kvining - 1/11/2006 9:43 AM
lovemyc280 - 1/11/2006 1:38 AM
This is a great website and requires a little time set aside to read it. I would love to see some feedback on this subject from people who actually read the material.
I read it all the time. The theory has strong points, and weak points. It's strong point is that it declares the obvious - there are simply no more massive pools of oil to be found on this planet, and when they become depleted, massive social problems are going to occur unless we plan for the transistion. Given our desire for unplanned free-market capitalism, we are going to experience what was experienced in the 1930's, when pure capitalism careened out of control and sent the world into a tail spin that ultimately killed probably 200 million people and didn't really end until the 1980s when the Cold War finally ended.
It's weak point is that it totally ignores Canadian and Colorado tar-sand oil deposits, which are immense, but using current technology it requires more BTU to extract than one can get from it in return, so they are currently not considered "reserves". If they were, Canada would have more reserves than Saudi Arabia and Colorado would have more reserves than Iraq. The day someone invents something that changes this equation, the oil market will turn in the opposite direction. Right now 80% of the focus of nanotech research is in finding a method to unlock this oil from the tar and sand it is trapped in using molecular level methods. Right now the companies doing this research are $2 a share companies - if you buy in and are holding the winner it will be the equivalent of winning the lottery.
But back in the real world,even if that doesn't happen, we also have, especially in the US, vast deposits of coal which could conceivably be turned into liquid fuel. They are too extreme in saying this is the end of civilization. It will be the end of the Oil Age, and the rise of something different, just as the 30s were the end of the Age of Imperialism. The question is, how much grief do we want to go through to get there? We need active government involvement and Moon-shot type programs now. The free market is a wonderful thing, but when it comes to problems of this type, the only thing it cares about is making money, not the social dislocations of market swings. In fact, the War in Iraq is a product of Peak Oil Theory - since it will be one of the few large pools left, it will increase astronomically in value to those who posess it, which is why the greedy criminals who run this country are more than willing to use your kid's life to get it, and have no desire to pursue energy policies that would stop this from happening. What a country of suckers.