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post #11 of 20 (permalink) Old 12-28-2005, 10:48 PM
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RE: As CIA predicted over two years ago, result of Iraq election will be civil war

Well, it would hardly be the first time the U.S. enacted 'regime change' in Iran.
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post #12 of 20 (permalink) Old 12-28-2005, 11:29 PM
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RE: As CIA predicted over two years ago, result of Iraq election will be civil war

civil war?

Quote:
More than 10,000 people, some carrying photos of Allawi, demonstrated in Baghdad in favor of a government that would give more power to Sunni Arabs and secular Shiites. Marches chanted “No Sunnis, no Shiites, yes for national unity.�
actually seems the opposite my man.. they are exercising their new found democratic freedoms... seems overall peaceful too...



in political asylum
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post #13 of 20 (permalink) Old 12-29-2005, 12:13 AM
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RE: As CIA predicted over two years ago, result of Iraq election will be civil war

Seems the kurds want nothing to do with this whole one Iraq thing...

http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/13495329.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp

Basic jist is that the kurds in the Iraqi army are loyal to Kurdistan first, and Iraq second. They go so far as to say they will turn on their fellow Iraq army soldiers to form an independent Kurdistan.
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post #14 of 20 (permalink) Old 12-29-2005, 06:57 AM
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RE: As CIA predicted over two years ago, result of Iraq election will be civil war

More power to the Kurds.

The dilemma faced by those engineering an oil grab in partnership with the Kurds is that Turkey - staunch ally of the US and oppressor of 'Turkish' Kurds - will not accept such independance. How do you see this panning out?
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post #15 of 20 (permalink) Old 12-29-2005, 11:14 AM
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RE: As CIA predicted over two years ago, result of Iraq election will be civil war

I'm 100% sure Iraq will digress into civil war, whether it be now or next year when we finally pull out. It's only a matter of time.

It is an interesting development given that it seems the Kurds in the north and the shiite's in the south want more of a secular government than the sunni's in the middle. The Kurds don't indentify themselves as arabs so they see themselves as different ethnically than the rest of Iraq.

I also think that if push comes to shove Turkey will do nothing. There would be too much pressure from the EU to let the Kurds do as they wish, so long as they're not talking about invading Turkey. As long as Kurdistan doesn't try to grab land held by Turkey I don't see much of an argument for Turkey to go to war.
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post #16 of 20 (permalink) Old 12-29-2005, 12:11 PM
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RE: As CIA predicted over two years ago, result of Iraq election will be civil war

If Iraq devolves into civil war, which seems likely, it will destabilize the entire region. The Turks will make a grab for Iraqi "Kurdistan" using the Ottoman Empire boundaries as a pretext. They actually tried to make a grab early in the invasion of an Iraqi oil field near the border but ran smack-into US Special Forces. End of Turkish invasion.

Iran will see the Kurdistan grab as an opportunity to grab the eastern 1/4th of Iraq. This will be more trouble for Iran since most of the Shiites in Iraq are not Persians, they're arabs. The arab shiites want their own state not one dominated by the Persians. This will result in a lengthy, brutal insurgency by arab Shiites.

The Iraqi Kurds will unite with the Kurds of eastern Turkey and western Iran to become a regional insurgency to create an oil-rich, Kurdistan from portions of Turkey, Iraq, and Iran. This will result in an brutally escalating series of reprisals and insurgency attacks in Turkey, Iran, and Iraq. It will destabilize northern Iran and eastern Turkey, allowing Al Queda to reestablish training camps in western Afghanistan.

Syria will come to the aid of the Sunni arabs of western Iraq by sending in armed forces. They will seize all of the land eastward to the Euphrates and south to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

This fractured, multifacted geo-political region will become a cauldron of resentment like Palestine. No single entity will have enough power or prestige to impose its will on the parties. All of them will be weakened by the process.

The UN will talk.

The French will wring their hands in public lamentation and sell arms to all sides through African intermediaries.

The Germans will accept engineering contracts to build battlements.

The Russians will sell anything to anybody and not give a damn what happens.

The USA will say, "We tried, but this is a problem of their own creation. Just don't f**k with the oil or we'll be back."

Bot
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post #17 of 20 (permalink) Old 12-29-2005, 02:06 PM
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RE: As CIA predicted over two years ago, result of Iraq election will be civil war

Quote:
Marsden - 12/28/2005 8:56 PM

Now it's either Iran or Syria next.
No invasion of either country will happen.
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post #18 of 20 (permalink) Old 12-29-2005, 02:07 PM
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RE: As CIA predicted over two years ago, result of Iraq election will be civil war

Quote:
Botnst - 12/29/2005 2:11 PM

The UN will talk.

The French will wring their hands in public lamentation and sell arms to all sides through African intermediaries.

The Germans will accept engineering contracts to build battlements.

The Russians will sell anything to anybody and not give a damn what happens.

The USA will say, "We tried, but this is a problem of their own creation. Just don't f**k with the oil or we'll be back."

Bot
Yes, I think that about sums it up quite nicely [:D]
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post #19 of 20 (permalink) Old 12-29-2005, 02:09 PM Thread Starter
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RE: As CIA predicted over two years ago, result of Iraq election will be civil war

Quote:
Ammonium - 12/29/2005 2:13 AM

Seems the kurds want nothing to do with this whole one Iraq thing...

http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/13495329.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp

Basic jist is that the kurds in the Iraqi army are loyal to Kurdistan first, and Iraq second. They go so far as to say they will turn on their fellow Iraq army soldiers to form an independent Kurdistan.
The Kurds are just bideing their time until we leave. No Kurdish politician can get elected to anything without proclaiming his desire for an independent Kurdistan.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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post #20 of 20 (permalink) Old 12-29-2005, 02:19 PM Thread Starter
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RE: As CIA predicted over two years ago, result of Iraq election will be civil war

Quote:
Ammonium - 12/29/2005 1:14 PM

I'm 100% sure Iraq will digress into civil war, whether it be now or next year when we finally pull out. It's only a matter of time.

It is an interesting development given that it seems the Kurds in the north and the shiite's in the south want more of a secular government than the sunni's in the middle. The Kurds don't indentify themselves as arabs so they see themselves as different ethnically than the rest of Iraq.

I also think that if push comes to shove Turkey will do nothing. There would be too much pressure from the EU to let the Kurds do as they wish, so long as they're not talking about invading Turkey. As long as Kurdistan doesn't try to grab land held by Turkey I don't see much of an argument for Turkey to go to war.
Actually, that is not quite the calculus - the Baath Party's Arabist ideaology, which is not a religious ideaology, posits an "Arab Nation", where all Arabs are united in a socialist state. Secular Sunnis and secular Shiites are united under the Baath banner throughout the Middle East. Along the fringes of both these groups are the fundies - Sunni Al Queda nutcases and Shiite Islamic Republic nutcases, who want us all dead. The outcome of the Iraq's distorted election, fractured social structure and cobbed-together state is in the end so incredible that it is down right laughable - the US Armed Forces are going to be put at the services of an Iraqi Islamic Republic, a de-facto satellitle of Iran, led by the Aytollah Sistani, a guy who is so Persian he doesn't even speak Arabic. What a fucking joke - all these billions, all these dead men, and we are going to end up building a state for one of our greatest enemies - the murderous, pig fuck thugs who run Iran. The whole thing is hysterical.


Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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