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post #21 of 100 (permalink) Old 03-27-2007, 08:25 AM
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Originally Posted by QBNCGAR
Well, the reason it needs to be explained is that scientists cannot currently describe in a clear & comprehensive manner, what the differences are between natural climate cycles and 'man made triggers' as it applies to the observed/perceived fluctuations in our climate. Furthermore, they've been unable to present anything but a computer model to back up the theories of a "global temperature" and it's rise. As I've said before, water freezes at 32 degrees Fahrenheit - virtually all of the lakes from northern Canada to Minnesota freeze over each winter, all of whom are well south of the polar ice cap.

There's too much hyperbole and alarmism pumped into the subject for most people to be anything but skeptical...it's too difficult to find a simple explanation based on scientific observation & testing, and not the hypothetical extension of those observations based on computer modeling - all that amounts to is guesswork, and thankfully, most people are too smart to get freaked out by the obvious implausibility of the alarmist siren song.
I agree completely that there is too much media hype and alarmism when you read about Global Warming in popular press or network news. Any source that oscillates between Global Warming, Anna Nicole Smith, Alberto Gonzales and NASCAR is going to end up being a poor reference point. Unfortunately that is where most people get their information – on both sides of the discussion. It is what throws Red Herrings on one side and Hysteria on the other. Neither really focus on the real science that is actually going on and has been published for the past quarter century.

If you read the science journals that tend to focus on the subject [and also publish both sides of the discussion] you see that they tend to be very bland, boring and void of all the hype. You also don’t see the posturing that you see with the politicians and media kiddies, just a laying out of theories and potential solutions.

I do disagree with you however in your last paragraph. It is not “too difficult to find an explanation based on scientific observation and testing.” SIMPLE may be the problem since it is not a simple issue. Any systems analysis on a system this large has to utilize hypothetical extensions of observations, it is the only logical way to start looking at the problem. Does it amount to guesswork? Not if it is experts doing the analysis. Your doctor does hypothetical extensions of observations every time he does a checkup. Is it guesswork?

You can’t pass off the observations and evaluations of thousands of accredited scientists as implausible just because they don’t have a dot by dot mapping of the problem and solution. You would have been a treat around Columbus since he had no “proof” of this round Earth thing.

Move away from the popular media and hype and read the scientific documents. Read the ones from 10 years ago before the hype even began. Go back 25 years and start utilizing some pattern recognition. You will see why those of us who have been on this train for 25+ years seem so surprised that people can still have doubts this far into the discussion.

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post #22 of 100 (permalink) Old 03-27-2007, 08:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by edfreeman
If one buys into the current majority theory, the only solution that will work is to stop making so damned many humans. More humans require more industry, more trees (which, as I recall, do this photosynthesis thing to make oxygen out of CO2) ripped down to make houses, and more "other" damage that we likely haven't begun to debate.
If any of the points on here cuts this issue to the quick, the 1st sentence above does the trick. It was predicted years ago as the:

Malthusian population theory (1798)

"Named after English economist the Reverend THOMAS ROBERT MALTHUS (1766-1834), who believed that population would increase at a geometric rate and the food supply at an arithmetic rate.

This disharmony would lead to widespread poverty and starvation which would only be checked by natural occurrences such as disease, high infant mortality, famine, war or moral restraint". <snip>

Although this theory was eventually dismissed as not taking into account mankind's ability to adapt with technology, I think the Malthusian theory applies to this thread regarding the pollution issues.

No, I don't have an answer to controlling the population, but that would certainly be a step in the right direction.

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post #23 of 100 (permalink) Old 03-27-2007, 08:56 AM
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Originally Posted by DaveN007
Several years of scientific measurements have determined that the suface of the planet is indeed warming. Furthermore, polar ice has been retreating. The planet is WARMING.

Oh yeah, I am taking about Mars.

Jupiter and Venus and Pluto are warming, too.

What do these other planets in the Solar system have in common with Earth?

I will give you a hint: It isn't SUVs.

Liberal's ability to ignore the ball of fire in the sky as a cause of "warmth" is pretty damned funny. Until you realize that there is money involved. And it is always your money going to and or through them.

Not so funny anymore.
Dave,
Funny you brought this up. I happen to be reading a novel Decipher, by Stel Pavlou. ISBN 0-312-99643-8. Very interesting book. Make you wonder if there is anything indeed we can do to revert what nature started.

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post #24 of 100 (permalink) Old 03-27-2007, 09:25 AM
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Cat on a Hot Tin Roof

I was talking to my wife about my surprise that some folks just don’t see some of the issues of Climate Change that I see as so obvious and she said that maybe it is because they don’t know from what direction you came into environmentalism. She said explain. I hope this is short. I am sure you do too.

