Should be an interesting day tomorrow in Lebanon - Page 2 - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #11 of 26 (permalink) Old 03-10-2005, 05:55 AM
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RE: Should be an interesting day tomorrow in Lebanon

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kvining - 3/8/2005 11:54 PM

I am sure the Syrians have overstayed their welcome, however, my concern is who will fill the power vaccuum after they leave. The main reason they invaded in the first place was because the UN was unable to get it's act together to stop the genocidal civil war that took place during the Cold War. Absent the UN, what will become of Lebanon? Will Hezbollah resume rocket attacks on the Israelis? Will the Christians and Muslims resume car bomb attacks? Or is the country actually ready for democracy? My personal view is based on the most obvious fact - Hezbollah is extremely strong in Lebanon, and they are not going to simply roll over.
This is the scene in Lebanon , and it is far away from what is mentioned above .

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post #12 of 26 (permalink) Old 03-10-2005, 06:02 AM
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RE: Should be an interesting day tomorrow in Lebanon

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kvining - 3/10/2005 7:38 AM

The crowd estimates of the pro-Syrian factions were 500,000 people. That's a lot of people to put on a bus. It's obvious to me that this country is split down the middle, just as it was before the last civil war. I don't see this turning out well.
News report indicated a large proportion were from the Palestinian refugee camps.

The refugees are a wrinkle nobody has mentioned much. They're pissed and who can blame them? They see no justice for themselevs, stuck in miserable camps without hope for their future. Why not support power where they find it? For peace to become a reality in that region the Palestinian refugees have to be given hope for their future.
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post #13 of 26 (permalink) Old 03-10-2005, 06:18 AM
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RE: Should be an interesting day tomorrow in Lebanon

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kvining - 3/10/2005 1:38 PM

The crowd estimates of the pro-Syrian factions were 500,000 people. That's a lot of people to put on a bus. It's obvious to me that this country is split down the middle, just as it was before the last civil war. I don't see this turning out well.
Arround a thousand and five hundred bus or truck if you want to say arrived from Syria to the different borders of lebanon carrying 250,000 Syrian , then they were dipatched by cars barring the lebanese plates numbers.

Also Lebanese pro syrian authorities forced some municipalities excluding beirut and moutn of Lebanon to engage in the protestations .
And like I said before some palestinians and some pro syrian parties .

The difference in the level of people is clear opposition parties were led by flowers and prayers and candles of hope meanwhile pro syrian protestations were led by force + different flags and mainly syrian flags .

Open discussion is what all Lebanese are asking looking for no one wants to get back to a civil war .

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post #14 of 26 (permalink) Old 03-10-2005, 06:44 AM
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RE: Should be an interesting day tomorrow in Lebanon

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SILVER ARROW - 3/8/2005 1:27 AM

Like I’ve said before, the Syrian presence in the last few years wasn’t for security purposes. They were interfering in the political life and they were used for intimidation. It was the Lebanese army and security forces who were providing security and will continue to do so after the withdrawal.

After the Syrian withdrawal, there are elections in May. These elections should be very transparent and free. I believe the opposition will win up to 50% of the seats or even more.

The country is more than ever ready for full democracy. I have mentioned before that before the 1975 war, Lebanon was a full democracy (The first Arab democracy since 1943). From the 90s and on, we had a semi-democracy, if I can call it. We have freedom of speech and expression. Most media (journalism and TV) are in opposition. We have opposition members of parliament. But Syria always interferes so that it can guarantee more than 50% pro-Syrian deputies in the parliament. This will definitely change after the withdrawal.

As for the Christians and Muslims resume car bomb attacks, that’s very unlikely. The Lebanese have tried the bitter war and experienced its effects. No Lebanese is willing now to do anything that will jeopardize the peace. No one is willing to go back to the old black days. There is full consensus about that. Both the Pro and opposition include all religions. It’s not a religious fight anymore, it’s a political fight.

Concerning the future of Hezbollah, it will remain a strong influential party in the country. It will not resume rocket launching on Israel. The main reason why they did that in the past was in retaliation to Israeli shelling and killing of civilians in Southern Lebanon. 99% of the times, they were targeting Israeli forces in Lebanon to force them to withdraw which they eventually did in 2000. They will continue to be armed for defensive measures. On the Lebanese-Israeli border, there’s what’s called a balance of fear. The Israeli won’t attack fearing Hizbollah retaliation, and Hizbollah won’t attack fearing Israeli retaliation. There is occasional fighting between the two in a small disputed area called the Shebaa Farms, but causalities are extremely rare.
Totally in agreement with you .

