Global Climate Change: It's not just for breakfast anymore - Page 3 - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #21 of 83 (permalink) Old 12-30-2006, 05:48 PM
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Hell, a decade or so ago the libs were screaming "global cooling!" Now they are screaming "global warming." The only part of their scare scenario that has remained constant is that it is us evil human beings that have caused the crisis. Good lord, save us from the global liberals!

OOOOOooooohhh!!!!! Those libs are sooooo scary!
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post #22 of 83 (permalink) Old 12-30-2006, 06:13 PM
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OOOOOooooohhh!!!!! Those libs are sooooo scary!
They don't scare me a bit...

Don't believe everything you think
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post #23 of 83 (permalink) Old 12-30-2006, 07:26 PM
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Originally Posted by FeelTheLove
I have spoken to two different petroleum geologists who both report that the Greenland ice sheet is literally slipping off the island into the sea. If I remember right, most of the fresh water on Planet Earth is locked into the Greenland icesheet. If it begins to do what this chunk right in it's neighborhood just did, the introduction of that much fresh water into the ocean will result in an ecological catastrophe. There is also tremendous evidence the rate of warming is accelarating. It is sad that right wing morons will do to us the same thing they did in Iraq: through ignorance, idealogical fanaticism and rosy thinking, they will lead us to disaster.
No what is sad is that you buy what people are selling you without applying critical thinking.

Take a look at how useless the Kyoto treaty is and the fact that it would never have passed congress.

Take a look at how much pollution a volcanic eruption puts out compared to what humans output.

Take a look at how much pollution cruise ships put out compared to cars.

The Earths climate is not static nor has it ever been.

Sure global warming is probably happening but mans contribution is statisically insignifcant.

Environmentailists go for the low hanging fruit and do not attempt to have changes made where it will truly have an impact.
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post #24 of 83 (permalink) Old 12-30-2006, 07:45 PM
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...
Sure global warming is probably happening but mans contribution is statisically insignifcant.
...
That's the point, isn't it? Depending on the many assumptions and analytic techniques used, significance can be demonstrated for and/or against damn-near any phenomenon of nature. That is why peer review plays such a critical role at this time. Somebody has to understand the implications of the assumptions and analyses and these data are so complex than it generally takes an expert to understand the problem and methods.

Most of the time scientists wish to do the right thing. But just like real people, they may also be pushed by their own beliefs and prejudices. Again, this is where the peer review process, over the long-term, plays a moderating and corrective role.

There is no doubt that Man's understanding of climatology and the underlying physico-chemical processes and the contemporary and fossil records are better understood every month. This advancement is accelerating -- the rate of increase of knowledge is itself increasing. This seems likely to continue for the foreseeable future. This means that we know more than we did ten years ago and that we will know far more than that over the course of the next ten years.

In the past 10 years climatologists and ecologists have increasingly come to greater accord concerning global warming. There are very, very few knowledgeable scientists to dispute that the climate is warming. It is not perfect unanimity (few things in science are unanimously accepted), but it is undeniably the paradigm de jour. It will take a hell of a lot of extremely compelling contrary evidence to shift scientific opinion to an alternative view.

The argument is now centering on the degree to which man is creating or enhancing the warming trend and the degree to which intervention may ameliorate that warming trend. There is less accord on that, but it is continues approaching consensus. I'm betting within 5 years that we will know to a great degree of reliability, the degree to which Man may influence the climate.

Wanna bet?

B
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post #25 of 83 (permalink) Old 12-30-2006, 07:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Botnst
That's the point, isn't it? Depending on the many assumptions and analytic techniques used, significance can be demonstrated for and/or against damn-near any phenomenon of nature. That is why peer review plays such a critical role at this time. Somebody has to understand the implications of the assumptions and analyses and these data are so complex than it generally takes an expert to understand the problem and methods.

Most of the time scientists wish to do the right thing. But just like real people, they may also be pushed by their own beliefs and prejudices. Again, this is where the peer review process, over the long-term, plays a moderating and corrective role.

There is no doubt that Man's understanding of climatology and the underlying physico-chemical processes and the contemporary and fossil records are better understood every month. This advancement is accelerating -- the rate of increase of knowledge is itself increasing. This seems likely to continue for the foreseeable future. This means that we know more than we did ten years ago and that we will know far more than that over the course of the next ten years.

In the past 10 years climatologists and ecologists have increasingly come to greater accord concerning global warming. There are very, very few knowledgeable scientists to dispute that the climate is warming. It is not perfect unanimity (few things in science are unanimously accepted), but it is undeniably the paradigm de jour. It will take a hell of a lot of extremely compelling contrary evidence to shift scientific opinion to an alternative view.

