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post #71 of 169 (permalink) Old 09-07-2006, 05:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Botnst
That is going to be a helluva difficult prospect to exploit. aside from the tremendous technological challenge, it is located in one of the most hurricane-prone portions of the GOM (looking at historical tracks back to 1850). everytime a hurricane enters the GOM they're going to have to shut-down that rig-ship (it's floating in 4 miles-deep water) and move it out of harm's way. Loss of that vessel would halt production from that prospect until a new one could be built: 2-3 years.
Lot of excitement in your neck of the woods over this, I imagine. This has to be a real boon for the whole rebuilding thing in the area as well......

"If spending money you don't have is the height of stupidity, borrowing money to give it away is the height of insanity." -- anon
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post #72 of 169 (permalink) Old 09-07-2006, 05:53 PM
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I recall the estimate of 15 billion barrels of oil. At the consumption rate of 6 billion per year for the U.S. that might give us about 3 years (including other reserves) of total energy independence.

So we need to try and exploit it but keep looking at alternative sources.....
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post #73 of 169 (permalink) Old 09-07-2006, 06:05 PM
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Originally Posted by GermanStar
The question was (rephrasing, since everyone but Bot got confused by my original wording) 'how long before that source is depleted?
3 billion to 15 billion barrels. Say we can pull 1,000,000 bbls a day (approx 6-10% of daily US requirements).



So we would exhaust the low estimate in eight years. High end is five times that much, so it could last 40 years. So if we pull 2,000,000, it goes in 4 to 20, etc.

This area will probably require underwater platforms. A ship floats over the top and drops a pipe, which divers secure, so you have one platform underwater, safe from hurricanes, that contains all the stuff that you don't want to come loose in a hurricane and cause a big leak. The ship, in effect a second platform, contains the distribution and metering equipment to pump it onto tankers. When a hurricane is predicted, the ship disconnects and takes off. They've been working on this for a while for the deep,deep water plays. I've seen mockup models. It should work.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address

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post #74 of 169 (permalink) Old 09-07-2006, 06:11 PM
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Originally Posted by GermanStar
Lot of excitement in your neck of the woods over this, I imagine. This has to be a real boon for the whole rebuilding thing in the area as well......
Shit man, the excitement is over in Houston. We don't let those cajams near this kind of stuff.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/fn/4165043.html

...

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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post #75 of 169 (permalink) Old 09-07-2006, 06:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Botnst
That is going to be a helluva difficult prospect to exploit. aside from the tremendous technological challenge, it is located in one of the most hurricane-prone portions of the GOM (looking at historical tracks back to 1850). everytime a hurricane enters the GOM they're going to have to shut-down that rig-ship (it's floating in 4 miles-deep water) and move it out of harm's way. Loss of that vessel would halt production from that prospect until a new one could be built: 2-3 years.

If oil prices drop below $40/bbl that prospect may not pay for itself so they'll likely shut it down until prices return to an economically sustainable rate.

the size of the play is not well known yet. The estimates vary by nearly 100%. Until more development is conducted on the field the estimate will not be especially firm.

Also, the current high prices make recovery from fields that were exhausted at $30/bbl suddenly interesting at $65-$70/bbl. Land seismic exploration is going-on all across the Gulf Coastal states from west TX to OK, AR and across LA, MS, AL and northern FL. Offshore seismic exploration is now looking at depths that were unimagined only 5-10 years ago. Good seismic records are being acquired down below 40,000 ft--beyond what drilling technology can reach...now. But the money is there for innovation and exploitation.

This will change the reserves estimate for every field.

However, it is also a good idea to remember that petroleum is a finite resource. It is exhaustible and at the rate we're consuming it, there's a good chance our grandchildren will curse us for our lack of self-control.
I think you are over estimating recoverable reserves in exhausted fields. They've been pumping steam and acid down those holes for years now, as the continental US is really, really played out. The real action we are seeing is in exploration for new plays in Wyoming, Utah and Washington state, with renewed interest in Pennsylvania. Cold areas are very interesting. Greenland is the great unknown at this point. Antartica too. No wonder the oil companies are melting them off.

This well is 5.3 miles down, 7000 ft of water and 28k of dirt. Just imagine the rock densities under that kind of water pressure for the last few hundred million years. That is some serious technological challenge.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address

Last edited by FeelTheLove; 09-07-2006 at 06:22 PM.
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post #76 of 169 (permalink) Old 09-07-2006, 06:19 PM Thread Starter
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Our unemployment rate is so low that every local newspaper has permanent adverts for everything from boat captains to mates to deckahands and engineers. Also derrick hands (roustabouts and roughnecks). And all of the white collar jobs like seismologists, geophycists, petroleum geologists, petroleum engineers. Also every kind of welder imaginable--there are lots of metal parts of things in the oil industry. CDL drivers. Contract labor pools, surveyors, civil engineers, machinists.

