Didn't they predict worse hurricanes last year, too? - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #1 of 19 (permalink) Old 04-03-2007, 03:38 PM Thread Starter
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Didn't they predict worse hurricanes last year, too?

I see too much irony in these kinds of predictions...


'Very active' hurricane season predicted


DENVER, Colorado (AP) -- The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should be "very active," with nine hurricanes and a good chance that at least one major hurricane will hit the U.S. coast, a top researcher said Tuesday.

Forecaster William Gray said he expects a total of 17 named storms this year, five of them major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

The probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coast this year: 74 percent, compared with the average of 52 percent over the past century, he said.

Last year, Gray's forecast and government forecasts were higher than what the Atlantic hurricane season produced.

There were 10 named Atlantic storms in 2006 and five hurricanes, two of them major, in what was considered a "near normal" season.

None of those hurricanes hit the U.S. Atlantic coast -- only the 11th time that has occurred since 1945. The National Hurricane Center in Miami originally reported nine storms, but upgraded one storm after a postseason review.

Gray's research team at Colorado State University said an unexpected late El Niño contributed to the calmer season last year. El Niño -- a warming in the Pacific Ocean -- has far-reaching effects that include changing wind patterns in the eastern Atlantic, which can disrupt the formation of hurricanes there.

A weak to moderate El Niño occurred in December and January but dissipated rapidly, said Phil Klotzbach, a member of Gray's team.

"Conditions this year are likely to be more conducive to hurricanes," Klotzbach said Tuesday. In the absence of El Niño, "winds aren't tearing the storm systems apart."

The team's forecasts are based on global oceanic and atmospheric conditions.

Klotzbach advised coastal residents along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico to have hurricane plans and preparedness kits in place, but he added, "You can't let the possibility of a hurricane coming ruin your summer."

The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, averages 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.

The devastating 2005 season set a record with 28 named storms, 15 of them hurricanes. Four of those hurricanes hit the U.S. coast, the worst among them Katrina, which devastated New Orleans and leveled parts of the Gulf Coast region.

Gray has spent more than 40 years in tropical weather research. He heads the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State.

Federal government forecasters plan to release their prediction in late May.

Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy; its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery. (Winston Churchill)
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post #2 of 19 (permalink) Old 04-03-2007, 03:52 PM
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Yep.
And the terr alert level was yellow at the ferry terminal today.

"Yellow". I think that's funny......
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post #3 of 19 (permalink) Old 04-03-2007, 03:53 PM
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Yes they did, and not one hit the US last year. I doubt they will be any more accurate this year...

Don't believe everything you think
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post #4 of 19 (permalink) Old 04-03-2007, 03:59 PM
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Neil Young had a hit:

Once I thought I saw you in a crowded hazy bar,
Dancing on the light from star to star.
Far across the moonbeam I know thats who you are,
I saw your brown eyes turning once to fire.

You are like a hurricane
Theres calm in your eye.
And Im gettin blown away
To somewhere safer where the feeling stays.
I want to love you but Im getting blown away.

I am just a dreamer, but you are just a dream,
You could have been anyone to me.
Before that moment you touched my lips
That perfect feeling when time just slips
Away between us on our foggy trip.

You are like a hurricane
Theres calm in your eye.
And Im gettin blown away
To somewhere safer where the feeling stays.
I want to love you but Im getting blown away.

You are just a dreamer, and I am just a dream.
You could have been anyone to me.
Before that moment you touched my lips
That perfect feeling when time just slips
Away between us on our foggy trip.

You are like a hurricane
Theres calm in your eye.
And I'm gettin blown away
To somewhere safer where the feeling stays.
I want to love you but I'm getting blown away.
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post #5 of 19 (permalink) Old 04-03-2007, 04:01 PM
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Hurricane Gussy: classic

One day a man walks into a whore house. He goes to the pimp and says, “I want something different.”

The pimp says “Well, we have one girl that loves to take it up the ass.”

“No, that’s too common. I want something different.”

“Well, have you ever tried a Hurricane Gussy?”

“I’ll be damned, that is different. I’ll try that.”

The man goes up to the room and takes off his clothes. A minute later a huge Amazon type women comes in. She starts jumping up and down, blowing as hard as she can. The man says, “What the hell are you doing?”

“I’m Hurricane Gussy and that is the wind coming from the Hurricane.”

“OK, I’ll buy that.”

Then she starts beating him over the head with her breasts.

“What the hell are you doing?”

“Those are the coconuts nuts falling off the tree hittin’ you on the head.”

The man says alright. Then she stands over top of him and starts pissing all over him. “What the hell are you doing?!!”

“Those are the warm rains coming from the hurricane.”

The man gets up and starts to put on his clothes. Gussy says, “Where are you going?”

“I’m leaving!! Who can fuck in this weather?!”
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post #6 of 19 (permalink) Old 04-03-2007, 04:24 PM
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Just marking this post for later, after the hurricanes hit.

OBK #35

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post #7 of 19 (permalink) Old 04-03-2007, 04:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by old300D
Just marking this post for later, after the hurricanes hit.
Why do you kookbergers always need to believe the worst in people, places and things??? You must be miserable most of the time...

Don't believe everything you think
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post #8 of 19 (permalink) Old 04-03-2007, 06:21 PM Thread Starter
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^^^^^


Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy; its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery. (Winston Churchill)
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post #9 of 19 (permalink) Old 04-03-2007, 06:22 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barberhauler
Yep.
And the terr alert level was yellow at the ferry terminal today.

"Yellow". I think that's funny......
That's the permanent alert level in France.

Er, no, I'm mistaken.

That's just the "level color" in France.

Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy; its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery. (Winston Churchill)
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post #10 of 19 (permalink) Old 04-03-2007, 08:13 PM
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I did a bit of counting and found that for the past 15 years they [NHC] have hit an 85% accuracy level 13 of the past 15 years.

But you ScienceSkeptics just keep on beating that drum about last year. It's part our Liberal Cabal of Conspiracy to keep the NeoCons[NewConfused] really confused about this science thing.

McBear,
Kentucky

Being smart is knowing the difference, in a sticky situation between a well delivered anecdote and a well delivered antidote - bear.
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