That Guy - 2/23/2005 2:10 PM
Botnst - 2/20/2005 7:44 PM
At some point the human growth curve is going to intersect with limiting resources. That also is predictable without a PhD in anything.
What is less certain is how we, humanity will react. I'm betting on war--that's the way conflict is usually resolved in biological systems and I don't think humans are especially far removed from their biology. IMO oil is the second resource over which we have had global conflict. What would you say the first was?
The next resource over which there will be large-scale conflict I predict will be potable water.
What do you think?
I think your a Malthusian. My bet is that it will likely be war, pestilience, or famine.
I'm going to venture a guess that the first resource to spark a world wide conflict was gold.
I would posit that its not necessary that the human growth curve will definitely intersect with the available resources curve. In fact, there are things such as technology which will continue to push the resource curve out, preventing intersection.
I personally think that the idea that all of this will happen suddenly or at a particular point in time is misleading. All of these factors (technology, scarcity of resources, population, war, pestilence, and famine) are constantly at play with eachother oscillating around a point of equilibrium. Today may be part of a larger swing away from equilibrium, but is not likely to come crashing down around us all of a sudden.