Looks like we may invade Iran next..... - Page 7 - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #61 of 383 (permalink) Old 03-29-2007, 02:02 PM
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Originally Posted by dorfman24
I don't understand why you seem to be casting Iran as the one interested in peace and Bush as inept at dealing with them. Iran wanted negotiations a year ago when they perceived that they had the upper hand. Now, with some progress in Iraq, Bush upping the ante with the surge and several intelligence victories for the U.S. and Israel (Israel assissinated a key Iranian nuclear scientist and a key Iranian general defected to the U.S.), Iran is no longer looking to negotiate. They took the British hostages in an attempt to shift the momentum back to their side.

My broader point is that Bush should not negotiate with the Iranians from a position of weakness. The reason he has delayed is to get us in a superior position before engaging them. This is diplomacy 101.
Interpersonal Skills for Leadership Positions 101 teaches that if you can only convince the people you are working with to do what you want by threat of force, or use of military power, you find an uncooperative partner the minute you are perceived as unable to carry out the threat.

A position of strength in a negotiation comes from being completely aware of what you are negotiating for, and having more paths to follow to get it than you could possibly need. No agreement with Iran based on our present military presence will be meaningful if we leave. And, if the goal is to leave, what the hell good is having a military presence and a threat of violence as your only bargaining chip.

You get bargaining chips by playing the diplomacy game long term. You learn what the other side wants and how to give that to them in exchange for what you want. You never enter a negotiation with one, flaccid threat of violence. Our performance in Iraq militarily once the "insurgency" began is hardly one that impresses the hoardes of available Al-Qaeda and other fighters at Iran's disposal. And Iran has the where-with-all to bring the fight to American interests around the world, including our soil, if needed. Something Al-Qaeda, without Iran's resources was not able to pull off after 9-11.

Diplomacy is what is called for, and unfortunately, Bush's neocon advisors all think being right from their perspective is all that is required and diplomacy is merely a fancy word for giving away shit the other guy doesn't deserve. Without any diplomatic skills to bring to the negotiating table, that may well happen.

Jim

Last edited by JimSmith; 03-29-2007 at 02:16 PM.
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post #62 of 383 (permalink) Old 03-29-2007, 02:04 PM
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Originally Posted by old300D
Who wouldn't be killing if it wasn't for the USA's incompetance in executing the occupation.
The blame for every death in the wake of the invasion cannot be logically placed at the feet of the U.S. Had Iran been helpful in stabilizing Iraq the nation would be a far more peaceful place today.
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post #63 of 383 (permalink) Old 03-29-2007, 02:05 PM
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On Iran and our past interference - this is a subject for historians, not the current Bush Administration, to deal with.

On the subject of the region and our actions - Iran could have chosen a reaction other than to kidnap our diplomats (in 1979) kill our soldiers (in Iraq), arm the insurgents in Iraq against the Sunnis, threaten to destroy Israel (many, many times), arm and support Helzbollah in its war against Israel and commit an act of war against our ally Britain by kidnapping 15 soldiers operating in Iraqi waters. I don't really worry about our "right" to act in resposne to Iranian actions.
They have a right to live as they wish, it is their country and their part of the world, not ours. The 1979 incident cannot be justified on any level, I agree. In regard to helping their own people in Iraq, what would you expect? Iran has as great a stake in events in Iraq as we do in Canada, even greater. And I'm sorry, but Israel is not the 51st state. Their fate is their own, and if they cannot defend themselves with the tools we have provided them with after all this time, well that's just too bad.

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post #64 of 383 (permalink) Old 03-29-2007, 02:07 PM
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Interpersonal Skills for Leadership Positions 101 teaches that you can only convince the people you are working with to do what you want by threat of force, or use of military power, you find an uncooperative partner the minute you are perceived as unable to carry out the threat.
You mean like when Iran threatens to obliterate our ally Israel or sends hundreds of sniper rifles capable of piercing American armor to insurgents operating in Iraq?
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post #65 of 383 (permalink) Old 03-29-2007, 02:07 PM
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The blame for every death in the wake of the invasion cannot be logically placed at the feet of the U.S. Had Iran been helpful in stabilizing Iraq the nation would be a far more peaceful place today.
Iran has offered to be more helpful -- the Bush administration has refused to engage them diplomatically on any level. The offer may not have been sincere, but our refusal to talk to them is beyond idiotic.

