Bush poll ratings drop to a dismal 33%, GOP Rubber Stamp Congress drops even lower - Page 2 - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #11 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-05-2006, 07:09 PM
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Originally Posted by QBNCGAR
Well, the unemployment rate is lower now than it was a year ago, by a full percentage point. So if idiotic polls are to be taken as absolute fact, we have some pretty mixed signals.

Of course, anyone who takes a poll as a statement of fact is as big an idiot (or bigger) than those conducting them. After all, the employment rate is a significant economic indicator - yet only 60,000 people are questioned...in person...during the day...at their homes...to see whether or not the breadwinners are currently employed. Somehow that number is made to represent millions of people sharing the same fate, despite the obvious flaw in the logic (if you get an answer by knocking on the door at someone's house during the day, there's a pretty damn good chance they're not employed).

So, from here on out, I bequeath any jackass who starts or contributes to threads based on the results of polls, this lovely Dunce Award photograph.

How many of those unemployed just fell off the roles. That is the really scary number. People who collect unemployment for 26 weeks are counted as unemployed by a state. After that, if they are still unemployed, they do not count on anyones roles. It is as if they don't exist on employment calculations. That is why 26 weeks after a big layoff at say GM, the numbers will bump UP. It does not mean people found work, it just means that those people rolled off the roles.


The only real way to calulate the number of employed and unemployed is to count the number of people paying into the SS system and the number that roll off by death, retirement etc. The total number of employed people. That is the number that is down by some 10 million in the past 6 years. It is also the number that ALL pols avoid because it not only points out the current REAL unemployment rate but it also shows the REAL lack of funds coming into the Social Security Fund Pool. That total number takes into account people who work two or more jobs so they don't get double counted.

Once you look at those numbers, unemployment gets really frightening because cornered, desparate people make bad decisions to survive.

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post #12 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-05-2006, 07:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Jayhawk
I'm sure he posted the worst possible numbers he could find.
The only poll numbers that count will be in 60 days.

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post #13 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-05-2006, 08:54 PM
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Originally Posted by mcbear
How many of those unemployed just fell off the roles. That is the really scary number. People who collect unemployment for 26 weeks are counted as unemployed by a state. After that, if they are still unemployed, they do not count on anyones roles. It is as if they don't exist on employment calculations. That is why 26 weeks after a big layoff at say GM, the numbers will bump UP. It does not mean people found work, it just means that those people rolled off the roles.


The only real way to calulate the number of employed and unemployed is to count the number of people paying into the SS system and the number that roll off by death, retirement etc. The total number of employed people. That is the number that is down by some 10 million in the past 6 years. It is also the number that ALL pols avoid because it not only points out the current REAL unemployment rate but it also shows the REAL lack of funds coming into the Social Security Fund Pool. That total number takes into account people who work two or more jobs so they don't get double counted.

Once you look at those numbers, unemployment gets really frightening because cornered, desparate people make bad decisions to survive.
All of these employment figures are pretty fluid, aren't they? I mean, how many illegal aliens report their jobs and income? How many of them are illegally drawing unemployment? Etc. I'll bet employment figures are never more accurate than a single order of magnitude. Just guessing and damned if I know how it could be proven, one way or another.

The thing about the "poor" in America is that the proportion doesn't seem to decline. I wonder how much of that is due to immigrants (legal and otherwise) entering at the bottom. If they're queuing in at the bottom and the proportion of poor is steady, then they must be moving either off the top (into middleclass) or into the unregistered unemployed. Again, not something I know about. Just guessing.
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post #14 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-05-2006, 08:57 PM Thread Starter
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So you don't think you would find a statistical coorelation between these polls that show that average smucks feel they are getting nowhere and actual economic data ? People are unhappy because their wages are stagnant and the job market is not creating a plentiful supply of up-the-social-ladder jobs, and all the trade jobs are going to the fucking Mexicans. There are plenty of studies that say exactly that. Bush always talks about "new jobs created". Why do we never hear who they are going to, and what they are? Never a peep from him.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address

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post #15 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-05-2006, 09:45 PM
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So you don't think you would find a statistical coorelation between these polls that show that average smucks feel they are getting nowhere and actual economic data ? People are unhappy because their wages are stagnant and the job market is not creating a plentiful supply of up-the-social-ladder jobs, and all the trade jobs are going to the fucking Mexicans. There are plenty of studies that say exactly that. Bush always talks about "new jobs created". Why do we never hear who they are going to, and what they are? Never a peep from him.
Can you discuss anything without using vile or abusive language?

B
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post #16 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-05-2006, 10:43 PM Thread Starter
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Not when I'm discussing fucking Mexicans.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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post #17 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-05-2006, 10:49 PM
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Besides, that was like a Mister Rogers' Neighborhood post for you.....

"If spending money you don't have is the height of stupidity, borrowing money to give it away is the height of insanity." -- anon
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post #18 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-05-2006, 10:57 PM Thread Starter
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He really hates the "fucking Mexicans" thing.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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post #19 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-06-2006, 12:05 AM
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Not when I'm discussing fucking Mexicans.
Don't you mean fucking Mexico?
post #20 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-06-2006, 12:23 AM
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There's a huge underground economy in America (and I don't mean prostitution and drug dealing). Many small business people (I mean electricians, carpenters etc) deal only in cash transactions, many home health workers are hired illegally and paid in cash without the typical IRS with-holding and wind up paying little or no tax. The IRS estimates billions of dollars each year in under-reported income.

There is plenty work for those with skills in the building trades. I have to make an appointment months ahead of time in order to get renovation work done on my house e.g.

As I look around me I see a tremendous amount of wealth in this country for those who are willing to work hard. Those with no education and no skills are simply going to be SOL. Those who can't hack it in higher education and who have no trade are increasingly being left behind.
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