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post #81 of 118 (permalink) Old 06-26-2006, 06:07 PM
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At what confidence level would you suggest that politicians and the general public begin paying attention? Say, 50%? In other words, if the predictions have a 50-50 chance of being right, is that sufficient?

Here's one way to evaluate the outcomes.

If the warming thing is wrong and we spend trillions of dollars reducing CO2, CFC and other emissions what would have we gained or lost?

Conversely, if the warming prediction is correct and we spend trillions of dollars to reduce the emmissions, what have we gained or lost?

What at some other thresholds, say 25% and 75% confidences? I'll bet that the curves would have different convexities for each of us but in all cases it will be leptokurtic and skewed to the upper CI. What do you think?

I think that by doing this kind of napkin-and-beer estimation you (we, I) can get a grasp on when we believe the it would be appropriate ot be alarmed and what the various outcomes would be.

This would be an interesting resampling problem to submit to a Stella analysis. Anybody have Stella? I used it back when it was Mac only but haven't used it in years. Golly, over a decade?

(B)old Fart
This is why we let the climate experts assess the data and make the predictions as they have been doing for the past 30+ years. They tend to understand the logic behind the science and the ramifications. We, on the other hand, at best choose the best experts we can find, read, learn and draw our conclusions [and by extension our votes] from that. At worst we hide or try to obfuscate the issues, minimizing the threat and hoping it will go away [sorta like the Permaglacier in Greenland]

They have assessed the data and made the predictions. They have explained the logic behind the science, now it is just time for us to act, not play more parlor games.

Some of the public has been paying attention for over 25 years. Some of us have been doing stuff for 25 years. Solar and windmill sound small but I am only on the grid 20% of the local average. Many others are too. Cars converting to alternative fuels has been gaining ground [soy, hemp, recycled cooking oil]. It does not sound like much but 25 years of small changes have finally started paying off. In Kentucky, clean coal is a term that would never have been used if it had not been for environmental protests in the 1970's. Lead would still be in fuel if protests of its dangers had not started in the 60's.

You have to be impressed when the group of scientists hired by the Republican controlled Congress to 'slow down' the environmental claims of other climate reports comes back and says [broadly paraphrasing] "yep, they were right." and the Congress had the balls to release the report.

McBear,
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Being smart is knowing the difference, in a sticky situation between a well delivered anecdote and a well delivered antidote - bear.
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post #82 of 118 (permalink) Old 06-26-2006, 06:14 PM Thread Starter
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"yep, they were right." and the Congress had the balls to release the report


these are minutes. We are hours late.

-- wvb
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post #83 of 118 (permalink) Old 06-26-2006, 06:27 PM
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"yep, they were right." and the Congress had the balls to release the report


these are minutes. We are hours late.
We are very late for correcting the problems to the point of keeping things at a 'status quo' level. That would have needed to start in the 1960's. Unfortunately that is water over the dam so all we can do now is look at aggressive patching and accept that there are going to be consequences to our delays. That is a very sad reality. The US can take some of the blame but reality is the triggers are global. Brazil has to stop wholesale burning and clearing of the Amazon forests. China has to install pollution controls on their burgeoning industrial complexes. The US HAS to develop a better automobile energy plan that does not subsidize gluttony. The list goes on in every continent in about every country. Hard decisions must be made but for the most part, high costs are not necessary which is the amazing part for many decisions. That is the blown smoke of naysayers.

McBear,
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post #84 of 118 (permalink) Old 06-26-2006, 06:41 PM Thread Starter
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I agree with you that the 60's were the times to start cleaning.

Also the US is not (from far) the sole culprit. I admit this. And also the US opinion gave the lead on global problems, as soon as the 1970's. IN controversy but still !

Now mainly China will be a problem with coal and what they need to grow.

We need firm laws. Global solutions. And we need to act locally as far as possible.

-- wvb
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post #85 of 118 (permalink) Old 06-26-2006, 09:27 PM
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In China some of the greatest contribution to the carbon problem has been uncontrolled fires in the coal beds. I saw some satellite imagery several years ago that followed the heat plumes across China and far out into the northern Pacific.

