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post #31 of 38 (permalink) Old 12-25-2006, 10:21 PM
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Originally Posted by elau
Never mis-judge the power of the people.
Agreed but never mis-judge those crazies in power in Iran and wanting to keep that power nor what they would do to keep it. Personally I believe a massacre of the people would follow.
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post #32 of 38 (permalink) Old 12-25-2006, 10:23 PM
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Originally Posted by elau
You sure about that? Look at how we blotched Iraq. Heck, the whole damn Iraqi misadventure is not even in history book yet, how quickly people forget. No wonder why this country in such shit shape.
Arrggg! elau! your avitar is driving me nuts!

People forget? or is it their attention is diverted else-where? we all know that the media is slanted towards where the most money comes from Hmmm?
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post #33 of 38 (permalink) Old 12-25-2006, 10:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Jakarta Expat
Agreed but never mis-judge those crazies in power in Iran and wanting to keep that power nor what they would do to keep it. Personally I believe a massacre of the people would follow.
Disagree. If one good thing comes out of Iraq, it reminds the Iranians what their way of life may be like if it ever sinks into warring factions. Which it ultimately will.

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post #34 of 38 (permalink) Old 12-25-2006, 10:30 PM
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Arrggg! elau! your avitar is driving me nuts!
Glad you are enjoying it.

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People forget? or is it their attention is diverted else-where? we all know that the media is slanted towards where the most money comes from Hmmm?
Either way, our lost.

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post #35 of 38 (permalink) Old 12-26-2006, 06:26 AM
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In this article we find both Iran's interest in acquiring Southern Iraq and my belief that Iran will collapse on its own, and another point on why removing Saddam was an incredibly stupid idea:


Report: Iran oil profits could dry up by 2015



WASHINGTON (AP) -- Iran is suffering a staggering decline in revenue from its oil exports, and if the trend continues income could disappear by 2015, a National Academy of Sciences analysis found.

Iran's economic woes could make the country unstable and vulnerable, with its oil industry crippled, Roger Stern, an economic geographer at Johns Hopkins University, wrote in the report published Monday.

Iran earns about $50 billion a year in oil exports.

The decline is estimated at 10 to 12 percent annually.

In less than five years exports could be halved, Stern predicted.

For two decades, the United States has deployed military forces in the region in a strategy to pre-empt emergence of a regional superpower.

Iraq was prevented from growing into a major power in the area in the 1991 Persian Gulf War.

But a hostile Iran remains a target of U.S. threats.

The U.S. military exercises have not stopped Iran's drive.

But the report hostility to foreign investment wishing to develop new oil resources could destabilize Iran, Stern said.

Stern's analysis, which appears in this week's edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, supports U.S. and European suspicions that Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons in violation of international understandings.

But, Stern says, there could be merit to Iran's assertion that it needs nuclear power for civilian purposes "as badly as it claims."

He said oil production is declining and both gas and oil are being sold domestically at highly subsidized rates.

At the same time, Iran is neglecting to reinvest in its oil production.

"With an explosive demand at home and poor management, the appeal of nuclear power, financed by Russia, could fill a real need for production of more electricity."

Iran produces about 3.7 million barrels a day, about 300,000 barrels below the quota set for Iran by the oil cartel, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

The shortfall represents a loss of about $5.5 billion a year, Stern said.

In 2004, Iran's oil profits were 65 percent of the government's revenues.

"If we look at that shortfall, and failure to rectify leaks in their refineries, that adds up to a loss of about $10 billion to $11 billion a year," he said. "That is a picture of an industry in collapse."

If the United States can "hold its breath" for a few years it may find Iran a much more conciliatory country, he said.

And that, Stern said, is good reason to belay any instinct to take on Iran militarily.

"What they are doing to themselves is much worse than anything we could do," he said.

"The one thing that would unite the country right now is to bomb them," Stern said. "Here is one problem that might solve itself."

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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post #36 of 38 (permalink) Old 12-26-2006, 08:29 AM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FeelTheLove
Let the Israelis handle it, its their threat.
Ok, boys here is my take:

First of all why would Iran bomb Israel with a nuclear bomb that would have collateral damages that would defeat the purpose of attacking Israel in the first place?
Israel on the other hand can and is capable of bombing some parts of Iran with minimum radioactive fall back.
The bottom line Israel has more to gain in a nuclear exchange especially if Israel strikes first and paralyses Iran. So in my estimation if there is going to be an Israeli Iranian war Israel will strike first and at large scale. Hell that would be the only way to "prevent" the Iranians from launching anything as a desperate move.
I tend to think Iran if it is going to fight Israel it will do so by proxy like it has always done. That’s why it has Hezbollah.
I don’t see Iranian nuclear program as a major threat. The enrichment levels that they are seeking are no way near weapon grade. By the way they are not the only ones enriching nuclear material in the region. Egypt for example got mad at Iran for calling itself a nuclear nation because that would have qualified Egypt as such too. Egypt wants to fly under the radar with their program and this talk by the Iranians is not helping.
The bottom line Iran is just rattling its wooden saber to get attention and maybe get some people to nudge and start negotiating. Unfortunately it’s not doing a better job than North Korea.
Personally I think that there is an element in Israel and over here that wants the USA to get involved by attacking Iran just like they wanted us to attack Iraq. It’s funny how they all seem to disappear from view when shit hits the fan.
Going back to Jakarta’s request about what to do with Iran well there are many scenarios. Those scenarios all depend on the level of independence we have in analyzing the situation. Basically what would be our relative reliance on what Israel is telling us to do through mouthpieces like Netanyahu, AEI, AIPAC and other neocons. One thing is certain, it’s not going to come from true consensus through the people by the people.
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post #37 of 38 (permalink) Old 12-26-2006, 08:37 AM
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One thing is certain, it’s not going to come from true consensus through the people by the people.
One thing for sure, no truer words have been spoken than those above.
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post #38 of 38 (permalink) Old 12-26-2006, 08:41 AM
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My take is that Iran's rhetoric has forced Israel to consider Iran a threat to it's existence, and these are not people to take threats of genocide lightly. I also think that your ascribing to the mullahs in Tehran some capacity for reason is a huge mistake - the entire danger in Iran is that it is a nation run by apocalyptic religious nuts, and therefore reason and logic may not apply to their decision making process. It is at the heart of my belief that the greatest disaster of George Bush as president will be our failure to have recognized Iran as the true enemy after 9-11. Whatever the religious divide, the Sunni nuts of Al Queda and the Shiite nuts in Tehran have more in common both politically in their goals and idealogically in their beliefs to be more than potential allies. I believe both of them decided that formenting religious unrest among their factions is in both their interests. We should have put this country on a world-war footing and attacked Iran instead of Iraq, for all the reasons we attacked Iraq: they are building weapons of mass destruction for their own stated purpose of genocide, they support world-wide terrorism and their hatred for the United States makes them a likely source of support for terrorism against us. On top of that, there was direct evidence of their complicity in 9-11. Instead, we invade Iraq, simply because at heart our president was too gutless for a real war.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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