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post #1 of 10 (permalink) Old 09-21-2005, 01:37 PM Thread Starter
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Rita could equal $5 gas

First Post in Off-Topic, but regular visitor...

Interesting article on CNN about the effect of Rita on Gas Prices.....

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Remember when gas spiked to $3-plus a gallon after Hurricane Katrina? By this time next week, that could seem like the good old days.

Weather and energy experts say that as bad as Hurricane Katrina hit the nation's supply of gasoline, Hurricane Rita could be worse.

Katrina damage was focused on offshore oil platforms and ports. Now the greater risk is to oil-refinery capacity, especially if Rita slams into Houston, Galveston and Port Arthur, Texas.

"We could be looking at gasoline lines and $4 gas, maybe even $5 gas, if this thing does the worst it could do," said energy analyst Peter Beutel of Cameron Hanover. "This storm is in the wrong place. And it's absolutely at the wrong time," said Beutel.

Michael Schlacter, chief meteorologist at Weather 2000, said Rita now appears most likely to hit between Port Arthur and Corpus Christi, Texas, sometime between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning.

Just about all of Texas's refinery capacity lies in that at-risk zone. (For a look at CNN.com's coverage of Hurricane Rita, click here.)

"There is no lucky 7-10 split scenario to use a bowling analogy," he said. "If you're [a refiner] within 200 miles, you're going to feel the effect."

Compounding Katrina's impact
When Katrina hit, 15 refineries, nearly all in Louisiana and Mississippi, with a combined capacity of about 3.3 million barrels a day were shut down or damaged, according to the Energy Department. That represented almost 20 percent of U.S. refining capacity.

Within a week, almost two-thirds of that damaged capacity had resumed some operations, according to the department. But four refineries with nearly 900,000 barrels a day of capacity are still basically shut down.

If Rita hits both the Houston-Galveston area, as well as the Port Arthur-Beaumont region near the Texas-Louisiana border, that could take out more than 3 million barrels of capacity a day, according to Bob Tippee, editor of the industry trade journal Oil & Gas Journal in Houston.

"Before Katrina, the system was already so tight that the worst-case scenario was for a disruption that took 250,000 barrels of capacity out of the picture. That would have been considered a major jolt," said Tippee.

"We're already in uncharted territory now. We can't project what happens from another shot the size of Katrina or worse."

Part of the problem is that skilled crews needed to make refinery repairs are already busy trying to fix the Katrina damage. That would extend recovery time from Rita.

"[Rita] could have a significant impact on supply and prices -- this really is a national disaster," Valero Energy (Research) CEO Bill Greehey in an interview with Reuters Tuesday evening.

Gas not the only concern
Problems could spread beyond the gas pumps.

Tippee said that natural-gas prices could see a further spike, since so many of the offshore platforms off of Texas produce natural gas, not crude oil.

And while gasoline imports have helped bring gas prices down from record highs, there isn't as much potential for heating-oil imports, he noted.

"Gasoline tends to obscure everything, especially since we aren't paying heating bills right now," said Tippee. "But we were already looking at a winter fuel problem. We're about to take another hit that will cause a lot of problems."

Schlacter said even the oil platforms off the Louisiana Gulf Coast, which are not likely to take a direct hit from Rita, could be affected by large waves churning up the Gulf of Mexico as the storm passes to the south. Waves of as much as 40 to 50 feet could hit the platforms off the Texas Coast, he estimated.

Tippee said that production across the Gulf is already being affected by oil companies pulling workers off platforms ahead of the storm. And it's not just domestic oil being interrupted.

The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP), the nation's largest gateway for overseas oil, stopped accepting deliveries of its 1.2 million barrels of oil a day Wednesday afternoon due to high seas, LOOP spokeswoman Barb Hesterman told Reuters. She said the disruption was expected to be "for a short time."

But if Katrina is any guide, it could take several days after Rita passes for production to resume even at oil and gas platforms that escape damage.

"There were several days where if you could have gotten out to the platform, you could have started it back up, but you couldn't find the boats or helicopters you needed to get back to the platforms," he said.


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post #2 of 10 (permalink) Old 09-21-2005, 02:59 PM
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RE: Rita could equal $5 gas

There is a particular path that Rita could follow that would destroy the economy of the US. If you look at a map, at the northern tip of Galveston Island there is a gap that allows entry into Galveston Bay. At the tip of the gap, on the mainland, to your left, is Texas City. If the eye wall strikes it, and the hurricane continues on into Galveston Bay, the US will lose most of its refining capacity in a couple of hours. It will also cause an environmental disaster on a scale never seen on this earth. You know that crap you spray on your yard to kill bugs, you know, where you put one little cap full into a sprayer, and it kills every little fucking nasty for a city block and stinks up your house with cancer causing fumes? Well, imagine a bunch of 70,000 gallon tankfulls of the stuff washing into the Gulf Stream, and add a few hundred million gallons of other assorted pesticides, herbicides, industrial solvents, gasoline and crude oil in for good measure. The pesticides won't float to the top like crude and gas does - it is designed to mix in water. You want dead fish? You'll have them from Texas to England. And that's not all. Right now we got all of this winter's heating oil for the US, Canada and Northern Europe sitting on the docks and terminals, waiting to be picked up and sent up north. Imagine what it will do to the economy if it washes into the Gulf. It'll make New Orleans look like a cake walk. We are a really,really stupid country when it comes to disaster preparedness, mostly thanks to "states rights" nut cases who aren't smart enough to see we need federal regulations to deal with these problems.





