God? and stuff.... - Page 28 - Mercedes-Benz Forum

LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
post #271 of 273 (permalink) Old 09-30-2005, 06:09 PM
worst mod in BW history
ThrillKill's Avatar
Date registered: Apr 2005
Vehicle: ML CLK Iridescent Hyundai Accent lol,GoPed Freightshaker & Volvo semi's, c'mawn?
Location: Chicago
Posts: 27,762
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Quoted: 3 Post(s)
Lifetime Premium Member
RE: God? and stuff....

This is all very facinating, and not to steal your thunder but, did you know that if you put equal amounts of baking soda and vinegar in a bottle and cork it it'll go POP!! Just like that, POP!

ThrillKill is offline  
Sponsored Links
post #272 of 273 (permalink) Old 09-30-2005, 09:30 PM
BenzWorld Elite
MarcusF's Avatar
Date registered: Apr 2005
Vehicle: 2002 CLK430
Location: Southern California
Posts: 1,681
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Quoted: 3 Post(s)
RE: Dumbing it up

Botnst - 9/30/2005 4:31 PM
Your knowledge of genetics and evolution come from Darwin, a book published in 1962 and an article published in a nontechnical opinion journal (Bulletin of Atomic Scientists).

Believe it or not, but the world of evolutionary genetics is braoder and deeper than that bookshelf. Get thee to an academic library and take a walk on teh wild side. QK is a good place to start.

"It is entirely in line with the accidental nature of mutations that extensive tests have agreed in showing the vast majority of them detrimental to the organism in its job of surviving and reproducing. Good ones are so rare we can consider them all bad."

The first statement is dogma in genetics. The second one is his personal interpetation of that dogma. I doubt that he truly believes that but was using the description to explain how rare are useful mutations. Context is everything, isn't it?

So what would you guess to be a number so small as to be insignificant? 1:2? 1:10? 1:1,000? 1:100,000? 1:1X10^6? 1:1X10^9? 6.023X10^23? More? Less?

Perhaps we can look at it in terms of some physical phenomena. If you were given a chance to be an astronaut, which is the highest risk you would find acceptable? At which probability would you quit making bets? And so forth. By this method, we get a feel for probability.

There are about 1.5 X10^9 base pairs in the haploid complement of human DNA, providing information for coding some 30,000 genes. A shift in any of the base pairs is likely to produce a radically (and most of, deadly) different gene. There are about 6X10^9 humans. That gives us 9X10^18 base pairs.

I think that gives us a fair number of parameters with which to play guessing games. Now, what would you consider an insignificant number?

I observed a few oddities in your post. You claimed to where my knowledge of genetics and evolution come from. You know of a few quotes that I’ve used regarding evolution. How that transcribes into knowing where my knowledge of evolution comes from is unclear. Unless of course, you meant you were aware of where some of my knowledge of evolution comes from. Secondly, you doubt a person believes what he clearly said. Taking you at your word and following that to the next step, it would seem that reaching any consensus will be problematic.

At any rate, mathematically speaking, an event with an implausibility greater than 1:10^50 is a miracle. Of course, you said insignificant, not impossible. Since you don’t care for my earlier sources, I’ll take this as an opportunity to use a common quote from something a bit more modern; The Religion of Nature: Social Darwinism from 1994. The author has a Ph.D. in cell biology from Brown University. He estimates the probability of getting five mutations, good or bad, in the same nucleus, as 1 :10^22. Impossible? No. Implausible? Highly. So, that’s my answer. 1:10^22nd, the probability of getting five mutations in the same nucleus is, using your term, insignificant. As long as I’m using that book as a reference, using 1:10^22, the author claims “If there was a population of 100 million organisms with a reproductive cycle of 1 day, such an event (5 mutations in one nucleus) would be expected to occur once in 274 billion years!� Assuming the five mutations occurred, I’m unclear how that one instance demonstrates chance molecular movement as a viable solution to problem of creating new subsystems. I’m not saying it’s impossible, I saying I don’t see it.
MarcusF is offline  
post #273 of 273 (permalink) Old 10-01-2005, 06:14 PM
BenzWorld Elite
Date registered: Sep 2004
Vehicle: 95 E300
Location: Inside my head
Posts: 36,850
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Quoted: 392 Post(s)
RE: God? and stuff....