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post #15 of 26 (permalink) Old 03-10-2005, 08:15 AM Thread Starter
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RE: Should be an interesting day tomorrow in Lebanon

Gee, I wonder who wins? The guys with guns & money or the guys with flowers & candles? Don't everybody chime in all at once now....
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post #16 of 26 (permalink) Old 03-10-2005, 08:27 AM
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RE: Should be an interesting day tomorrow in Lebanon

TRUE: The demonstration was really huge. There were Syrians and Palestinians, but the majorities were Lebanese. One has to admit that. Mostly 85% were Shiites. Hizbollah was flexing their muscles on Tuesday, and to look on the bright side: this is the maximum they can do. The opposition can’t reach this number in the demonstration, but it can reach it and more in the electoral boxes. People supporting the opposition have real jobs. They can’t just leave and go demonstrated. However they will vote on Election Day (a Sunday usually). Hizbollah supporters have small shops and they stop work and go demonstrate when ordered to do so by Hizbollah.

It was a farewell party for the Syrians. But I believe the there was a message behind it. Hizbollah wanted the Syrians to stay but not because he’s happy with their presence and that’s all. UN resolution 1559 calls on Syrian withdrawal and removal of militia weapons. The Syrian withdrawal is a fait-a-complis. The decision has been taken, and it will take place before the elections. Hizbollah was afraid that they are next on the list. This is why the demonstration was held; to tell everyone: “DON’T THINK ABOUT IT�. And I guess the message worked internally and externally. Directly after the demonstration, the opposition stressed on the fact that all they care about is the Syrian withdrawal. And today, a senior US State Department spokesman told reporters that the US is turning a blind eye on Hizbollah and are also concentrating on the Syrian withdrawal.

The situation will continue to be tense for a couple of months until the elections in May. But things are under control.

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post #17 of 26 (permalink) Old 03-10-2005, 10:32 AM
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RE: Should be an interesting day tomorrow in Lebanon

wtf? turning a blind eye towards Hezbollah.. i thought we were in the middle of war on Terror...

i hope everythig turns out peachy like you guys say although i am not as optimistic but will keep my fingers crossed for you all...



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post #18 of 26 (permalink) Old 03-10-2005, 02:19 PM
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RE: Should be an interesting day tomorrow in Lebanon

I heard on the news today that the New York Timse reported that the American administration is thinking of removing Hizbollah from the terrorism list and consider it as a political party. I was surprised to hear that too. Believe me.

But I think I know why they’re at least thinking about it. Like I said the opposition is not dealing with the Hizbollah issue. They are concentrating on the Syrian withdrawal. And so is the US. Hizbollah has a lot of supporters, and if it felt threatened at the moment by the opposition or by the US, this will hurt the opposition’s chances a little. My guess is that the US will step up the pressure on Hizbollah after the elections.


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post #19 of 26 (permalink) Old 03-10-2005, 04:05 PM
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RE: Should be an interesting day tomorrow in Lebanon

I'll bet the US administration is offering recognition of Hizbollah as a viable political party for three reasons. The first is to encourage them to peacefully embrace democratic rule. The second is to put pressure on Israel to enter more serious negotiations with Palestinians--If the EU and USA both recognize Hizbollah, Israel will be caught in a tough position. The third is to nudge Hizbollah out of Iranian influence. The reality of the USA being comfortable with a Shiite plurality running Iraq may encourage Hizbollah to seek Iraqi alliance rather than Iranian.

At this point, the USA is not going to do anything overt concerning Hizbollah. It will be quiet, subtle, and lots of room for the USA to back-out. The nut-crunching will come for the USA and Israel when and if Hizbollah accepts democratic rule in Lebanon and disarms.
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post #20 of 26 (permalink) Old 03-10-2005, 04:41 PM
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RE: Should be an interesting day tomorrow in Lebanon

That’s a very interesting enlightenment.

The EU already don’t have Hizbollah on their terrorist list.

The Israeli press has already shown its discontent and objection over this.

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