Bad News In Iraq - The Surge Is Working - Page 25 - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #241 of 655 (permalink) Old 03-08-2007, 07:59 PM
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post #242 of 655 (permalink) Old 03-08-2007, 08:12 PM
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If you are in a five year study, obviously you have to maintain constants, otherwise the study is hosed from the getgo. Now you could ask for funding for tangential studies to run parallel based on cumulative information from the original study. Extra funding is always good.

In Military Science, or War College, everything is much more dynamic. In football every called play is a response to the previous play or previous set of downs. Nearly everything is Tactical.

A BATTLEPLAN does have Tactical elements but it is suppose to have Operational and Strategic elements that are the foundation from which Tactical calls can be made. That was one of the biggest surprises of the current conflict, a complete lack of Strategic elements that planned for the “What ifs”. Because they were not there, no Tactical calls could be drawn from the plan.

Because it appears to many that the original BATTLEPLAN is still in process, albeit with many modifications, it makes the current Surge harder to execute that it should be. The Surge that occurred last September [where we actually had more boots on ground than on this one] was a complete failure BUT it was before Bush moved away from his “Stay the Course” directives.

Looking at the past 60 Days of the Surge, there have been 12 days that have been “better” than the 60 day period before it was announced 1/12 [it actually began 1/7]. There have been some good raids and some VERY good intel. The Brits raided a Iraqi Police station in Basra and captured a bunch of the Iraqi Police who were torturing and killing civilians. Malarki was somewhat pissed. Major bombings are about consistent according to Pentagon. Roadside bombs are down 20%, again according to the Pentagon. That is VERY good.

This post morphed. oops.
Morphed, but a useful explanation of the methodology. That's always a good thing, IMO.

I do not know enough of the methodology to meaningfully argue using the correct terminology when discussing military operations. To attempt it would at best, give a false impression that I understand.

It looks to me like the people who planned the military conquest of Iraq did a superb job. They annihilated all attempts at organized military opposition and toppled the regime leaving no command structure. Then they completely disbanded the military and police forces and outlawed the political party that created the system and killed or arrested almost all of the civil and military leadership.

The transition to occupying power was almost a complete failure. I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that many PhD dissertations will be written that dissect the transition and explain in excruciating detail each and every reason for it's failure and propose probably twice that many paths that would have led to easy, glorious and resounding success. I'll bet a yankee dime that there will be more than a few that will call the present situation a success. I think I am on very safe ground in assuming that future assessments will be quite different from anything anybody says today. Hindsight is a beautiful thing for people living in the future. Too bad we don't have access to it now.

I failed to note agreement with your correction to my comment concerning keeping Congress out of Petraeus' hair. keeping the Administration out of his hair is at least equally important. Giving the man the greatest possible latitude, as MacArthur had in Japan, should have been given after the military conquest was complete. I hope it is not too late now.

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post #243 of 655 (permalink) Old 03-08-2007, 11:00 PM
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Saturday, September 2nd 2006

On Aug. 31, James Crum of the Iraq Project and Contracting Office released a statement on progress being made in Iraq's reconstruction.

Throughout the past three years, "solid progress" has been made to rebuild Iraq's infrastructure, according to Crum.

"All of Iraq's industrial sectors - oil, water, electrical power, education, agriculture, buildings and facilities, and security - have benefited from the United States' investment in their economic revitalization and reconstruction."

Iraqi Oil

Substantial investments have been made in the entire oil infrastructure system to help provide long-term stability, such as improvements to oil wells, pipelines and oil-refinement facilities.

Iraqi Water and Sewage

Since April 2003, completed U.S. projects have increased potable water availability in Iraq to an estimated 4.2 million additional residents; an estimated 5.1 million additional people have access to sewage treatment.

Iraqi Electricity

U.S. projects have added or restored an estimated 2,700 Megawatts of electrical generation capacity to Iraq's electrical grid. Peak electricity generation in Iraq is currently around 4,900 megawatts compared to an average of 4,300 in 2002.

"Power is more equitably distributed today, and on average Iraqis outside of Baghdad receive more hours of power than before the war," Crum said.

"The residents around the country are receiving 12 to 14 hours of electricity, and those in and around Baghdad are receiving up to eight hours of electrical power during the summer's high demand period."

Iraqi Business and Employment

"One of the key elements that enables Iraq to stand on its own is a strong and growing workforce,"

Since 2003, there have been 30,000 new businesses created in Iraq - many of these are small businesses and micro-enterprises, according to Crum.

The agricultural sector shows the fastest job growth, "particularly date palms and wheat, which have become Iraq's largest export crops."

Completed Iraqi Projects

"The numbers of completed projects throughout Iraq - including large and complex oil, water, and electrical plants - has been truly staggering," Crum stated.

"More than 3,500 projects have been started; more than 2,800 of these have been completed and the remainder under construction."
post #244 of 655 (permalink) Old 03-08-2007, 11:14 PM
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Will it work? I don't know. I sure as heck hope so. I guarantee this, if we don't try then we will fail utterly. Bot
Try??????????????????????????????????????????????? ??????????????

It has been four and a half years of trying. How much longer do you need to see it will never work?

Failing utterly was written all over the wall from day one. Any further effort in Iraq is futile. Have we not learned from Nam. Or we are that arrogant thinking it will work this time?