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post #3 of 10 (permalink) Old 09-21-2005, 03:03 PM
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RE: Rita could equal $5 gas

One day you'll post that all is fine and dandy in the world, it will be then that a meteor the size of Neptune will slam into the Northern hemisphere making things REALLY unpleasant.

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post #4 of 10 (permalink) Old 09-21-2005, 03:08 PM
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RE: Rita could equal $5 gas

Quote:
ThrillKill - 9/21/2005 5:03 PM

One day you'll post that all is fine and dandy in the world, it will be then that a meteor the size of Neptune will slam into the Northern hemisphere making things REALLY unpleasant.
The scary thing is that I am turning out to be right most of the time. Ask Germanstar - we were posting pretty much a 100% description of how Iraq would turn out when all those other idiots were still waving their flags. Next we predicted the failure of a "democratic" Iraq. And we continual stated what a loser Bush was, starting back when these right wing guys were just about saying they wanted to blow him in public, on these forums. Now even that can no longer be hidden. That's why I get banned all the time - I'm right and they are wrong.


Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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post #5 of 10 (permalink) Old 09-21-2005, 03:14 PM
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RE: Rita could equal $5 gas

Quote:
kvining - 9/21/2005 3:59 PM

There is a particular path that Rita could follow that would destroy the economy of the US. If you look at a map, at the northern tip of Galveston Island there is a gap that allows entry into Galveston Bay. At the tip of the gap, on the mainland, to your left, is Texas City. If the eye wall strikes it, and the hurricane continues on into Galveston Bay, the US will lose most of its refining capacity in a couple of hours. It will also cause an environmental disaster on a scale never seen on this earth. You know that crap you spray on your yard to kill bugs, you know, where you put one little cap full into a sprayer, and it kills every little fucking nasty for a city block and stinks up your house with cancer causing fumes? Well, imagine a bunch of 70,000 gallon tankfulls of the stuff washing into the Gulf Stream, and add a few hundred million gallons of other assorted pesticides, herbicides, industrial solvents, gasoline and crude oil in for good measure. The pesticides won't float to the top like crude and gas does - it is designed to mix in water. You want dead fish? You'll have them from Texas to England. And that's not all. Right now we got all of this winter's heating oil for the US, Canada and Northern Europe sitting on the docks and terminals, waiting to be picked up and sent up north. Imagine what it will do to the economy if it washes into the Gulf. It'll make New Orleans look like a cake walk. We are a really,really stupid country when it comes to disaster preparedness, mostly thanks to "states rights" nut cases who aren't smart enough to see we need federal regulations to deal with these problems.



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post #6 of 10 (permalink) Old 09-21-2005, 03:16 PM
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RE: Rita could equal $5 gas

Maybe I'm just a glass half full(preferably with Basil Hayden) kind of guy. If you dwell on bad shit, bad shit happens.....Karma and all that hoo-ha. I guess if you don't forsee these things you're considered apathetic. Got you a new avatar at any rate. Might need to be slightly reduced in size.
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post #7 of 10 (permalink) Old 09-21-2005, 03:44 PM
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RE: Rita could equal $5 gas

Quote:
kvining - 9/21/2005 5:08 PM

Quote:
ThrillKill - 9/21/2005 5:03 PM

One day you'll post that all is fine and dandy in the world, it will be then that a meteor the size of Neptune will slam into the Northern hemisphere making things REALLY unpleasant.
The scary thing is that I am turning out to be right most of the time. Ask Germanstar - we were posting pretty much a 100% description of how Iraq would turn out when all those other idiots were still waving their flags. Next we predicted the failure of a "democratic" Iraq. And we continual stated what a loser Bush was, starting back when these right wing guys were just about saying they wanted to blow him in public, on these forums. Now even that can no longer be hidden. That's why I get banned all the time - I'm right and they are wrong.
Those guys hate the truth. It is why they don't ban boner and countless others, but send you packing.

You guys have said the same thing from the start. That is always ignored while strawmen are built instead.
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post #8 of 10 (permalink) Old 09-21-2005, 07:39 PM
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RE: Rita could equal $5 gas

KV's pointing out a simple and unfortuanatly a very possible scenario. Forget nuclear accidents, so long as the reactor doesn't blow the roof off the building (Chernobyl) its fairly easy to contain. Chemicals of any sort nevermind chemicals on the scale that KV is talking about would be almost impossible to contain if they got loose. The cleanup effort would only do so much. Only time, and i'm talking decades here, would be able to fix the mess that he's talking about.

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post #9 of 10 (permalink) Old 09-21-2005, 07:42 PM
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RE: Rita could equal $5 gas

I filled up uesterday and it was the lowest I've seen for a few weeks. Looks like it will go up again.

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post #10 of 10 (permalink) Old 09-21-2005, 08:00 PM
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RE: Rita could equal $5 gas

Welcome to the hornet's nest firstmb -- stick around and join the fun!

"If spending money you don't have is the height of stupidity, borrowing money to give it away is the height of insanity." -- anon
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