The argument is now centering on the degree to which man is creating or enhancing the warming trend and the degree to which intervention may ameliorate that warming trend. There is less accord on that, but it is continues approaching consensus. I'm betting within 5 years that we will know to a great degree of reliability, the degree to which Man may influence the climate.

Wanna bet?

B
$100 that they will never "prove" man's involvement--one way or the other! Meet you here on 1/1/12...

Don't believe everything you think

Last edited by Jayhawk; 12-30-2006 at 08:09 PM.
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post #26 of 83 (permalink) Old 12-30-2006, 08:02 PM
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$100 that they will never "prove" man's involvement--one way or the other! Meet you here on 1/1/11...
Nah, I'll not take a bet about proof, that's for suckers. Few things in science are causally proven. Most widely accepted paradigms of science are correlatively demonstrated. Correlation cannot prove anything.

Like I said previously, within 5 years I'll bet that the degree to which man does (or does not) influence global climate change will be demonstrated with sufficient reliability that the results will be overwhelmingly accepted.

B
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post #27 of 83 (permalink) Old 12-30-2006, 08:05 PM
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Nah, I'll not take a bet about proof, that's for suckers. Few things in science are causally proven. Most widely accepted paradigms of science are correlatively demonstrated. Correlation cannot prove anything.

Like I said previously, within 5 years I'll bet that the degree to which man does (or does not) influence global climate change will be demonstrated with sufficient reliability that the results will be overwhelmingly accepted.

B
Would you care to define "overwhelmingly accepted?"

Don't believe everything you think
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post #28 of 83 (permalink) Old 12-30-2006, 08:15 PM
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Most of the time scientists wish to do the right thing. But just like real people, they may also be pushed by their own beliefs and prejudices. Again, this is where the peer review process, over the long-term, plays a moderating and corrective role.

Wanna bet?

B
Yes, and some of them, and maybe most of them, are also influenced by a huge amount of money that they can get for this research which would settle them for life.

"We are just trying to save the Planet Earth with this grant, Mr. Congressman"

Man's contribution is there, but no one can evaluate whether it is 0.001% or 20%.

Global prospective and real science rather than speculations and meaningless statistical analysis which depend on the preferences of the statistical analyst should play the role.

Before that happens we are clueless.

Yes, Bot, I'll bet you a $100 that we both die before global warming catastrophe occurs.

Last edited by maine_coon; 12-30-2006 at 08:19 PM.
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post #29 of 83 (permalink) Old 12-30-2006, 08:44 PM
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Lets see, over a billion hot engines on planes, trains, ships, factories, lawnmowers, and cars. Maybe that makes things hotter? Duh!

And I say this having a large car collection.
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post #30 of 83 (permalink) Old 12-30-2006, 10:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Botnst
That's the point, isn't it? Depending on the many assumptions and analytic techniques used, significance can be demonstrated for and/or against damn-near any phenomenon of nature. That is why peer review plays such a critical role at this time. Somebody has to understand the implications of the assumptions and analyses and these data are so complex than it generally takes an expert to understand the problem and methods.

Most of the time scientists wish to do the right thing. But just like real people, they may also be pushed by their own beliefs and prejudices. Again, this is where the peer review process, over the long-term, plays a moderating and corrective role.

There is no doubt that Man's understanding of climatology and the underlying physico-chemical processes and the contemporary and fossil records are better understood every month. This advancement is accelerating -- the rate of increase of knowledge is itself increasing. This seems likely to continue for the foreseeable future. This means that we know more than we did ten years ago and that we will know far more than that over the course of the next ten years.

In the past 10 years climatologists and ecologists have increasingly come to greater accord concerning global warming. There are very, very few knowledgeable scientists to dispute that the climate is warming. It is not perfect unanimity (few things in science are unanimously accepted), but it is undeniably the paradigm de jour. It will take a hell of a lot of extremely compelling contrary evidence to shift scientific opinion to an alternative view.

The argument is now centering on the degree to which man is creating or enhancing the warming trend and the degree to which intervention may ameliorate that warming trend. There is less accord on that, but it is continues approaching consensus. I'm betting within 5 years that we will know to a great degree of reliability, the degree to which Man may influence the climate.

Wanna bet?

B
Yeah, this is real hard stuff. Here, do an experiment. Put some air in a beeker. Throw a thermometer in with it. Put a stopper in it. Record the temperture. Shine a sun lamp on it for five minutes. Measure the temperature. Now put some dry ice in the beaker and stopper it. Check the thermo when it cools to the same temperature as before, shine the sun lamp on it again for five minutes. Record the temperture. What happens, Bot?

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address

Last edited by FeelTheLove; 12-30-2006 at 10:43 PM.
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