On another aspect, about 10 years ago the US Navy (IIRC) got interested in ENSO and tried an interesting experiment in which they sent a freighter laden with iron ore into the mid latitudes of the Pacific where phytoplankton growth is iron-limited. They unloaded the iron ore across a great swath of the ocean, which dramatically increased the phytoplankton population. The phytoplankton photosynthesize, converting free CO2 to O2 and water and eventually, crystalline carbonates and silicates. These tiny critters get consumed and so forth up the food chain. Waste, mostly carbonaceous compounds settle to the ocean floor. This essentially increases the fishery productivity and concomitantly increases the sequestration rate of carbon.

There are many, many solutions. No single solution is going to do everything. Some are not obvious. The more that we undertake, the better off we'll be in the long term.

B
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post #86 of 118 (permalink) Old 06-26-2006, 10:10 PM
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Bot "Anybody have Stella?"

Thirsty work this thread,isn't it? First we've had the red wine,now Bot wants to break out the beers.Very kind,I'll have a pint.

No wait,doesn't fermentation produce copious quantities of CO2?? Ok so that's alcohol banned then.And the world's cattle produce millions of tonnes of methane (which is a far worse greenhouse gas than CO2) so that's steak off the menu.
Who wants to live in a world bereft of steak and ale anyway?
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post #87 of 118 (permalink) Old 06-27-2006, 12:01 AM
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Bot "Anybody have Stella?"

Thirsty work this thread,isn't it? First we've had the red wine,now Bot wants to break out the beers.Very kind,I'll have a pint.

No wait,doesn't fermentation produce copious quantities of CO2?? Ok so that's alcohol banned then.And the world's cattle produce millions of tonnes of methane (which is a far worse greenhouse gas than CO2) so that's steak off the menu.
Who wants to live in a world bereft of steak and ale anyway?
Save the cows [and tasty steak]. There are apparently those who harvest the methane for fuel. Although I would not want to be the guy who hooks up the hose. I can just see a field full of dairy cows with PVC tanks strapped on their sides with a tail sniffer [dare I say a cowlostomy bag].

McBear,
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post #88 of 118 (permalink) Old 06-27-2006, 02:50 AM
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McBear"I would not want to be the guy who hooks up the hose."

Hehe,me neither,but it sounds like a job made in heaven for Shrimpton when he decides to down his ladders and paintbrushes.After all,he's used to being around the backsides of sheep,so a step up to cows should be a breeze.And since he talks out of his own arse,he should feel totally comfortable around a bunch of flatulent cow's butts.
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post #89 of 118 (permalink) Old 06-27-2006, 03:13 AM
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Hehe,me neither,but it sounds like a job made in heaven for Shrimpton when he decides to down his ladders and paintbrushes.After all,he's used to being around the backsides of sheep,so a step up to cows should be a breeze.And since he talks out of his own arse,he should feel totally comfortable around a bunch of flatulent cow's butts.[/QUOTE]
Damn New Zealand is 12 hours ahead of the UK , well have to wait for the next round....

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post #90 of 118 (permalink) Old 06-27-2006, 07:23 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Botnst
At what confidence level would you suggest that politicians and the general public begin paying attention? Say, 50%? In other words, if the predictions have a 50-50 chance of being right, is that sufficient?

Here's one way to evaluate the outcomes.

If the warming thing is wrong and we spend trillions of dollars reducing CO2, CFC and other emissions what would have we gained or lost?

Conversely, if the warming prediction is correct and we spend trillions of dollars to reduce the emmissions, what have we gained or lost?

What at some other thresholds, say 25% and 75% confidences? I'll bet that the curves would have different convexities for each of us but in all cases it will be leptokurtic and skewed to the upper CI. What do you think?

I think that by doing this kind of napkin-and-beer estimation you (we, I) can get a grasp on when we believe the it would be appropriate ot be alarmed and what the various outcomes would be.

This would be an interesting resampling problem to submit to a Stella analysis. Anybody have Stella? I used it back when it was Mac only but haven't used it in years. Golly, over a decade?

(B)old Fart
Your evaluation of outcomes misses the most important one in the analysis. What if we do nothing and those who proclaim global warming is not occuring due to the acts of man are wrong? We all die. In this set of probabilities, that one point means that that particular outcome must be eliminated as a possibility by a factor of 100%, while the others can remain as lower factors of possibility with the consequence of error being only financial cost. Do you disagree? And why would you need Stella? If one of the consequences of the probabilities is global annihilation, couldn't you work this particular problem out on a napkin with a #2 pencil? Don't use it a sharp one, it tears the napkin.

Last edited by FeelTheLove; 06-27-2006 at 07:28 AM.
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