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post #81 of 102 (permalink) Old 12-01-2006, 03:36 PM
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Originally Posted by QBNCGAR
Let's think critically, for a moment.

All of the retrospective measurements being taken from core samples, tree rings, etc. are serving to document trends in a handful of conditions. It amounts to watching a rack of billiard balls very closely, and trying to figure out why they sometimes scatter all over the table at rapid speeds. You can analyze the spin of each ball, their velocities, end placements, etc., but all you have determined is what happens after some condition or event affected them.

You've not learned ANYTHING about why they began scattering all over the place, because you've not measured that. You've no mechanisms for evaluating what conditions or events in the past several thousand years have led to "mini ice ages" or "mini warming trends". This is the first time in history that climatological information has been captured with this level of resolution. It's irresponsible to prescribe corrective actions for a situation in which cause cannot be proven. And so are we here today, witness only to the re-action, clueless as to the action (if any) that has led to the perception of "global climate change".

Using the billiard ball analogy, one might recommend that very strong glue be used to keep the balls from moving about. Or perhaps some sort of sticky substance should be applied to the table to slow their movement if we deem it too fast and radical for our liking. Another alternative would be to build a huge wall around all of the balls, making them impervious from/unavailable to any outside force we don't understand (beneficial or otherwise). Of course, we have no way of knowing whether or not the billiard balls movement is a good or bad thing, because we're desperately short on data (even though we have quite a lot of it).

The world is almost impossibly large to study with enough detail to make assertions and recommendations based on what is only (roughly) a decade or two's worth of purposeful observation. There may be a 'mountain' of data, but it's a very narrow mountain. The same levels of data do not exist for enough portions of the globe to make any determination about cause, nor is there enough of an understanding regarding the climate and it's cycles to determine whether or not this is a natural phenomenon.

For example, do desert regions experience temperature gains and losses in lock-step with the rest of the globe? If not, what does 'global warming' actually mean - are we instead actually talking about 'regional warming'? This would be more consistent with the prescription that regional activity impacts regional climate, but it would be inconsistent with the apocalyptic messages being sent by the moronic talking heads of the alarmist/environmentalist movements (i.e. Al Gore).

Heaven forbid one go through the process of critical thought and remain a skeptic. You guys want to invest in my facial cream distribution business? I have lots of good data about my products, and observational histories of people who've been successful selling it...
Do you apply the same standard of critical rationality when the subject is God and religion?
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post #82 of 102 (permalink) Old 12-01-2006, 03:49 PM
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Do you apply the same standard of critical rationality when the subject is God and religion?
I certainly do, I keep asking why those who believe that God will always take care of them have insurance.

Why does a Church have Fire Insurance? Calamity Insurance?

If a minister “called” by God, why do they get “called” before a police lineup so often for molestation?

If God is talking to all of these ministers, preachers, pastors, priests, etc, why do they not hear the THOU SHALL NOT KILL and tell their Leaders about that one.

And why are we still using THOU in the 21st Century. We should be using either the New Jersey Youse or the Southern Y’all. Of course the plural of Y’all is actually All Y’all so I guess it might sound like “All Y’all Don’t Kill Nobody". Maybe we need to use the Queens English afterall... y’all.

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post #83 of 102 (permalink) Old 12-01-2006, 03:54 PM
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post #84 of 102 (permalink) Old 12-01-2006, 04:05 PM
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Originally Posted by JimSmith
I suspected cow shit. But you may be correct.

Jim

LOL. But that is where this stuff gets simplistic. Ice cores show that the concentrations of methane and carbon dioxide is rising at a faster rate over the last one hundred years than it has in the last 100,000, and the increas is on a predictable vector. One has to be a fool to think it will have no effect on the planet. We can look at similiar geological periods with similiar vectors and see mass extinctions:

http://www.livescience.com/environme...eat_dying.html

The real danger lies in our poor understanding of the methane cycle:

http://www.newmediaexplorer.org/sepp...on_dioxide.htm

There is also evidence that the warming of permafrost, as has occured naturally in the last five thousand years off and on, initiates biological forces that result in plagues, and there is one theory that thinks this a natural check on the human race overpopulating the earth:

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archiv...e_bubonic.html
(also note how this article describes another method for measuring historic gas levels)
Our artificially releasing these forces could be disasterous.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

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post #85 of 102 (permalink) Old 12-02-2006, 07:50 AM
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Originally Posted by mcbear
What made you start your billiard ball analogy at the moment the cue ball was hit? That was a random assumption that you picked in the timeline.
Because we haven't been making the same measurements of the environment forever - it is just since the perception of a global warming trend that factors other than simple temperature were measured consistently and in a standard fashion. The rest is basically guesswork. All we "know" is that temperatures seem higher right now. All you "know" by watching billiard balls break is that they started moving. Because our attention is misplaced in both examples, we are unable to do anything but speculate as to why we saw what we saw.