Most restaurants have "Help Wanted" signs. Shops need sales clerks. Building contractors need skilled and unskilled labor--not enough Mexicans.

Every facet of employment is open and begging.

If this boomlet continues to expand and grow it could equal the late 1970's oil boom when my community had more overnight millionaires than Rools Royce could imagine in their wildest wetdream. Folks I talk to swear they're not going to go nuts like they did the last time. We'll see.

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post #77 of 169 (permalink) Old 09-07-2006, 06:27 PM
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Well, its going to get worse. We are having trouble keeping help in our pipeline machine shops, refinery and our offshore production operations in LA, because the skilled workers are being offered exhorbitant wages to move to Houston. We've got plenty of Mexicans, but the market for machinists, welders, pipe fitters, plumbers, anyone who can help put pipes together, is going out of sight. Chevron is going to want to get their hands on all of them now. The smaller subs are raiding each other's shops - entire staff will quit and go to work for a competitor overnight. lots of lawsuits.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address

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post #78 of 169 (permalink) Old 09-07-2006, 06:27 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GermanStar
The question was (rephrasing, since everyone but Bot got confused by my original wording) 'how long before that source is depleted?

It depends on oil prices. If the prices slump then that particular source may not be worth pumping so they'll cap it until prices make it economically feasible to exploit. If prices stay high or go higher they'll put more wells into that than granny's pincushion and deplete it faster. But regardless of how much oil is there, you can only draw so much through a limited number of straws. Plus, if you over produce a field you can prematurely exhaust it. So petroleum engineers and geologists nurse the fields along for decades rather than pump at the maximum rate.

This is why those arguments of a field having XXX years of production at the current rate of consumption are trivial. A large field may only have 6 months of oil in it but that six months is drawn-out over 20 years. So even the smallest field is a productive addition to the total reserves.

Unfortunately (IMO) this type of discovery gives false hope and misguided security to people who should really know better. Folks say, "See, plenty of oil." The truth is that it is a finite resource. At the current price it will make alternatives (especially efficiency and conservation) more attractive. But what we really need is a paradigm shift. A new way of looking at the use of energy in modern society.

Damned if I know what it is. Nobdoy ever knows what a paradigm shift looks like until it has already happened.

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post #79 of 169 (permalink) Old 09-07-2006, 06:43 PM
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If you want to bet the market, these are interesting small caps that could gecet a whole lot bigger:

http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=FLS

http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=XNR

http://www.b2i.us/Profiles/Investor/...ofile&BzID=551

I like Team Industrial - young, agressive company that has been growing fast. Xanser is an interesting play because their stock is way down, but its way down because they just bought a large division of another company that spun of it's valve machine shop business - at 5 bucks a share it might be good for a gamble stake. Flowserve is really pricey at 60:1 PE, but it has one of the best reputations in Houston for good solid management, and Chevron would be attracted to that given this type of project, in fact I would pick them as a possible takeover target of Chevron.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address

Last edited by FeelTheLove; 09-07-2006 at 06:47 PM.
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post #80 of 169 (permalink) Old 09-07-2006, 06:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Botnst
It depends on oil prices. If the prices slump then that particular source may not be worth pumping so they'll cap it until prices make it economically feasible to exploit. If prices stay high or go higher they'll put more wells into that than granny's pincushion and deplete it faster. But regardless of how much oil is there, you can only draw so much through a limited number of straws. Plus, if you over produce a field you can prematurely exhaust it. So petroleum engineers and geologists nurse the fields along for decades rather than pump at the maximum rate.

This is why those arguments of a field having XXX years of production at the current rate of consumption are trivial. A large field may only have 6 months of oil in it but that six months is drawn-out over 20 years. So even the smallest field is a productive addition to the total reserves.

Unfortunately (IMO) this type of discovery gives false hope and misguided security to people who should really know better. Folks say, "See, plenty of oil." The truth is that it is a finite resource. At the current price it will make alternatives (especially efficiency and conservation) more attractive. But what we really need is a paradigm shift. A new way of looking at the use of energy in modern society.

Damned if I know what it is. Nobdoy ever knows what a paradigm shift looks like until it has already happened.

B
Price per barrel is not the only consideration. The location of this field means that it can be piped right into the grid, so transportation costs will be lower. This is easy stuff to get to market. They'll suck that straw hard.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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