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post #81 of 91 (permalink) Old 06-22-2006, 05:01 AM
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Talk about conjecture! Jesus Christ. You somehow go from filled and degraded to destroyed and empty.
Read what that point actually says.

-Despite many efforts to locate and destroy Iraq's pre Gulf War chemical munitions, filled and unfilled pre-Gulf War chemical munitions are assessed to still exist.

That point DOES NOT say WMD's have been found, only the same assumption that they are assumed to still exist. My conjecture is based on the fact that ONLY THE FIRST POINT has a fact listed, the rest are just pure conjecture.

My qualified 'guess' that they were empties is based on two thoughts. First, the level of degradation would have been enough that it did not cause major WH press conferences upon their initial finding and securing. After all, we had a press conference as soon as we found a trailer that could have been used as a ‘clean room’. Second, for the degradation to have been enough to not have caused a press conference the amounts of gas would have had to have been in the ‘garbage’ level, hence the 'destroyed and empty' speculation.

Nice try though.

McBear,
Kentucky

Being smart is knowing the difference, in a sticky situation between a well delivered anecdote and a well delivered antidote - bear.

Last edited by mcbear; 06-22-2006 at 05:17 AM.
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post #82 of 91 (permalink) Old 06-22-2006, 05:35 AM
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Originally Posted by mcbear
Read what that point actually says.

-Despite many efforts to locate and destroy Iraq's pre Gulf War chemical munitions, filled and unfilled pre-Gulf War chemical munitions are assessed to still exist.

That point DOES NOT say WMD's have been found, only the same assumption that they are assumed to still exist. My conjecture is based on the fact that ONLY THE FIRST POINT has a fact listed, the rest are just pure conjecture.

My qualified 'guess' that they were empties is based on two thoughts. First, the level of degradation would have been enough that it did not cause major WH press conferences upon their initial finding and securing. After all, we had a press conference as soon as we found a trailer that could have been used as a ‘clean room’. Second, for the degradation to have been enough to not have caused a press conference the amounts of gas would have had to have been in the ‘garbage’ level, hence the 'destroyed and empty' speculation.

Nice try though.
Nice try, indeed.

"Since 2003 coalition forces have recovered approximately 500 weapons munitions that contain degraded mustard or sarin nerve agent."

That is what you have to go on for conjecture. It says 'degraded' not empty. Not residual.

----------------

I have proof that I don't own a car. Every time I look in the kitchen cabinet I don't find one. I even looked under the bed once. Just to prove my point and at my own expense, I looked in my beer fermenter. No car. Therefore, I have no car.

In other words, the evidence you present for the shells being empty is negative evidence. Because actions were NOT taken that you think a reasonable administration would take, for you that is proof of non-existence.

Bullshit.

--------------

Look, I think it is interesting that the administration didn't make a big deal of it. I think the explanation is far simpler. Even if the munitions had been in perfect condition and loaded in the breech, 500 shells is 500/60,000 < 1% of the presumed munitions stores pre-war intelligence estimated. That is so out of proportion as to be meaningless in an argument justifying war.

B
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post #83 of 91 (permalink) Old 06-22-2006, 05:59 AM
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Originally Posted by Botnst
Nice try, indeed.

"Since 2003 coalition forces have recovered approximately 500 weapons munitions that contain degraded mustard or sarin nerve agent."

That is what you have to go on for conjecture. It says 'degraded' not empty. Not residual.

----------------

I have proof that I don't own a car. Every time I look in the kitchen cabinet I don't find one. I even looked under the bed once. Just to prove my point and at my own expense, I looked in my beer fermenter. No car. Therefore, I have no car.

In other words, the evidence you present for the shells being empty is negative evidence. Because actions were NOT taken that you think a reasonable administration would take, for you that is proof of non-existence.

Bullshit.

--------------

Look, I think it is interesting that the administration didn't make a big deal of it. I think the explanation is far simpler. Even if the munitions had been in perfect condition and loaded in the breech, 500 shells is 500/60,000 < 1% of the presumed munitions stores pre-war intelligence estimated. That is so out of proportion as to be meaningless in an argument justifying war.

