Bush poll ratings drop to a dismal 33%, GOP Rubber Stamp Congress drops even lower - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #1 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-05-2006, 10:30 AM Thread Starter
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Bush poll ratings drop to a dismal 33%, GOP Rubber Stamp Congress drops even lower


Associated Press
GOP Candidates Facing Big Trouble
By DONNA CASSATA


Republicans determined to win in November are up against a troublesome trend - growing opposition to President Bush.

An Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted this week found the president's approval rating has dropped to 33 percent, matching his low in May. His handling of nearly every issue, from the Iraq war to foreign policy, contributed to the president's decline around the nation, even in the Republican-friendly South.

More sobering for the GOP are the number of voters who backed Bush in 2004 who are ready to vote Democratic in the fall's congressional elections - 19 percent. These one-time Bush voters are more likely to be female, self-described moderates, low- to middle-income and from the Northeast and Midwest.

Two years after giving the Republican president another term, more than half of these voters - 57 percent - disapprove of the job Bush is doing.

"The signs now point to the most likely outcome of Democrats gaining control of the House," said Robert Erikson, a Columbia University political science professor.

Democrats need to gain 15 seats in the House to seize control after a dozen years of Republican rule, and the party is optimistic about its chances amid diminishing support for Bush and the GOP-led Congress.

Republicans argue that elections will be decided in the 435 districts and the 33 Senate races based on local issues with the power of incumbency looming large.

"This election will be less about a political climate that is challenging for both parties, and instead about the actual candidates and how their policies impact voters on the local level," said Tracey Schmitt, a Republican National Committee spokeswoman.

But fewer than 100 days before the Nov. 7 election, the AP-Ipsos poll suggested the midterms are clearly turning into a national referendum on Bush.

The number of voters who say their congressional vote this fall will be in part to express opposition to the president jumped from 20 percent last month to 29 percent, driven by double-digit increases among males, minorities, moderate and conservative Democrats and Northeasterners.

"I don't feel like the war was the answer," said Paula Lohler, 54, an independent from Worcester, Mass., who is inclined to vote her opposition to Bush. "It seems like it's going on and on and on and nothing's being done."

"I think it's going to be similar to what we saw in 1994 and the tremendous dissatisfaction with Democrats," said Dick Harpootlian, the former chairman of the South Carolina Democratic Party. "Republicans are going to feel the wrath, feel the pain of being associated with President Bush."

In the South, Bush's approval ratings dropped from 43 percent last month to 34 percent as the GOP advantage with Southern women disappeared.

House Republican candidates looking to oust incumbent Democrats seized on the silver lining of the AP-Ipsos poll. Many of the 1,001 adults and 871 registered voters surveyed Aug. 7-9 said they've had enough with the status quo. Only 26 percent of adults said the country was on the right track, and just 29 percent approved of the job Congress is doing.

"It's a good year to be running against an incumbent," said Republican David McSweeney, an investment banker looking to unseat first-term Democratic Rep. Melissa Bean in the Chicago suburbs.

"Approval ratings for Congress are below where the president is," said Jeff Lamberti, a Republican taking on five-term Iowa Rep. Leonard Boswell. "It's a real opportunity for a challenger."

A Democrat seeking an open seat in a competitive Colorado district - Ed Perlmutter - is certain his party will capitalize on the national mood.

"There's a point where people just get mad," said Perlmutter, a winner in Tuesday's primary.

On the generic question of whether voters would back the Democrat or Republican, 55 percent of registered voters chose the Democrat and 37 percent chose the Republican, a slight increase for Democrats from last month.

"I'm not too happy with Bush at the moment," said dental lab employee Chrissie Clement, 36, of Poynette, Wis. "I think he could do more for this country. We need to get somebody new in there and get a different party in charge."

Charles Taylor, 56, who works on newspaper presses and lives near Roanoke, Va., said, "I would like to see Republicans keep control of Congress. I vote Republican to support the president."

Republican consultant Kevin Spillane said August polls typically have been filled with bad news for Bush and the GOP, but they eventually turn it around in November. Still, he said, "The bottom line from the numbers is no Republican incumbent should be caught unprepared for November."

The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points for adults and 3.5 percentage points for registered voters.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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post #2 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-05-2006, 10:33 AM Thread Starter
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Voters are anti-incumbent and angry, new poll finds
POSTED: 9:10 p.m. EDT, September 4, 2006



WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Most Americans are angry about "something" when it comes to how the country is run, and they are more likely than in previous years to vote for a challenger this November, a new poll suggests.

A majority of Americans surveyed -- and a higher percentage than recorded during the same time last year -- said things in the United States are going "badly." Among this year's respondents, 29 percent said "pretty badly" and 25 percent -- up from 15 percent a month ago -- answered "very badly." By comparison, 37 percent described the way things are going as "fairly well," and 9 percent answered "very well."

Of these people, 76 percent said there was "something" to be angry about in the country today. By comparison, 59 percent felt that way when polled in February. (Watch Bill Schneider's take on angry voters -- 1:40)

Only 21 percent said they were "generally content" in the latest poll.