I grew up in Coal country in the mountains of Eastern Kentucky. While a kid I saw the rivers turn black where the coal companies would dump their slurry ponds into the river, rather than make new ones or clean the old ones. Everything downstream died. As I got older I saw the incredible damage that strip mining did to the mountains that I hiked from the time I was old enough to hike. Erosion from flattopping and side cuts took the heart out of the beautiful mountains. The topsoil that had grown a strong timber industry was now washed down the Cumberland River.

When I started my Eagle Project my Eagle advisor was the head of the Kentucky Coal Operators Association. I wanted to do an environmental project. It was like Oil and Water. After three months he found that this 14 year old was very stubborn and signed on to the project. Nine months later the project was done and it continues today as part of Duke Power [formerly Eastover Mining]. The project was a slurry management and recycling program that paid small mines for their slurry water to keep them from dumping it.

I got an appointment to the Air Force Academy and went into Systems Management and Architecture with the full intent of staying in Environmental Sciences. The Air Force had a different idea. So I spent 15 years doing systems analysis and economics and all my environmental projects were on the side. All the time however I followed Acid Rain issues in Kentucky [posted at Wright Pat half the time] and participated in that fight. Since the fight was against coal, in my mind the solution had to be both environmentally sound AND fair to the coal industry. I knew that industry front to back.

The Acid Rain fight was one of the first big lessons in the Climate Change problem. We had cause and effect evidence of industry changing an entire ecosystem in less than 100 years. [if you want to see an accelerated version, just look at the conifers by the interstates]. Science was able to look in the cells of trees and see the effects of coal burning. They were able to look in fish in the lakes and see the same effects. Fish were smaller than previously, forests were yielding smaller, weaker trees.

All this time I have read, at one time 34 magazines monthly [can you say OC]. I went to conventions, seminars and class on the subject. I started conversions of diesels to bio back in the early 80’s, mainly VW but also MB and Peugeot. That continues today as we convert gas cars to diesel and diesel to bio and are starting to look at other gases.

I write all of this as a way of trying to explain my surprise at the skepticism that some on the board has. I understand diverse opinion and respect it. I guess my surprise comes because the “red herrings” that I see thrown up by the popular press were mostly discounted a decade ago. Some are rehash from years old information and some are just “worry wart”.

Nothing in this problem is simple. It never will be simple but it is real. When I am rude, I am really not intending to be, it is more surprise and I will try to quit that. You should see how I do that in a conference. It is not pretty there either. Hopefully this will help you understand that I don’t just come at this as a “Al come lately”. Sorry for the length.

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post #25 of 100 (permalink) Old 03-27-2007, 09:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcbear
Nothing in this problem is simple. It never will be simple but it is real. When I am rude, I am really not intending to be, it is more surprise and I will try to quit that. You should see how I do that in a conference. It is not pretty there either. Hopefully this will help you understand that I don’t just come at this as a “Al come lately”. Sorry for the length.
Hi McBear,

I don't perceive you as rude, just committed to a cause that a lot more of us ought to be. I plead guilty to have adopted the "let the scientists worry about it, they will find a solution" mentality.

Please keep up the good work,

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post #26 of 100 (permalink) Old 03-27-2007, 02:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Musikmann
Hi McBear,

I don't perceive you as rude, just committed to a cause that a lot more of us ought to be. I plead guilty to have adopted the "let the scientists worry about it, they will find a solution" mentality.

Please keep up the good work,

Musikmann
On the good side, after posting that this morning it was a beautiful day and I took the 182 up for a couple of hours and flew down to Harlan to see if the trees had started coming out yet. No is the answer.

Also found out I have a vacuum leak in the 182. GRUMBLE. It might be time to fix and sell. I only flew 78 hours last year. Spending too much time restoring the 500E.

On the environmental side, check this out. Grease Car / Mad House Mini

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post #27 of 100 (permalink) Old 03-27-2007, 04:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveN007
In other words, you have no fucking idea what you are talking about.

(I work with "scientists" every day and can smell ignorance a mile away.)

I am trying to engage you. But you have no answers. So you turn to condescension.

Hilarious.

So I win. Man is not the cause of climate change on Earth or Mars. The Sun is.
Is your premise that the Sun is providing more intense radiation than it was several decades ago and that is the cause of global warming on Earth, and Mars, and Pluto? If that is the case it should be relatively easy to measure the change in energy being released by the Sun, and if it is changing the temperatures on Pluto it is going to be pretty obvious in the Earth to Mars orbits. The surface temperature on Pluto is near minus 215 degrees C. Absolute zero is minus 273.something. How much has Pluto warmed in the last few centuries?