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post #66 of 383 (permalink) Old 03-29-2007, 02:08 PM
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They have a right to live as they wish, it is their country and their part of the world, not ours. The 1979 incident cannot be justified on any level, I agree. In regard to helping their own people in Iraq, what would you expect? Iran has as great a stake in events in Iraq as we do in Canada, even greater. And I'm sorry, but Israel is not the 51st state. Their fate is their own, and if they cannot defend themselves with the tools we have provided them with after all this time, well that's just too bad.
America is not Iran and Iraq is not Canada. I think you're over simplifying a bit. America's interests (like those of all industrialized nations) are global, not merely local.
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post #67 of 383 (permalink) Old 03-29-2007, 02:10 PM
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Iran has offered to be more helpful -- the Bush administration has refused to engage them diplomatically on any level. The offer may not have been sincere, but our refusal to talk to them is beyond idiotic.
Their offer was never sincere and not talking to an anti-semetic warmonger who threatens to destroy a sovereign nation and arms our ememies in Iraq is someone you talk with very, very carefully. I think you're being a little too quick to condemn Bush on the subject of negotiating with Iran. This isn't Russia we're talking about.
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post #68 of 383 (permalink) Old 03-29-2007, 02:11 PM
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America is not Iran and Iraq is not Canada. I think you're over simplifying a bit. America's interests (like those of all industrialized nations) are global, not merely local.
^^^Yes, as you may have surmised by now, I am a libertarian isolationist. I have little interest in world conquest or expending enormous resources expanding our global sphere of influence.

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post #69 of 383 (permalink) Old 03-29-2007, 02:14 PM
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No agreement with Iran based on our present military presence will be meaningful if we leave. And, if the goal is to leave, what the hell good is having a military presence and a threat of violence as your only bargaining chip.

You get bargaining chips by playing the diplomacy game long term. You learn what the other side wants and how to give that to them in exchange for what you want. You never enter a negotiation with one, flaccid threat of violence. Our performance in Iraq militarily once the "insurgency" began is hardly one that impresses the hoardes of available Al-Qaeda and other fighters at Iran's disposal. And Iran has the where-with-all to bring the fight to American interests around the world, including our soil, if needed. Something Al-Qaeda, without Iran's resources was not able to pull off after 9-11.

Diplomacy is what is called for, and unfortunately, Bush's neocon advisors all think being right from their perspective is all that is required and diplomacy is merely a fancy word for giving away shit the other guy doesn't deserve. Without any diplomatic skills to bring to the negotiating table, that may well happen.

Jim
It's awfully hard to negotiate with someone who refuses to acknowledge the right of your ally to exist and is actively killing your own soldiers.

Furthermore, you're right that an agreement with Iran based on a large military presence will not succeed if we leave. Which is why the goal is to bring the vast majority of U.S. soldiers home and leave some behind to keep the peace. We've been in korea for 50 years, Germany for 60 and Bosnia for 10 years. The key is securing a relative peace in Iraq and ending U.S. and Iraqi casualties.
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post #70 of 383 (permalink) Old 03-29-2007, 02:15 PM
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Originally Posted by dorfman24
Their offer was never sincere and not talking to an anti-semetic warmonger who threatens to destroy a sovereign nation and arms our ememies in Iraq is someone you talk with very, very carefully. I think you're being a little too quick to condemn Bush on the subject of negotiating with Iran. This isn't Russia we're talking about.
Between Iran and the U.S., which is actively engaged in warfare at this moment? And do you mean the way we destroyed Iraq? You are accusing of Iran of aspiring to deeds we have already committed, and right on their doorstep.

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