B
You just wrote 'reasonable administration'. That may take a moment to soak in. First, this is an administration that had a press conference when they found a trailer that COULD have been a clean room. This is an administration that had a press conference when sarin gas was found in Iraq and it turned out that it was the calibration on the sensors. This is an administration that has had a press conference for every little victory [and victories are good things] so it is very hard to imagine, under any circumstance that this administration would not have a press conference over the one item that it has gotten the most shit on since the start of the war.

As for degraded/residual, neither you nor I know the National Ground Intel Center nomenclature so their wording may or may not represent what we think.

And as for your car, I can't help you. But the Military has a bunch of real smart guys that do nothing but look for WMD's from space, air and land. If all they have found is 500 degraded munitions in three years it does not look good for W's original case.

McBear,
Kentucky

Being smart is knowing the difference, in a sticky situation between a well delivered anecdote and a well delivered antidote - bear.
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post #84 of 91 (permalink) Old 06-22-2006, 08:49 AM Thread Starter
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I'll bet you water squirts outta that thing
How'd you guess?

Don't believe everything you think
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post #85 of 91 (permalink) Old 06-22-2006, 10:31 AM
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Originally Posted by mcbear
You just wrote 'reasonable administration'. That may take a moment to soak in. First, this is an administration that had a press conference when they found a trailer that COULD have been a clean room. This is an administration that had a press conference when sarin gas was found in Iraq and it turned out that it was the calibration on the sensors. This is an administration that has had a press conference for every little victory [and victories are good things] so it is very hard to imagine, under any circumstance that this administration would not have a press conference over the one item that it has gotten the most shit on since the start of the war.

As for degraded/residual, neither you nor I know the National Ground Intel Center nomenclature so their wording may or may not represent what we think.

And as for your car, I can't help you. But the Military has a bunch of real smart guys that do nothing but look for WMD's from space, air and land. If all they have found is 500 degraded munitions in three years it does not look good for W's original case.
Sticking to the actual subject for a moment, the report says the munitions were degraded. It doesn't say they were empty.

In order to transform the message to agree with you contention we have to assume the word degraded is equivalent to nonexistent.

This would be a wonderful new concept for civil engineering, chemistry, and electronics.

B
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post #86 of 91 (permalink) Old 06-22-2006, 10:51 AM
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Originally Posted by Botnst
That is so out of proportion as to be meaningless in an argument justifying war.

B

wow bot. not that really matters to you anyway.. we need more expensive oil after all, no?



in political asylum
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post #87 of 91 (permalink) Old 06-22-2006, 10:52 AM
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wow bot. not that really matters to you anyway.. we need more expensive oil after all, no?
I'd prefer not to have political manipulation of commodities.
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post #88 of 91 (permalink) Old 06-22-2006, 10:54 AM
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hmmm. you like private ones though... through government means.. or your position has changed..



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post #89 of 91 (permalink) Old 06-22-2006, 11:03 AM
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hmmm. you like private ones though... through government means.. or your position has changed..
Huh? I like market economies.

I have seen no events in the world that would lead me to change my position at this juncture.
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post #90 of 91 (permalink) Old 06-22-2006, 11:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Botnst
Sticking to the actual subject for a moment, the report says the munitions were degraded. It doesn't say they were empty.

In order to transform the message to agree with you contention we have to assume the word degraded is equivalent to nonexistent.

This would be a wonderful new concept for civil engineering, chemistry, and electronics.

B
If you read what I wrote, you would note that I never, never said nonexistent. In fact, unless they were sterilized, the shells would always carry residue. All we know is that DEGRADED = LESS THAN 100%. We know nothing more.

Now, if it would not be too much trouble, please quit trying to change my words to try and bend a point.

Remember this is not a scientific discussion, it is political. If it were scientific, we would have real facts to deal with, not a one bullet fax with hazy details and five bullets with maybes.

We can only extrapolate from the POLITICAL SIDE that this is MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING because Bush was not running around with a permanent erection for a month after they were found and the WH had their obligatory "...told ya so" press conference.

McBear,
Kentucky

Being smart is knowing the difference, in a sticky situation between a well delivered anecdote and a well delivered antidote - bear.
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