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post #31 of 68 (permalink) Old 04-04-2006, 09:22 PM
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RE: A refresher on Global Cooling. errrr Global Warming

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post #32 of 68 (permalink) Old 04-04-2006, 09:24 PM
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RE: A refresher on Global Cooling. errrr Global Warming

Quote:
kvining - 4/4/2006 10:02 PM

Quote:
Botnst - 4/4/2006 10:25 PM

I'm a wacko apologist who has downloaded weather records from 1898 to the present from a dozen or so weather stations in my region. I've been doing this every month or so to look at the regional variation in temps and precip and wind vectors. Without any mind-melding from the liberal control structure in the sky, I personally filtered the data for extreme outliers (ignore > 2 SD +/-mean) and plotted the results.

There are several interesting ways to look at the data. The easiest is to plot the values over time. What you will see is an approximate sine wave which corresponds to the seasons. The amplitude is greater as one proceeds northward. Do you know why?

If you're really clever and take your time, you can remove that periodicity through calculating the periodicity that creates seasonality and subtracting that function from each value. This will result in a much less wavy plot. Or you can do like I did and say, F**k that" and look at the average highs and average lows and plot them. If you're especially ambitious you could even take the difference between those, square them, and divide it by the mean and sum the results. This gives you a measure of central tendency, the variance, over the range of the weather. Are you with me? Yes? If you have the ability to compute the variance, mean, and size of the data set, you can do some serious stats. I leave that for serious people.

Why not do the work yourself, plot it, and see what the actual data looks like rather than depending on some knuckleheaded scientist to tell you what it means. That way you wont be forced to accept on faith whether or not there is a trend in warming over any given time period for which records exist.

Bot
In problems like this we usually use a seasonality index table, with decimal values assigned to each time period which always sum to 1. Two columns make up the table - the year in question and the index value. In the particular problem you present, the weakness in the logic is going to be right there, because one cannot assume actual seasonality is not going to be static value for each - it could be affected by global warming itself. How one would compute the smoothing value itself to enter into the index table is an interesting problem in itself.

I don't know if atmospheric weather is the proper place to study global warming, given the differing theories on whether or not warm or cold weather can result from carbon dioxide induced warming due to the role played by the Gulf Stream. I think a better place to measure would be water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico or some other shallow heat sink. If global warming is occuring, the water should be getting warmer, sooner, each year, with a easy to spot positive trend line over time. Anecdotely, we should see this demonstrated in more ferocious hurricanes, and also see hurricanes tracking further to the west/northwest due to an increase in overall kinetic energy.

You might want to try plotting your results on an Xbar & R chart, leaving the outliers in. Sometimes one finds all the outliers on one side or the other, which indicates a cause other than natural chance at work. In much of the work I do, we are trying to find whether or not outliers or inliers that are not plotting as a sine wave around Xbar are due to common chance or "special cause". In other words, a string of outliers should correspond to a volcanic eruption, for example, while ones occurring by chance should appear as occasional blimps.

Just about every data set of random measurements over time plot as a sine wave +/- 2SD about the mean. Shewhart said it is a natural property of random data sets, and I've seen it all my life. It is the behavior of the sine wave that indicates whether chance or action, especially human action, is at work.
Hey guys, can I have my bong back now?[;)]

Seriously, very interesting. I'll be marinating on this later when I should be sleeping. Thanks a lot.[:(!]

[:)]
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post #33 of 68 (permalink) Old 04-04-2006, 09:25 PM
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RE: A refresher on Global Cooling. errrr Global Warming

I don't agree with the article, not on political, but strictly scientific grounds. 'Global cooling' was based on the science of the time, and were inferences being drawn from the geological data of the time, which suggests, and still does BTW, that the Earth is heading into another Ice Age, and that the natural state of the Earth is Ice Age, with warm spells being the exception, not the rule. They simply did not have the same inputs - Chinese and Indian industrialization were none existent, and the amount of carbon waste the US produces was probably not even imagined, and they had no sophisticated space-based measurement and photography equipment. Based on the data they had, this was their best guess. Most scientists still agree that this is the long term future of the planet - like all heated objects, over time the Earth is going to cool. But the question at hand is whether or not global warming is going to occur at a rate greater than the ecosystems can handle. As I stated in the above posts, if it is occuring, it will become obvious to all, because the planet's natural heat sinks will begin to produce more energy - meaning more typhoons, cyclones, tornados and hurricanes. I've just got finished reading another interesting study on how it now seems that "Tornado Alley", which used to be situated over Oklahoma and Kansas, is moving east, due to global warming. Just sit back and watch - if we start having severe tornados in East Texas,Tennesee and Arkansas while having much fewer in Kansas and Oklahoma, and more powerful hurricanes in the Gulf and more devasting cyclones in the shallow Bay of Bengal adjacent to Bangladesh, it is going to be hard to ignore global warming as the probable cause. Last year was definitely a win for the global warming proponents, because all those things occurred.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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post #34 of 68 (permalink) Old 04-04-2006, 09:35 PM
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RE: A refresher on Global Cooling. errrr Global Warming

