Israel Invades Lebanon - Page 2 - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #11 of 54 (permalink) Old 08-02-2006, 05:53 PM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by Botnst
Unless you have God on your side, success is attained by neither justice nor injustice.

It is attained by winning.

B
Back to Kuhn. You have no definition of "winning" that is operable in today's world. The Israelis will obviously 'win" under your definition, in fact maybe they will even have a "Mission Accomplished" parade. Then they will stand around and wait to get blown up, and see an even more radical government in Lebanon when they leave. How do you"win"?
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post #12 of 54 (permalink) Old 08-02-2006, 05:58 PM Thread Starter
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You guys sure are hopeful for failure.

In contrast, I hope for success.

If your folks win in November your side can force retreat. That's the way the ball bounces.

B
No, we will just show you a new way to win. If one understands this new paradigm of war, one can defeat it. The only thing your side has to offer is endless war to patient enemy, an old paradigm of warfare, of torture and murder and endless death. Iraq has now gone on longer than WWII. Why?
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post #13 of 54 (permalink) Old 08-02-2006, 06:07 PM
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Originally Posted by FeelTheLove
Back to Kuhn. You have no definition of "winning" that is operable in today's world. The Israelis will obviously 'win" under your definition, in fact maybe they will even have a "Mission Accomplished" parade. Then they will stand around and wait to get blown up, and see an even more radical government in Lebanon when they leave. How do you"win"?
The classic definition of military victory is by compelling the adversary to do your will. That works for me. It doesn't require force of arms. It does require bending one's opponent to one's one objectives. If you think wars against insurgencies are a new phenomenon you have missed some interesting military history.

How long did the British take to win against the Malaysian insurgency?

Julius Caesar against the Gauls?

Peru against Sendera Luminosa?

The USA against the American Indians?

And I'm sure your special favorite: Vietnam over the USA?

Etc.

Why were the various sides victorious?

B

Last edited by Botnst; 08-02-2006 at 06:13 PM.
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post #14 of 54 (permalink) Old 08-02-2006, 06:24 PM Thread Starter
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The classic definition of military victory is by compelling the adversary to do your will. That works for me. It doesn't require force of arms. It does require bending one's opponent to one's one objectives. If you think wars against insurgencies are a new phenomenon you have missed some interesting military history.

How long did the British take to win against the Malaysian insurgency?

Julius Caesar against the Gauls?

Peru against Sendera Luminosa?

The USA against the American Indians?

And I'm sure your special favorite: Vietnam over the USA?

Etc.

Why were the various sides victorious?

B
The ones who lost were either exterminated through genocide or did not engage in suicide warfare. That's the part you miss. Look at your logic: it contains vast generalizations about "opponents" in a world where your opponent disappears into the local population. This is a new warfare - where once you have subjugated your opponent, the war has begun, it is not where it has ended. Bush and his Mission Accomplished sign were the first indication of the revolution in warfare that has just begun. Romans did not set up "Reconstruction" plans, they put the whole town to the sword, or if the town surrendered, they sold them into slavery. Those who remained either got the message, or left. And the Indians, need we say more? Genocide is the only way to defeat a suicidal adversary. Can we wage war like that? The British were masters at the fractional war that is being refined here, and they and the Viet Cong were the beginning of the new paradigm. What better place for a new paradigm to emerge than Iraq, the factional politics of their former masters the British, the melding of civilian and guerilla into a potent force of the Viet Cong coming in from Socialist Saddam and his Russian-trained Army, and the ingredients that finally created the new paradigm, the Internet and the suicide bomber. It's a whole new way of warfare. And now they will apply it to Lebanon. Let the car bombs and IEDs begin.

Last edited by FeelTheLove; 08-02-2006 at 06:30 PM.
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post #15 of 54 (permalink) Old 08-02-2006, 06:28 PM
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The suicide stuff is great for TV but it is militarily insignificant. the degree to which weak-hearted people are swayed by TV gore is definitely an important issue.

I reject your contention that genocide is the only solution. Or perhaps, you confuse genocide with death in war. That's for you to determine, not me.

There was no genocide in Gaul, Malaysia, nor Peru. Perhaps so against the Indians but that was unnecessary as the way of the indians was already decided by population pressure.

