombs, enraging yet another civilian population against the United States.
....................
If we attack first, they are in a win-win situation. Anything they do is considered defensive and a "strike back" and they gain respect of radical Muslims.
Well aren't you the little general? Must be a Four-Star at least. Have you mailed you military scenario to the Pentagon. I'm sure they will be anxious to see it before moving ahead w/ any further plans for military action worldwide.

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post #39 of 51 (permalink) Old 09-04-2007, 12:46 PM
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Originally Posted by jlomon
It protects Iran from any form of military intervention, not just invasion but also tactical air strikes.

Yes, that's a brilliant strategy. Send them a message like that and watch what happens to oil tanker traffic in the Straits of Hormuz. Your nation's dependence on petroleum is your Achilles Heel and Iran is in a unique position to strike it. If Hurricane Katrina sent oil up by over a dollar a gallon, what do you think would be the result if Iran starts to hit back? Or worse, if Iranian-sponsored terrorists strike the Saudi oil facilities?

Let's say the US sends them that message and Iran chooses to up the ante - what then? And please frame your response in the realm of what is possible.
"Telegraphing our intentions to the enemy" is something we have done many times, and it has been very effective in demoralizing them while they wait and worry. Just look at Iraq--twice--and Afghanistan. We practically laid out a road-map for the invasions and we were in w/in a few days or weeks. They never knew what hit them though they knew very well what was coming. I can assure you and our little general, Gen. Bear, that what we do and when we do it will anticipate most, if not all, major contingencies.

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post #40 of 51 (permalink) Old 09-04-2007, 01:29 PM
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Well aren't you the little general? Must be a Four-Star at least. Have you mailed you military scenario to the Pentagon. I'm sure they will be anxious to see it before moving ahead w/ any further plans for military action worldwide.
I just call um like I see um.

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