Originally Posted by mcbear
I am not sure how you can say "If the revenue stream continues as it is now..." we will be in Surplus since we are still spending a deficit $200B per year. So, IF we get to ZERO deficit we then have to pay $600B on interest on just what has already been spent. Where is your logic?
I don't think we are going to just have Business As Usual. Boomers are quickly heading to retirement, the first are already there. That moves the largest generation of revenue generators [in their prime revenue years] off the primary tax books [payroll taxes] and puts many of them on the demand side of the equation. I believe the current revenue stream is going to see many changes as folks take their current financial conditions into retirement/maintenance mode. That will cut the Revenue Stream as people become more risk adverse and move money from mutual fund accounts that generate moderate taxes to those that generate little or no taxes for retirement accounts.
Personally I believe we are going to see, no matter who sits in the White House or holds a majority in Congress, a paradigm shift in the next five or so years. Too many things are starting to converge for it not to happen. When you add in the Global Environmental issues, fundamental changes in healthcare issues [retirement of the boomers again] and whatever the results of the Middle East debacle [which include how we deal with Global Terror] we are looking at a major change from status quo.
Because the rate of increase in revenue is outpacing the rate of increase in expenditures.
I hope you're right about the paradigm shift. It is very likely that I am biased by cynicism. Wouldn't be the first time.