B

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post #16 of 54 (permalink) Old 08-02-2006, 06:40 PM Thread Starter
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http://www.geocities.com/caesarkevin/caesar6.html

Malaysia is certainly an example of factionalism exploited by an outside power, and I can find no record that it was ever actually considered an official colony or part of the British Empire, it was more of a puppet Sultanate that supplied bases in return for protection against internal enemies, ala Saudi Arabia.

Peru was never a popular insugency, they were jungle bandits who lost the support of the populace they needed to hide in. In all these cases, I see nothing that would compare to Israeli or American approaches to warfare, or how you mean to support your argument that we will be successful. Can you find any oranges to go with that one orange mixed in with all your apples?
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post #17 of 54 (permalink) Old 08-02-2006, 07:40 PM
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...In all these cases, I see nothing that would compare to Israeli or American approaches to warfare, or how you mean to support your argument that we will be successful. Can you find any oranges to go with that one orange mixed in with all your apples?
Proof that we see what we choose to see and learn from that the lessons we choose to learn.

You suggested it was impossible to beat an insurgency.

I offer examples of failed insurgencies

You set a new goal of finding an insurgency that matches the current one.
-----------------
Here are facts: No war has ever been like any other war.
1. No insurgency has ever been like any other insurgency.
2. There is no one method that will always work on either side.
3. Failure to adapt to changes in the confrontation will lead to further failure.
4. The one that abandons the effort loses.
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post #18 of 54 (permalink) Old 08-02-2006, 10:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Botnst
Proof that we see what we choose to see and learn from that the lessons we choose to learn.

You suggested it was impossible to beat an insurgency.

I offer examples of failed insurgencies

You set a new goal of finding an insurgency that matches the current one.
-----------------
Here are facts: No war has ever been like any other war.
1. No insurgency has ever been like any other insurgency.
2. There is no one method that will always work on either side.
3. Failure to adapt to changes in the confrontation will lead to further failure.
4. The one that abandons the effort loses.
Bot, are those 4 facts or 5 facts you listed with only 4 worthy of a numerical designator/

I think I agree with your facts, however you count them. My question is, how do you think we are dealing with number 3? Who is doing the innovating? Are we or are we not failing to adapt?

You seem to get in a huff about the perspective that the US is failing, especially on number 3, as it seems to suggest we cannot reverse the pattern, and the failure is going to inevitably lead to defeat. At this stage in Iraq, we have to first decide if not abandoning the effort is worth the costs of American lives, Iraqi lives, and that requires we make the objective known, debate it in Congress, and agree or not to stick it out. Then we can determine the skills needed to adapt to the changes, and make them available. But without making an honest assessment of what we are there to accomplish, what the present situation actually is, what is needed and a committment to provide what is needed to win, we are not going to win. We are lost.

At the moment, I think it would be very difficult to enunciate a purpose for being in Iraq that would be supported in Congress with an honest assessment of what the costs in terms of American, Iraqi and other lives will be, as well as what the bill to the taxpayers will be. Without that though, we need to get out. This is not some condemnation of the American military in general, it is an acknowledgement that we have sent them into harm's way without a complelling mission or the resources they need to get the job done. That, we should know by now, is a formula for failure. Jim
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post #19 of 54 (permalink) Old 08-03-2006, 12:46 AM
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That is absolutely untrue. Yugoslavia held together until a strong dictator attempted to grab the reins. That attempt was the beginning of the end.....
Without Tito's dictatorship, the artificial Jugoslavia would have fallen apart long before. Ethic strife there goes back many Centuries. Hitlers SS had Albanian, Bosnian and Croat divisions, with the Croats killing Serbs for target practice.
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post #20 of 54 (permalink) Old 08-03-2006, 01:06 AM
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Indeed.

There are other examples of this phenomenon. As long as a strong central government existed in the former soviet union the individual republics towed the line. As soon as some cracks appeared in the foundation of the USSR we got rebel states like Chechnya and endless bloodshed.

The Russians talk a good game of "restraint" on the world stage but when it comes to their own muslim problem they deal with it largely by carpet bombing.
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