Also you conveniently revert to the black and white, humans are doing it or nature is doing it argument. No one realistically believes humans are doing it alone. But, we can control the human contributions, and we cannot control the unknown natural cycles that our influence is superimposed on. Yet, anyway.

So, the objective is to start. While many of you would like to believe scientists understand a lot more than they do, and that there should be some acceptance criteria for accuracy of the scientific predictions that you can hold people to, I would venture that scientists on the whole are much more meticulous and rigorous in their prognostications than say, lawyers are. Or businessmen are. Because lawyers and businessmen get to work in an environment where all the rules are essentially man made. When the rules are man made, your objective is to bend or break the rules to your advantage. Science has no such zone to operate in - either you are within the rules of Mother Nature and your "theory" works, or you aren't and your theory fails. In most cases the links between knowledge of the sicence and practical application of technology are almost vapor. Yet, by applying the scientific method, and by using sound engineering principles, things like the bearings in your engine actually work reliably enough that we find them "practical." If held to the standard of being understood well enough to satisfy your willingness to latch on to global warming before they were used, fluid film bearings would be in the laboratory today.

Get a grip on reality. We don't know jack shit about how the Universe works. We know what we need to know to survive. Somehow, when it becomes necessary to know something for human survival, the secret is revealed to humans to the point where the new knowledge can be exploited to improve the statistics for survival for one person or a clan, or a nation. Once the advantage has been realized, the search for knowledge is typically abandoned. Jim
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post #28 of 100 (permalink) Old 03-27-2007, 04:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveN007
My argument is that the Sun controls climate on Earth, not man.
Yes, yes. And, it is God who determines whether or not you die. And, everybody dies. So, don't worry about how you live your life or what you put into your body. It is out of our hands.
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post #29 of 100 (permalink) Old 03-27-2007, 04:41 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JimSmith
Is your premise that the Sun is providing more intense radiation than it was several decades ago and that is the cause of global warming on Earth, and Mars, and Pluto? If that is the case it should be relatively easy to measure the change in energy being released by the Sun, and if it is changing the temperatures on Pluto it is going to be pretty obvious in the Earth to Mars orbits. The surface temperature on Pluto is near minus 215 degrees C. Absolute zero is minus 273.something. How much has Pluto warmed in the last few centuries?

Also you conveniently revert to the black and white, humans are doing it or nature is doing it argument. No one realistically believes humans are doing it alone. But, we can control the human contributions, and we cannot control the unknown natural cycles that our influence is superimposed on. Yet, anyway.

So, the objective is to start. While many of you would like to believe scientists understand a lot more than they do, and that there should be some acceptance criteria for accuracy of the scientific predictions that you can hold people to, I would venture that scientists on the whole are much more meticulous and rigorous in their prognostications than say, lawyers are. Or businessmen are. Because lawyers and businessmen get to work in an environment where all the rules are essentially man made. When the rules are man made, your objective is to bend or break the rules to your advantage. Science has no such zone to operate in - either you are within the rules of Mother Nature and your "theory" works, or you aren't and your theory fails. In most cases the links between knowledge of the sicence and practical application of technology are almost vapor. Yet, by applying the scientific method, and by using sound engineering principles, things like the bearings in your engine actually work reliably enough that we find them "practical." If held to the standard of being understood well enough to satisfy your willingness to latch on to global warming before they were used, fluid film bearings would be in the laboratory today.

Get a grip on reality. We don't know jack shit about how the Universe works. We know what we need to know to survive. Somehow, when it becomes necessary to know something for human survival, the secret is revealed to humans to the point where the new knowledge can be exploited to improve the statistics for survival for one person or a clan, or a nation. Once the advantage has been realized, the search for knowledge is typically abandoned. Jim
Yes, the radiation from the Sun has changed and we have measured it.

The extreme temperatures you refer to are the result of the atmosphere(s) or lack thereof on the planets you mention.

I ABSOLUTELY believe that we know very little about the universe. I have brought up this very fact on this very forum to no effect.

http://www.benzworld.org/forums/off-...-didja-no.html

http://www.benzworld.org/forums/off-...-we-sleep.html

Si I take it that you agree that attributing the climate's change to man is silly?
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post #30 of 100 (permalink) Old 03-27-2007, 04:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Gregs300CD
Yes, yes. And, it is God who determines whether or not you die. And, everybody dies. So, don't worry about how you live your life or what you put into your body. It is out of our hands.
BRING ON THE RAPTURE, BROTHER, AMEN!

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