Originally Posted by mcbear
ReRead post 54 for your answers. And yes, there has been a shift in counting with the new Illegal issue. No they aren't suppose to get unemployment so they would not be counted in #1 but you know that.
I think the numbers used to be a useful guide to reflect both unemployment and true employment. That was when this country had closer to "full employment" and you had less folks that dropped out of the system completely after being fired/laid off/early retired/etc. Now, I don't think the number is an accurate reflection of reality.
Same with the employment number. It counts number of W4 payments into the system on a given month, not reflecting how many of those are stolen or made up SSN for Illegal Alien employment. That number is well over 10M which further skews the total charts and ratios.
Just my .0367 cents.
I didn't make myself clear.
What i was trying to say is that if there is no way to count some sort of the composite number (people illegally drawing unemployment benefits, people illegally working, people dropped from employment or unemployment roles for a variety of uncounted reasons) then there is probably not an accurate way of estimating their contribution to the composite number.
We are left with conjecture and opinion in lieu of data.
I suspect that this is not a new phenomenon.
If it is not new, and if analysts, theoreticians and policy-makers use it despite the contribution of flaws (whose magnitude is not known definitively) then the chances are that the analysts, theoreticians, and policy-makers have a long history of being (is there a delicate way of phrasing this?) WRONG, to an unknown degree.
OR, it could be that the analysts, theoreticians, and policy-makers are aware of the flaw and have chosen to discount it, for whatever reason.
What reasons are possible?
They don't give a damned and cook the books to fit their preconceptions;
They don't give a damned and devise unrealistic outcomes based on flawed data;
They do give a damned and assume that the degree of influence from the unkonw sources is negligible compared to the problem that they are working with.
My bet is that all 3 are in play, to some degree. Also unknown.