So what are the BWOT Anti-global warming nuts going to say now? - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #1 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-10-2007, 09:39 AM Thread Starter
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So what are the BWOT Anti-global warming nuts going to say now?


NASA study suggests extreme summer warming in the future


A new study by NASA scientists suggests that greenhouse-gas warming may raise average summer temperatures in the eastern United States nearly 10 degrees Fahrenheit by the 2080s.

"There is the potential for extremely hot summertime temperatures in the future, especially during summers with less-than-average frequent rainfall," said lead author Barry Lynn of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University, New York.

The research found that eastern U.S. summer daily high temperatures that currently average in the low-to-mid-80s (degrees Fahrenheit) will most likely soar into the low-to-mid-90s during typical summers by the 2080s. In extreme seasons – when precipitation falls infrequently – July and August daily high temperatures could average between 100 and 110 degrees Fahrenheit in cities such as Chicago, Washington, and Atlanta.

To reach their conclusions, the researchers analyzed nearly 30 years of observational temperature and precipitation data and also used computer model simulations that considered soil, atmospheric, and oceanic conditions and projected changes in greenhouse gases. The simulations were produced using a widely-used weather prediction model coupled to a global model developed by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

The global model, one of the models used in the recently issued climate report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), was utilized in this study to identify future changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns due to the build up of greenhouse gases. This information was then fed into the weather prediction model to forecast summer-to-summer temperature variability in the eastern United States during the 2080s.

The weather model showed that extreme summertime surface temperatures developed when carbon dioxide emissions were assumed to continue to increase about two percent a year, the "business as usual" scenario. These findings are too recent to be included in the latest IPCC report.

The weather prediction model used in this research is advantageous because it assesses details about future climate at a smaller geographic scale than global models, providing reliable simulations not only on the amounts of summer precipitation, but also on its frequency and timing. This is an important capability for predicting summer temperatures because observed daily temperatures are usually higher on rainless days and when precipitation falls less frequently than normal.

Observational climate data also showed that sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean have a significant influence on summer air temperatures in the eastern U.S.

"Relatively cool waters in the eastern Pacific often result in stubborn summer high-pressure systems over the eastern states that block storms, reducing the frequency of precipitation below normal,” noted study co-author Richard Healy of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Mass. "Less frequent storms result in higher surface and atmospheric temperatures that then feedback on the atmospheric circulation to further reduce storm frequency and raise surface temperatures even more."

The global model simulated rainfall too frequently, so that its surface temperatures were not appropriately sensitive to interannual changes in Pacific sea surface temperatures. "Since the weather prediction model simulated the frequency and timing of summer precipitation more reliably than the global model, its daily high temperature predictions for the future are also believed to be more accurate,” added co-author Leonard Druyan, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University.

In comparison, the researchers say that a number of the global models used in previous studies of future climate change predict too frequent precipitation that often falls too early in the day. As a result, they tend to underestimate the amount of future warming by reflecting solar radiation back to space before it can warm the surface and by simulating excessive evaporation from the wet ground.

To the authors' knowledge, this is the first study that has documented the impact of precipitation simulation imperfections on model predictions of surface air temperature. "Using high-resolution weather prediction models, we were able to show how greenhouse gases enhance feedbacks between precipitation, radiation, and atmospheric circulations that will likely lead to extreme temperatures in our not so distant future," said Lynn.


###
The study is published in the April 2007 issue of the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate.
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post #2 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-10-2007, 09:41 AM
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Well my gas revenues should do well and you may want to look at buying stocks in fresh water and utiities.
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post #3 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-10-2007, 09:49 AM
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And what will the future summer warming do for all the fruit and nuts that were destroyed this year due to a record late, unseasonal freeze, unlike anything seen in 54 years?

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post #4 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-10-2007, 09:57 AM
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^that^

Can't even look beyond 6 mos to make their theory.
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post #5 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-10-2007, 10:46 AM
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And what will the future summer warming do for all the fruit and nuts that were destroyed this year due to a record late, unseasonal freeze, unlike anything seen in 54 years?
FTL, here is your answer: Same old stupid shit.

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post #6 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-10-2007, 12:00 PM
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My checkbook is open, where should we start sending our money so that this inevitable crisis can be averted?
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post #7 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-10-2007, 12:26 PM Thread Starter
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Like drinking, first you must admit you have a problem. Are you ready to do so, or will you continue to believe Glen Beck over NASA? Come on, what is it, shitheads or scientists?
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post #8 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-10-2007, 12:27 PM
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My checkbook is open, where should we start sending our money so that this inevitable crisis can be averted?
That is the good part of this one. If everyone pays attention the costs are slipstreamed into normal operating costs, like flex fuel or Bluetec Diesel or thermal pane windows or recycling or improved catalytic converters or 10% improved fuel economy or reduction of SUVs [now 50% of US sales] or more efficient power plants as they are being built in developing countries.

No single change will fix the problem but bunches of little changes will. Think of the Butterfly Effect. That is what got us here, that is what will get us away from the most serious effects of the problems.

Of course the naysayers will most likely use the same critical thinking skills and believe that this NASA reports means that everything will be A-OK up until December 31, 2079 and then temperatures will magically leap to those new levels.

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post #9 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-10-2007, 12:29 PM
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The weatherman can't tell you with any certainty just what the temperature will be NEXT Thursday, and you're wrapped up because they say it will be warmer in a few years?
Run for cover chicken little....................

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post #10 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-10-2007, 12:33 PM
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Originally Posted by mcbear
That is the good part of this one. If everyone pays attention the costs are slipstreamed into normal operating costs, like flex fuel or Bluetec Diesel or thermal pane windows or recycling or improved catalytic converters or 10% improved fuel economy or reduction of SUVs [now 50% of US sales] or more efficient power plants as they are being built in developing countries.

No single change will fix the problem but bunches of little changes will. Think of the Butterfly Effect. That is what got us here, that is what will get us away from the most serious effects of the problems.

Of course the naysayers will most likely use the same critical thinking skills and believe that this NASA reports means that everything will be A-OK up until December 31, 2079 and then temperatures will magically leap to those new levels.
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