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post #41 of 55 (permalink) Old 11-15-2006, 12:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Shane
Fuck the stock market. I have seen too many people boom and bust on that thing, with the bust always coming at the end. It is a game for those with insider knowledge to be honest.
I agree with you if you're referring to speculating.

But for long-term investment (IRA, 401k, etc) broad-base index funds are a pretty darned safe bet. I have all of my 401k tied-up in 4 different index funds. All four have out-performed government bonds and inflation. 2 of them have been kicking serious ass for a couple of years. I'm in an age bracket that allows larger investment (catch-up) and I am max'd. Like Bear & Kirk, I think we're overdue for a massive correction--bigger than 2000-2001. I'm betting (literally) that it wont come before 2010. at some point between now and then I'm going to lose my nerve and shift everything to gov bonds. I'l also be close to retirement and literally could not afford to risk my nest egg.

B
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post #42 of 55 (permalink) Old 11-15-2006, 01:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Botnst
I agree with you if you're referring to speculating.

But for long-term investment (IRA, 401k, etc) broad-base index funds are a pretty darned safe bet. I have all of my 401k tied-up in 4 different index funds. All four have out-performed government bonds and inflation. 2 of them have been kicking serious ass for a couple of years. I'm in an age bracket that allows larger investment (catch-up) and I am max'd. Like Bear & Kirk, I think we're overdue for a massive correction--bigger than 2000-2001. I'm betting (literally) that it wont come before 2010. at some point between now and then I'm going to lose my nerve and shift everything to gov bonds. I'l also be close to retirement and literally could not afford to risk my nest egg.

B
I am at that age where 50% is already at that T-note/Bond security. It does not pay much but is does grind out quarterly. The rest is in, as Bot says either 410K type investments or 25% [in my case] in individual stocks that I watch. I DID lose in 2000-2001 but not near what my peers did because I use a very safe "system" that does not allow me to make as much or lose as much.

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post #43 of 55 (permalink) Old 11-15-2006, 01:53 PM
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Don't you do investing for your clients?
post #44 of 55 (permalink) Old 11-15-2006, 02:02 PM
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I do.........

My Car WOO HOO...... Now SOLD
New car.... 2001 Jaguar XJR!!!!

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post #45 of 55 (permalink) Old 11-15-2006, 02:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shane
Fuck the stock market. I have seen too many people boom and bust on that thing, with the bust always coming at the end. It is a game for those with insider knowledge to be honest.
And while you're dry humping it, I'll be making a good retirement off of it. Can you say, CHUMP?

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post #46 of 55 (permalink) Old 11-15-2006, 02:19 PM
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So far my picks have been fairing pretty good this year with a +14%
return. 401K @14% investment


Personalized Rate of Return from 01/01/2006 through 11/14/2006

Investment Advisor Investment Option Personalize Rate of Return

AllianceBernstein LP LargeCap Value Sep Acct 17.91%

Principal Global Investors Principal LifeTime 2050 Separate Account 15.10%

T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. LargeCap Growth I Sep Acct 4.12%

UBS/Emerald/Essex SmallCap Growth II Sep Acct 9.25%

Principal Global Investors/DFA International Small Company Sep Acct 21.21%

Total
14.31%

I'm open to suggestion concerning 401K investments

Last edited by RFC; 11-15-2006 at 02:31 PM.
post #47 of 55 (permalink) Old 11-15-2006, 02:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RFC
So far my picks have been fairing pretty good this year with a +14%
return. 401K @14% investment


Personalized Rate of Return from 01/01/2006 through 11/14/2006

Investment Advisor Investment Option Personalize Rate of Return

AllianceBernstein LP LargeCap Value Sep Acct 17.91%

Principal Global Investors Principal LifeTime 2050 Separate Account 15.10%

T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. LargeCap Growth I Sep Acct 4.12%

UBS/Emerald/Essex SmallCap Growth II Sep Acct 9.25%

Principal Global Investors/DFA International Small Company Sep Acct 21.21%

Total
14.31%

I'm open to suggestion concerning 401K investments
After inflation that is about 11% which is not bad. That will double in 9 years [+/- 1]. If inflation can be kept in check and you can keep steady numbers in, that should provide good growth. At some point, start putting 10% in Treasuries on the incase things go upside down. There have been years where the other numbers are negative and Treasuries are constant.

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post #48 of 55 (permalink) Old 11-15-2006, 03:19 PM
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Originally Posted by mcbear
After inflation that is about 11% which is not bad. That will double in 9 years [+/- 1]. If inflation can be kept in check and you can keep steady numbers in, that should provide good growth. At some point, start putting 10% in Treasuries on the incase things go upside down. There have been years where the other numbers are negative and Treasuries are constant.
Sounds like good advice.

B
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post #49 of 55 (permalink) Old 11-15-2006, 04:33 PM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by mcbear
Actually, when you factor in inflation and other variables, receipts are not "all that up". You need to look at that chart a bit more closely. Note that we are just now getting receipts back to 2000 levels. And when you factor in the Debt, we are not taking in what we are spending which means...

...services suffer
...infrastructure is neglected
...debt is increased
...debt costs are increased [more expense]

You can't have a government that takes in less than it spends without ramifications. You can tout increased receipts all day long but if increased debt is more, you are still in the hole.
Come on bear, you can do better than that...
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Don't believe everything you think
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post #50 of 55 (permalink) Old 11-15-2006, 04:42 PM Thread Starter
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The May-July 850 point correction took a lot of the pressure off of October. I still have money in individual stocks but keep my normal "10% up" plan in play. It has not failed me yet. Only stock that does very well that I won't invest in is Walmart.

As for the October correction, I am glad it did not arrive. Walmart and a couple of others helped keep the Dow up. A bunch of stocks did take a big hit but the Dow30 stayed up.

I still believe that the Leading Economic Indicators do not verify a strong Dow and, like 2000, it has a very good chance to "correct" hard again. The May-July correction helped but if you look at the foundation of the run, it lacks some of the basics of a sustained run. It is only a 3 month run.
Come on bear! Get your grove on: The very broad S&P 500 is at six or seven year highs: S&P 500 Components Record 18th Straight Quarter of +10% Earnings Growth--Posted on Nov 13th, 2006 at http://usmarket.seekingalpha.com/article/20419

I am starting to think you are just posting partisan political BS again. Could it be???

Don't believe everything you think
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