Date registered: Dec 2006
Vehicle: 2013 VW Golf Sportwagen TDI, 2011 Mazda 2, 2000 E320 4Matic Wagon (retired),1994 C280 (retired)
Location: Toronto, Canada
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Quoted: 1 Post(s)
Striking Iran in any capacity would just be a bad move. Unlike Iraq, Iran has the capacity to strike back. Iraq had been softened-up for more than a decade after being defeated in Gulf War I. The world economy had also adjusted to not having a significant amount of oil from Iraq due to the UN sanctions, so there wasn't as much to fear about an oil price spike. None of these conditions exist with Iran.
Iran has enough military capacity to wreak havoc with the Straits of Hormuz, even if the US applies overwhelming force through air strikes. Just a few sunken oil tankers would be enough to slow down or stop commercial shipping as tanker owners wont risk their assets, and insurance companies wont insure the ships. Iran is a major supplier of oil to world markets, even if none of that supply goes to the US. If that supply was to be disrupted, along with the supply from Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, it would be an absolute catastrophe for both the US and world economies.
Like it or not, Iran will have to be negotiated with, for pretty much the same reasons that North Korea gets negotiations instead of an invasion.