Nine percent said they considered the economy to be "very good," a number unchanged from a June CNN poll. But the number who considered conditions "somewhat good" dropped from 42 percent to 35 percent over the same period.

The number of respondents who consider the economy "somewhat poor" rose from 31 percent to 34 percent, and the number who called the economy "very poor" jumped from 16 percent to 22 percent.

A majority -- 55 percent -- said they are more likely to back a challenger in races on this year's ballot. Such anti-incumbent sentiment is higher than the 48 percent recorded as "pro-challenger" in a similar survey in 1994, when the GOP took control of both houses of Congress.

Nonetheless, 48 percent said that, if most of the present members of Congress were replaced with new members, there would be no difference. By contrast, 42 percent said such a scenario would change Congress for the better, and 7 percent said it would change Congress for the worse.

The results, based on a half-sample of 1,004 adult Americans polled by Opinion Research Corporation for CNN Wednesday through Saturday have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

More than 60 percent of those surveyed said government policies need either major changes or a complete overhaul, while 30 percent said minor changes were needed. Only 7 percent said no change is necessary.

The economy topped the list of respondents' concerns, with 28 percent calling it the most important issue when deciding how to cast their ballots. Coming second was Iraq at 25 percent, followed by terrorism (18 percent), moral issues (15 percent) and immigration (14 percent). (Watch Bush dispute idea that Iraq is in civil war - 4:09)

Democrats lead Republicans by a 10-point margin, 53 to 43 percent, among likely voters asked which party's congressional candidate they would support in November, and Democrats held a 56-40 lead on the same question among registered voters.

The survey has a sampling error of 3 percentage points among the full group and 4 percentage points among likely voters.

Nearly half of the respondents -- 49 percent -- said they considered the GOP the party of strong leadership. But 56 percent said they considered the Democrats the party of change, with 49 percent considering them the more forward-looking party.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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post #3 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-05-2006, 12:09 PM
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Well, the unemployment rate is lower now than it was a year ago, by a full percentage point. So if idiotic polls are to be taken as absolute fact, we have some pretty mixed signals.

Of course, anyone who takes a poll as a statement of fact is as big an idiot (or bigger) than those conducting them. After all, the employment rate is a significant economic indicator - yet only 60,000 people are questioned...in person...during the day...at their homes...to see whether or not the breadwinners are currently employed. Somehow that number is made to represent millions of people sharing the same fate, despite the obvious flaw in the logic (if you get an answer by knocking on the door at someone's house during the day, there's a pretty damn good chance they're not employed).

So, from here on out, I bequeath any jackass who starts or contributes to threads based on the results of polls, this lovely Dunce Award photograph.

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post #4 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-05-2006, 12:16 PM
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Didn’t the poll results also have Bush behind, before he WON his second election?
post #5 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-05-2006, 12:25 PM
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Originally Posted by guage
Didn’t the poll results also have Bush behind, before he WON his second election?
Yes guage and his on his way for a third win.
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post #6 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-05-2006, 12:56 PM
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You might want to check a few other polls...

http://www.pollingreport.com/BushJob.htm

Don't believe everything you think
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post #7 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-05-2006, 01:06 PM
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One shows him at dismal 31 percent, I'm surprised he didn't post the finding of those numbers.
post #8 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-05-2006, 01:09 PM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by QBNCGAR
Well, the unemployment rate is lower now than it was a year ago, by a full percentage point. So if idiotic polls are to be taken as absolute fact, we have some pretty mixed signals.

Of course, anyone who takes a poll as a statement of fact is as big an idiot (or bigger) than those conducting them. After all, the employment rate is a significant economic indicator - yet only 60,000 people are questioned...in person...during the day...at their homes...to see whether or not the breadwinners are currently employed. Somehow that number is made to represent millions of people sharing the same fate, despite the obvious flaw in the logic (if you get an answer by knocking on the door at someone's house during the day, there's a pretty damn good chance they're not employed).

So, from here on out, I bequeath any jackass who starts or contributes to threads based on the results of polls, this lovely Dunce Award photograph.

Unemployment stats are totally misused. Bush claims he "added six million new jobs" without mentioning that they all went to Mexicans. This economy has simply been not adding good paying middle class jobs.

The stat driving the current unhappiness is easy: real wages of average folks has risen 1% since Bush took office, while wages of the upper crust have risen an astounding 135%. The 1%ers are getting killed with gas, local taxes and now declining home valuations, while their jobs are being shipped to China, while the rich enjoy exhorbitant tax cuts financed with borrowed money. It's the world shittiest economy for average smucks.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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post #9 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-05-2006, 01:13 PM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by guage
Didn’t the poll results also have Bush behind, before he WON his second election?
The last election was a 3 point difference, within the margin of error. This one is not. Good luck, mofo.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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post #10 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-05-2006, 01:26 PM
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Originally Posted by RFC
One shows him at dismal 31 percent, I'm surprised he didn't post the finding of those numbers.
I'm sure he posted the worst possible numbers he could find.

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