Here is an excellent example of what I am talking about:

http://www.isixsigma.com/offsite.asp?A=Fr&Url=http://www.qualitydigest.com/mar98/html/spctool.html

This chart is scary:


Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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post #35 of 68 (permalink) Old 04-04-2006, 09:42 PM
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RE: A refresher on Global Cooling. errrr Global Warming

Quote:
Marsden - 4/4/2006 11:22 PM
Those charts blow my mind.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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post #36 of 68 (permalink) Old 04-04-2006, 09:51 PM
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RE: A refresher on Global Cooling. errrr Global Warming

Quote:
Botnst - 4/4/2006 11:19 PM

Good points, all, Kirk.

What you and I are discussing falls under the broad heading of statistical modeling. It assumes that patterns we see today indicate some future pattern. In the case that I described I could see no trend of any significane with teh first half-dozen weather stations I plotted, though most did so a slight rise in temp. I just wouldn't bet the farm on the data as I presented it from a few stations. I am now up to over a dozen stations from Galveston, TX to Mobile, AL. The slight rise is consistent for the coastal stations.

It is less consistent inland. This is probably due to the moderating influence of the GOM, which would also show-up in the sea surface temps that you recommend. I chose not to use SST because there are not many long term and consistently recorded sea surface temps.

If you (anybody) are interested in doing your own research, I strongly urge you to do so. DON'T take some egg-headed scientist's word for anything if you can help it. Get the data (its mostly in the public domain in western countries) and run it yourself. Then ask yourself and the pundits and politicians if they have ever looked at the data. F**k'em-up with reality.

The other broad category of modeling is for folks who really love physics and chemistry. It involves modeling physico-chemical interactions across the globe. if you like modeling and mathematics, take that route. Don't let anybody lead you by the nose.

Git-er done!

B
All of this data can be critisized. On the global average temperature charts (and especially on the one I posted) no one mentions that 1880-1908 were affected by an enormous volcanic eruption (Krakatoa?) and this data is essentially all "special cause" data. Using this data to establish a trend is obviously going to show a warming earth. There are also problems 1908 to 1930 or so on the construction of thermometers. The one chart that is damned hard to dispute are the ones based on ice cores, such as Marsden's chart above. The study I cited in Scientific American is based on ice cores as well - measurement of carbon content in the air bubbles, and carbon content and PH in the frozen sea water - this is the only way I think one can get a huge enough data set to smooth out the various volcanic eruptions - you can pull a thousand years out in a very orderly fashion and measure it all with the same set of instruments. Ice cores also give a dataset that can be measured with a consistent set of instruments.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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post #37 of 68 (permalink) Old 04-04-2006, 10:00 PM
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"The Cooling World" - by Peter Gwynne

"The Cooling World" - by Peter Gwynne
April 28, 1975 Newsweek
There are ominous signs that the Earth’s weather patterns have begun to change dramatically and that these changes may portend a drastic decline in food production – with serious political implications for just about every nation on Earth. The drop in food output could begin quite soon, perhaps only 10 years from now.

The regions destined to feel its impact are the great wheat-producing lands of Canada and the U.S.S.R. in the North, along with a number of marginally self-sufficient tropical areas – parts of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indochina and Indonesia – where the growing season is dependent upon the rains brought by the monsoon.

The evidence in support of these predictions has now begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with it. In England, farmers have seen their growing season decline by about two weeks since 1950, with a resultant overall loss in grain production estimated at up to 100,000 tons annually. During the same time, the average temperature around the equator has risen by a fraction of a degree – a fraction that in some areas can mean drought and desolation. Last April, in the most devastating outbreak of tornadoes ever recorded, 148 twisters killed more than 300 people and caused half a billion dollars' worth of damage in 13 U.S. states.