For some reason, I can't get the final post to this thread unless I change to print format.

IIRC, the previous post indicated willingness to believe that anything as improbably as 1X10^50 is miraculous. That's cool. I never knew there was a threshhold and that one is as good as any I suppose.

That being the case, the probability of 5 independent useful mutations in a cell is 1X10^28 times less than a mircle, making it seem tedious, perhaps mundane but not impossible, as the quote indicated that you previously posted. But what is the possibility of a single beneficial mutation? The reason I ask is this. A poker deck consists of 52 independent cards. What's the chance of getting say, an ace? 4/52=1/13, right?

Put that ace down on the table. Shuffle the deck. Now pull a card from the deck. Without looking at it, what is the chance that the second card is an ace? 3:51=1/17?

What is the probability that you would draw two aces? 1/13 * 1/17 = 1/221? Are you with me?

What I'm getting at is that the probability of getting one beneficial mutation is not simple division of 1X10^22 by 5. Rather, it is the conditional probability of the five events. Since the author you cited doesn't provide a measure of the liklihood of a single benficial event occuring, we are at a loss. So what shall we do, guess?

Why not?

I'm guessing that it is 1/(1X10^6). If you can find a figure backed by research, I'll go with your revised figure. Until then, we're using mine.

How many people men live in the USA? Say, 120 million? That means 12 of us guys are wandering around carrying a load of mutated sperm as a result of our parents having produced us (accepting that they had the same mutation rate as us). And then there's a dozen women, out wandering around with their 12 mutant sets of genes, too. So that gets us 24 mutoes.

Lets say they reproduce at the average rate for americans, 1.3 offspring per adult. Those mutants are going to put more sets of beneficial mutant genes into the system then when they were born. And if the mutation is especially beneficial, like say a sexy pheromone, they may boost that rate considerably.

Now let's do the world's population = 6X10^9/10^6= 6X10^3 or 6,000 mutants scattered around the globe hoping to pass along some superior genes with the help of a willing partner.

How do those few mutants have an effect on the population (absent natural selection)? At this point we have to argue about the different types of mutations. Trust me, this gets technical to a level that only a geneticist could love.

Like let's imagine that JJL has a peculiar mutation that renders him immune to say, Bird Flu and Bird Flu becomes a pandemic with unusually high mortality, like Spanish Flu, perhaps. JJL may have passed his mutation on to his children. So JJl and his kids survive the pandemic but many people in Scotland do not. Of those who do survive, a certain number maybe in possession of teh same mutant gene as JJL's family. Will the grandchildren of JJl's post-pandemic generation be more, or less likely to have the mutant gene conferring resistence?

If the pandemic persists for several generations, will the gene flow through the population at increasing frquency, since non-posessors will be more likely to die?

This is natural selection in action. It has been demonstrated in the lab with organisms in almost exactly that fashion. It is a fact. How many mutations are required to create a genetically isolated population? It depends on a lot of factors.

Botnst is offline  
Sponsored Links

  Mercedes-Benz Forum > General Mercedes-Benz Forums > Off-Topic

Quick Reply

Register Now

In order to be able to post messages on the Mercedes-Benz Forum forums, you must first register.
Please enter your desired user name, your email address and other required details in the form below.

User Name:
Please enter a password for your user account. Note that passwords are case-sensitive.


Confirm Password:
Email Address
Please enter a valid email address for yourself.

Email Address:


  • Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
    Thread Tools
    Show Printable Version Show Printable Version
    Email this Page Email this Page
    Display Modes
    Linear Mode Linear Mode

    Posting Rules  
    You may post new threads
    You may post replies
    You may not post attachments
    You may not edit your posts

    BB code is On
    Smilies are On
    [IMG] code is On
    HTML code is Off
    Trackbacks are On
    Pingbacks are On
    Refbacks are On


    Title goes here

    video goes here
    description goes here. Read Full Story
    For the best viewing experience please update your browser to Google Chrome