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post #245 of 655 (permalink) Old 03-08-2007, 11:20 PM
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"Take off you tin foil...?" What you mean boy?? You tin foil sticking to you head???
Birdie. You will know if that hat is up your ass.

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post #246 of 655 (permalink) Old 03-09-2007, 04:27 AM
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Botnst describes the attack on Iraq, a nation with no air force, a non-existent industrial base and an Army the CIA had evaluated as "non-functional" as a "brilliant operation". The subsequent disbanding of Iraqi society, he counts among the great brilliance of our glorious leaders.

Numerous times I have pointed out to this great judge of brilliance that he should purchase a copy of the book "Fiasco', which describes in great detail the planning of this war, and the execution of it, and judges Tommie Franks and Donald Rumsfeld as two of the most accomplished morons in American history, a dick-sucking synchopant following an ego-drenched shithead with a Napoleonic Complex who fired anyone who dared disagree. What the "plan" of these two shitheads actually did is leave hundreds of thousands of armed guerrillas in their rear echelon, brilliantly allowing them access to mountains of supplies and ammunition. It stood by idle while the most lawless elements of that society looted the country to the bare walls, showing our enemies we could not control the country. During the invasion, our brilliant commanders used phosphorus artillery and bombs, cruise missiles and indiscriminate shelling on civilian population areas, giving our enemies a propaganda bonanza of photographs of burned children and film of pickup truck loads of dead kids, Our troops, brilliantly led of course, had no discipline, and committed numerous acts of torture, murder and rape, machine gunning crowds and otherwise brilliantly turning the entire population against us. The book "Fiasco" also reveals that a real Iraq warplan existed, one developed over ten years, calling for a joint operation by the Dept of Defense and the State Department, where one would subdue the country, provide a massive amount of occupation force to maintain civil order, while the other provided temporary government services while instituting democracy, a methodology used in post WWII to great success. Our brilliant commander Rumsfeld saw the flaw in the plans, and gloriously threw this plan in the dumpster, so he could brilliantly attack a puny weak nation and throw it into utter chaos, while he set the stage for thousands of US troops to be killed by the weapons we ourselves brilliantly failed to secure by people we had brilliantly put into starvation and unemployment, since most of the people in the country were employed in the sectors Mr. Botnst so brilliantly describes as being brillantly disbanded by our brilliant Republican leaders, for which they all brilliantly recieved a medal from our brilliant president.

This is why this country faces disaster in Iraq: it has been run by idiots who think like that. Here is the real truth: Rumsfeld rejected the plan formed by Generals Zinni and Shinseki because his boss, Bush, wanted a war plan that would not endanger his precious tax cuts - there was no innovative military thinking here or development of new tactics, the plan was simple: "war on the cheap", an easy task on a basketcase country like Iraq. He forced Zinni and Shinseki into retirement, and shopped around for a dick suck who would implement his "small-foot print" plan, a plan that would rely upon massive firepower to swat a gnat, even though that meant huge civilian casualities and sure, certain backlash from the population. The plan ignored common military concepts of successful occupation and short-changed the occupation force in armor and planning, leaving them to pay dearly for the attack force's overuse of firepower and criminally negligent act of leaving well-armed forces in the rear. Yeah brilliant. Like Pickett's Charge was brilliant up to the point they walked point blank into the Yankee guns.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address

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post #247 of 655 (permalink) Old 03-09-2007, 05:21 AM
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... Have we not learned from Nam. ...
We probably agree on this but take home different lessons.

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post #248 of 655 (permalink) Old 03-09-2007, 05:23 AM
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... "Fiasco'....
Did you color-in all of the pictures on your own?

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post #249 of 655 (permalink) Old 03-09-2007, 05:33 AM
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Our forces CAN cause an insurgency. They can be the trigger that provides the tipping point that moves an unsettled populace to an insurgent movement. Our forces can also be a trigger [as has been evidenced] that pits groups against each other. You can look at our actions in Iraq or our [with UN] actions in Yugoslavia and see that a foreign force can indeed cause a tipping point that develops a insurgency.

When you add to that insurgency an additional outside influence that is also fueled by hatred of our forces and you have a Petri dish for development of the kind of polymorphic enemy that our forces now face.

The mixture of Civil War, Religious War, War on Terror, War against the Infidel, and “Get the Hell out of our Country” has given our Commanders on the ground a Target Acquisition Board that has so many color codes and rules that it is no wonder that QUAGMIRE is an understatement.
Most of the violence is between Iraqis -- some militia murdering innocent members of an opposing sect.

If our forces cause insurgency then why is there not a general uprising against coalition forces? In fact, the insurgency is only meaningful in one or maybe two provinces. No, coalition forces do not cause insurgency. Coalition forces are not even a target the militias except when we confront them on what the perceive of as their turf.

The violence in most other places is due to militias. The soldiers I talk to tell me that most of the Iraqis are pretty damned tired of us being there but they are not inclined to violence toward us. That squares with the general stats that indicate very few native Iraqis are violently disposed toward the coalition, or toward each other. The small but violent and disparate militias are the major source of violence in Iraq. This is why crushing the major elements of the militias is such an important mission for the coalition and Iraqi armed forces.
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post #250 of 655 (permalink) Old 03-09-2007, 06:09 AM
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Did you color-in all of the pictures on your own?

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It is obvious the points that I mention that paint you as a fool are beyond your ability to respond to with any kind of real counter point.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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