To scientists, these seemingly disparate incidents represent the advance signs of fundamental changes in the world's weather. The central fact is that after three quarters of a century of extraordinarily mild conditions, the earth's climate seems to be cooling down. Meteorologists disagree about the cause and extent of the cooling trend, as well as over its specific impact on local weather conditions. But they are almost unanimous in the view that the trend will reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century. If the climatic change is as profound as some of the pessimists fear, the resulting famines could be catastrophic. “A major climatic change would force economic and social adjustments on a worldwide scale,� warns a recent report by the National Academy of Sciences, “because the global patterns of food production and population that have evolved are implicitly dependent on the climate of the present century.�

A survey completed last year by Dr. Murray Mitchell of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reveals a drop of half a degree in average ground temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere between 1945 and 1968. According to George Kukla of Columbia University, satellite photos indicated a sudden, large increase in Northern Hemisphere snow cover in the winter of 1971-72. And a study released last month by two NOAA scientists notes that the amount of sunshine reaching the ground in the continental U.S. diminished by 1.3% between 1964 and 1972.

To the layman, the relatively small changes in temperature and sunshine can be highly misleading. Reid Bryson of the University of Wisconsin points out that the Earth’s average temperature during the great Ice Ages was only about seven degrees lower than during its warmest eras – and that the present decline has taken the planet about a sixth of the way toward the Ice Age average.

Others regard the cooling as a reversion to the “little ice age� conditions that brought bitter winters to much of Europe and northern America between 1600 and 1900 – years when the Thames used to freeze so solidly that Londoners roasted oxen on the ice and when iceboats sailed the Hudson River almost as far south as New York City.

Just what causes the onset of major and minor ice ages remains a mystery. “Our knowledge of the mechanisms of climatic change is at least as fragmentary as our data,� concedes the National Academy of Sciences report. “Not only are the basic scientific questions largely unanswered, but in many cases we do not yet know enough to pose the key questions.�

Meteorologists think that they can forecast the short-term results of the return to the norm of the last century. They begin by noting the slight drop in overall temperature that produces large numbers of pressure centers in the upper atmosphere. These break up the smooth flow of westerly winds over temperate areas. The stagnant air produced in this way causes an increase in extremes of local weather such as droughts, floods, extended dry spells, long freezes, delayed monsoons and even local temperature increases – all of which have a direct impact on food supplies. “The world’s food-producing system,� warns Dr. James D. McQuigg of NOAA’s Center for Climatic and Environmental Assessment, “is much more sensitive to the weather variable than it was even five years ago.� Furthermore, the growth of world population and creation of new national boundaries make it impossible for starving peoples to migrate from their devastated fields, as they did during past famines.

Climatologists are pessimistic that political leaders will take any positive action to compensate for the climatic change, or even to allay its effects. They concede that some of the more spectacular solutions proposed, such as melting the Arctic ice cap by covering it with black soot or diverting arctic rivers, might create problems far greater than those they solve. But the scientists see few signs that government leaders anywhere are even prepared to take the simple measures of stockpiling food or of introducing the variables of climatic uncertainty into economic projections of future food supplies. The longer the planners delay, the more difficult will they find it to cope with climatic change once the results become grim reality.

Don't believe everything you think
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post #38 of 68 (permalink) Old 04-04-2006, 10:20 PM
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A few other things to consider

If you are serious about the issue, you might want to check out a few articles I ran across in less than 15 minutes. There are hundreds more, if you want to know the truth.

Check 'em out:

http://www.firstthings.com/ftissues/ft0411/opinion/derr.htm
http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/ny-times-1974-08-08.pdf
http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/ny-times-1975-05-21.pdf
http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/ny-times-1975-01-19.pdf
http://www.dinosauria.com/jdp/news/freeze.html
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1034077.cms
http://www.thenewamerican.com/tna/1997/vo13no25/vo13no25_alarmism.htm
http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/newsweek-coolingworld.pdf
http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/nas-1975.html
http://www.cgfi.org/materials/articles/2004/jan_12_04.htm
http://www.globalcoolingcollective.org/
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2005-01/uori-sso010605.php

Don't believe everything you think
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post #39 of 68 (permalink) Old 04-04-2006, 10:30 PM
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Statistical Modeling?

http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/archives/2006/04/ncaa_mens_baske.html#more

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post #40 of 68 (permalink) Old 04-05-2006, 03:00 AM
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RE: A refresher on Global Cooling. errrr Global Warming

So....does anyone have an illustration of that top atmosphere to sea bottom band (in relation to global Earth) that I asked for earlier?.
I've looked around and can't find one.
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