ONE Month to Election - Piles in the Aisles - Page 13 - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #121 of 161 (permalink) Old 10-08-2006, 06:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Shane
Interesting. You recognize the obvious and then throw your hands up to shove off responsibility. Great practice.
Redundantly trite with a zesty touch of unoriginality.

B
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post #122 of 161 (permalink) Old 10-08-2006, 10:37 PM Thread Starter
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The thing about debt is that you have to have a willing debtor to collect or you have to have somebody available to enforce the terms.

I remember when Japan Inc was going to own America. Remember that? They were buying real estate in major cities, farms in the corn belt and ranches across the west. Their economy was booming ours was tanking and they bought all kind of stuff, even some public utility companies for major cities, IIRC.

If their economy outperforms us that's our own damned fault, not theirs.
Your thought is true only if both China and Japan are both investing for benevolent reasons. Japan was buying purely on investment and devestated a lot of American companies in the process. Some were pure investment companies so that is really just better investing on the Japanese part but other companies were greatly devalued after the Japanese pulled out and pensions were impacted. GE and US Steel are two that quickly come to mind. As for Japan Inc about to own the US economy, they did a pretty good job until they did to their economy what we did to ours in 2000 with the dot.com boom. If they had not let that run out of control, they would still be in the game.

Now China is another thing altogether. While Japan wants to be a player in the world economy, China wants to be THE player and take us down in the process. There are old Mao reasons and new Capitalist reasons but the goal that has been written about, broadcast and discussed for the past 25 years is a long term war against the US economy.

And whether their economy outperforms ours or not is not just our fault IF we owe them tons of money. They hold the negotiating tools for all deals with all suppliers for companies that they deal with.

McBear,
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post #123 of 161 (permalink) Old 10-09-2006, 06:46 AM
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Originally Posted by mcbear
Your thought is true only if both China and Japan are both investing for benevolent reasons. Japan was buying purely on investment and devestated a lot of American companies in the process. Some were pure investment companies so that is really just better investing on the Japanese part but other companies were greatly devalued after the Japanese pulled out and pensions were impacted. GE and US Steel are two that quickly come to mind. As for Japan Inc about to own the US economy, they did a pretty good job until they did to their economy what we did to ours in 2000 with the dot.com boom. If they had not let that run out of control, they would still be in the game.

Now China is another thing altogether. While Japan wants to be a player in the world economy, China wants to be THE player and take us down in the process. There are old Mao reasons and new Capitalist reasons but the goal that has been written about, broadcast and discussed for the past 25 years is a long term war against the US economy.

And whether their economy outperforms ours or not is not just our fault IF we owe them tons of money. They hold the negotiating tools for all deals with all suppliers for companies that they deal with.
I almost completely agree with your premises, it's the conclusions on which we differ. I do not believe that the Chinese have enough wealth at their disposal to purchase enough debt instruments in the USA to affect the United States more than it affects them. Let's say that China's economy is 1/2 the size of ours. Let's say they invest half of their wealth into American debt. That means they control 1/4 of our economy but half of theirs is tied to our success. What coercive measure could they take against the USA that would not adversely affect them, and to a greater degree?

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post #124 of 161 (permalink) Old 10-09-2006, 10:28 AM
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Chinaphobia. Given the nature of their system, they could successfully bring their population thru economic shock even if their people were driven to starvation. The US, on the other hand, would be politically destablized if the banking system collapsed. But in truth, there are few coercive measures they could undertake. If they tried massively dumping our debt on the world market, we'd be glad to buy it all back at pennies on the dollar.

The real US achille's heel is how oil is priced. If Saudi Arabia decided to price oil in Euro's, the US economy would collapse over night.

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post #125 of 161 (permalink) Old 10-09-2006, 10:32 AM
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Chinaphobia.
Not me pal, talk to McBear on that one.

China buying US debt is a good thing, IMO. Read what i wrote, above.

I think the worry about China entering the world markets is wildly misplaced. In fact, worldwide trade is the best possible moderator of China. Creation of a market economy cannot help be be a liberalizing force.

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post #126 of 161 (permalink) Old 10-09-2006, 11:02 AM
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Originally Posted by Botnst
Not me pal, talk to McBear on that one.

China buying US debt is a good thing, IMO. Read what i wrote, above.

I think the worry about China entering the world markets is wildly misplaced. In fact, worldwide trade is the best possible moderator of China. Creation of a market economy cannot help be be a liberalizing force.

B
Excellent point!!

Don't believe everything you think
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post #127 of 161 (permalink) Old 10-09-2006, 11:08 AM
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What about the sleeze scandal? That hurt the demos with Clinton I can't help but think the Repos will stay away in large numbers.
The problem the Democrats have with this is that there are too many rational adult voters in this country that understand the difference between the two.
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post #128 of 161 (permalink) Old 10-09-2006, 11:13 AM Thread Starter
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I almost completely agree with your premises, it's the conclusions on which we differ. I do not believe that the Chinese have enough wealth at their disposal to purchase enough debt instruments in the USA to affect the United States more than it affects them. Let's say that China's economy is 1/2 the size of ours. Let's say they invest half of their wealth into American debt. That means they control 1/4 of our economy but half of theirs is tied to our success. What coercive measure could they take against the USA that would not adversely affect them, and to a greater degree?

Bot
My primary concern [and one shared by many more than me] is that with China owning 13-15% of our National Debt and a growing amount of our Trade Debt that if they want to destabilize our economy without affecting their own, it can be done by:

calling the debt which will require issuance of more instruments at higher rates that fuels inflation

selling the debt which, depending upon who buys can destabilize further if it is an unfriendly nation

use the debt to manipulate the stock market which is the most likely course to weaken the economy, then either call or sell the debt.


The original plan that was mapped out was a 50 year plan and if I remember correctly it was “announced” back in the late 70’s. The last conference that I went to where it was brought up was a couple of years ago. It tends to be one of those back burner concepts because no one wants to think of a trading ‘partner’ as a potential economic enemy. Hopefully capitalism will remove the Maoists components of their 50 year plan but anyone who has studied Chinese war plans and strategies knows that 50 years is a ‘short’ plan for the Chinese.

I am not a Chinaphobe, I only brought up the analogy of following post 96’s comment about going after those who announce a threat to us [US] and China has, many times in the past, made that threat. I could have just as easily used North Korea but who would believe me if I said that North Korea made threats to the US.

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post #129 of 161 (permalink) Old 10-09-2006, 11:17 AM Thread Starter
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The problem the Democrats have with this is that there are too many rational adult voters in this country that understand the difference between the two.
Yes, but the rational voters are usually Democratic so what is your point?

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post #130 of 161 (permalink) Old 10-09-2006, 01:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Botnst
Not me pal, talk to McBear on that one.

China buying US debt is a good thing, IMO. Read what i wrote, above.

I think the worry about China entering the world markets is wildly misplaced. In fact, worldwide trade is the best possible moderator of China. Creation of a market economy cannot help be be a liberalizing force.

B
I was actually speaking to mcBear. We should have done the same thing with North Korea and Cuba. If we had, they'd be making our sneakers right now.
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