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Originally Posted by mcbear
The idea behind long period core samples and weather models is that they DO measure that which happened prior to "events". They DO through repetition model expectations of what will happen when the conditions repeat. They also can predict what conditions should be found of a previous event based on models of events before and after the event being questioned. That is the heart of Scientific Method, Critical Thinking and Logic.
This makes the assumption that we have a clearer picture of our geological and ecological history than we do. In reality, we're only really good back to a few hundred years. The rest, again, is educated guesswork - far from being granular enough to tie an "event" to an "observation".
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post #86 of 102 (permalink) Old 12-02-2006, 07:51 AM
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Do you apply the same standard of critical rationality when the subject is God and religion?
Absolutely...especially.
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post #87 of 102 (permalink) Old 12-02-2006, 08:16 AM
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Originally Posted by QBNCGAR
Because we haven't been making the same measurements of the environment forever - it is just since the perception of a global warming trend that factors other than simple temperature were measured consistently and in a standard fashion. The rest is basically guesswork. All we "know" is that temperatures seem higher right now. All you "know" by watching billiard balls break is that they started moving. Because our attention is misplaced in both examples, we are unable to do anything but speculate as to why we saw what we saw.



This makes the assumption that we have a clearer picture of our geological and ecological history than we do. In reality, we're only really good back to a few hundred years. The rest, again, is educated guesswork - far from being granular enough to tie an "event" to an "observation".
Hogwash.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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post #88 of 102 (permalink) Old 12-02-2006, 08:37 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by QBNCGAR
Because we haven't been making the same measurements of the environment forever - it is just since the perception of a global warming trend that factors other than simple temperature were measured consistently and in a standard fashion. The rest is basically guesswork. All we "know" is that temperatures seem higher right now. All you "know" by watching billiard balls break is that they started moving. Because our attention is misplaced in both examples, we are unable to do anything but speculate as to why we saw what we saw.
I think you are confused. Even the billiard ball example can be used to deduce why the balls move and why they move the way they do. We have been using stars to navigate for centuries without having to know what stars are made from or why they exist. Their track across the sky is repeatable and predictable. The only things we cannot provide a meaningful postulated explanation for, in your example, is why the asshole built the pool table the balls are setting on, or why he hit the cue ball, or why he did it exactly how he did it. Just like we cannot extract from core samples why the earth exists. But we can look for, recognize and then postulate logical links between patterns observed in the core samplings. Then we can test those theories by scheduling more samples, in different locations and making predictions of what we will find based on the theories. Once we make some predictions and the results of core samples corroborate the predictions, the theories become tools to use to understand our environment.

The testing of theories can then become more elaborate, which often leads to exposing the limits of applicability of the theories. Which inspires new theories without the same limitations. Which are then tested, and so on, until the prediction tool becomes sufficiently robust that it can be used with a very reasonable expectation of success. At that point it may even be used to make money with by providing some service for profit, the ultimate validation in our world today.

If there was money to be made figuring out how much mass, the speed and direction of the cue ball in your billiard ball example, a means for predicting these attributes based on detailed observations of the set-up and the scattering of the balls would be developed.



Quote:
Originally Posted by QBNCGAR
This makes the assumption that we have a clearer picture of our geological and ecological history than we do. In reality, we're only really good back to a few hundred years. The rest, again, is educated guesswork - far from being granular enough to tie an "event" to an "observation".
E=MC2 was derived l with much less of a data base than the global warming theory. And it has been, and as is customary within the scientific community it continues to be, vetted around the world by better minds than the ones feeding you the slogans and out of context quotes you are using. The influence of humans on this condition is still a theory and the best explanation anyone has postulated to date to explain our observations, but so is E=MC2. But that does not stop us from making nuclear weapons and nuclear power plants. Jim
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post #89 of 102 (permalink) Old 12-02-2006, 09:31 AM
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What I find interesting here is the terrific willingness of almost everybody to blame cars and smoke stacks for everything that happened so far.
It seems to me that when Mt Penetubo blew it's stack we had an average world temp drop of something like 1 to 1 1/2 degrees. Mount St. Helen was a close second. The question was asked a while back where does all the exhaust pipe gasses go. I can't answer that, but I can ask: Where did all the gasses go from those two explosions? Don't come up with the nonsense that that was a natural event, it doesn't matter, the gasses are still there when the event occurs, and they are gone now.
We think we know a lot about what's going on with this planet, that's plain BS we have clues as to what's going on, and that's all. You have to remember that it wasn't that long ago the "scientists" thought the world was flat, later on, the world is moving towards an "Ice Age", now it's global warming.
GS mentioned the coral reef loss, I'm not picking on him , but there are more factors going on then we can handle, or may even know about. The change in direction of one mile in the flow direction of an ocean current can kill an entire reef in a year.
The facts are that we just don't have the facts, and here we are talking like we are all experts. The one fact that I can guarantee is correct, is that we haven't got anywhere NEAR all the data that we need to come to any kind of a reasonably accurate conclusion. All we're doing is guessing with the little info that we have.

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post #90 of 102 (permalink) Old 12-02-2006, 10:20 AM
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No one is suggesting natural events do not contribute to climate changes. The issue at hand is, with global climate being a relatively slow, but constantly changing event, the balance of natural events is somewhat unstable, thus the constant state of change. Adding to that a somewhat "unnatural" contribution to the mix, the steady growth of the human population and with that the steady injection into the ecosystem ever greater quantities of human activity by-products and you get a system level response that, at the moment, looks like it could be catastrophic for sustaining human life as we know it.

The basic logic is that most intermittent, but even cataclysmic events such as volcano eruptions, have effects that can be moderated by the ecosystem. Lots of regular eruptions though, would likely be even more catastrophic than human activity by-products. The big difference with human effects is they have steadily increased for the last few centuries, and there is no known mechanism to address this separately by the ecosystem. The climate control system has evolved with life on earth, and it is, fortunately, a very slow to respond system. That we are adding an intense short term stress that is constantly building is likely to be addressed by making us extinct. Unless we address it. Jim
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