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post #21 of 27 (permalink) Old 02-23-2005, 12:10 PM
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RE: Our envirnomnet

Quote:
Botnst - 2/20/2005 7:44 PM

At some point the human growth curve is going to intersect with limiting resources. That also is predictable without a PhD in anything.

What is less certain is how we, humanity will react. I'm betting on war--that's the way conflict is usually resolved in biological systems and I don't think humans are especially far removed from their biology. IMO oil is the second resource over which we have had global conflict. What would you say the first was?

The next resource over which there will be large-scale conflict I predict will be potable water.

What do you think?

B
I think your a Malthusian. My bet is that it will likely be war, pestilience, or famine.

I'm going to venture a guess that the first resource to spark a world wide conflict was gold.

I would posit that its not necessary that the human growth curve will definitely intersect with the available resources curve. In fact, there are things such as technology which will continue to push the resource curve out, preventing intersection.

I personally think that the idea that all of this will happen suddenly or at a particular point in time is misleading. All of these factors (technology, scarcity of resources, population, war, pestilence, and famine) are constantly at play with eachother oscillating around a point of equilibrium. Today may be part of a larger swing away from equilibrium, but is not likely to come crashing down around us all of a sudden.
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post #22 of 27 (permalink) Old 02-23-2005, 08:11 PM
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RE: Our envirnomnet

Quote:
That Guy - 2/23/2005 2:10 PM

Quote:
Botnst - 2/20/2005 7:44 PM

At some point the human growth curve is going to intersect with limiting resources. That also is predictable without a PhD in anything.

What is less certain is how we, humanity will react. I'm betting on war--that's the way conflict is usually resolved in biological systems and I don't think humans are especially far removed from their biology. IMO oil is the second resource over which we have had global conflict. What would you say the first was?

The next resource over which there will be large-scale conflict I predict will be potable water.

What do you think?

B
I think your a Malthusian. My bet is that it will likely be war, pestilience, or famine.

I'm going to venture a guess that the first resource to spark a world wide conflict was gold.

I would posit that its not necessary that the human growth curve will definitely intersect with the available resources curve. In fact, there are things such as technology which will continue to push the resource curve out, preventing intersection.

I personally think that the idea that all of this will happen suddenly or at a particular point in time is misleading. All of these factors (technology, scarcity of resources, population, war, pestilence, and famine) are constantly at play with eachother oscillating around a point of equilibrium. Today may be part of a larger swing away from equilibrium, but is not likely to come crashing down around us all of a sudden.
I'm a sort of Malthusian, in that population density can be a factor long before resources become limited. But Malthus' sociological extrapolations are a bit too mystical for me.

Wasn't the cause of the first global war /colonialism/mercantilism?

You faith in technology is interesting. I guess most people have faith in something.

There is not a single factor controlling the trajectory of humanity, therefore I doubt that there will be a single cause of civilization's collapse. Heck, it could be a planet killing meteor, a giant solar flare, run-away greenhouse, pestilence, war, ...etc. I have no idea which combination or individual factor will push us over into anarchy. But the field of causative agents is so rich in fruit that I believe eventually we'll have a harvest.
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post #23 of 27 (permalink) Old 02-23-2005, 09:34 PM
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RE: Our envirnomnet

Here's hoping that Mod will save us from ourselves.....

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post #24 of 27 (permalink) Old 02-23-2005, 09:41 PM
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RE: Our environment

Pack enough rats into a finite living space and they'll effectively kill themselves. I'm confident we'll do the same, the means is unimportant.

"If spending money you don't have is the height of stupidity, borrowing money to give it away is the height of insanity." -- anon
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post #25 of 27 (permalink) Old 02-24-2005, 04:31 AM
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RE: Our envirnomnet

Ron, correctamundo, bottom line. Ye canny change the laws of physics, and the current ape infestation this planet is suffering from is a small and passing thing, doesn't bear thinking about, really.

Anyone seriosly interested in this subject please consider this book:

How Many People Can the Earth Support?
by Joel E. Cohen

I used it in teaching, balanced & brilliant stuff. Scares the hell out of people.



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post #26 of 27 (permalink) Old 02-24-2005, 05:24 AM
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RE: Our envirnomnet

Quote:
That Guy - 2/23/2005 2:10 PM

Quote:
Botnst - 2/20/2005 7:44 PM

At some point the human growth curve is going to intersect with limiting resources. That also is predictable without a PhD in anything.

What is less certain is how we, humanity will react. I'm betting on war--that's the way conflict is usually resolved in biological systems and I don't think humans are especially far removed from their biology. IMO oil is the second resource over which we have had global conflict. What would you say the first was?

The next resource over which there will be large-scale conflict I predict will be potable water.

What do you think?

B
I think your a Malthusian. My bet is that it will likely be war, pestilience, or famine.

I'm going to venture a guess that the first resource to spark a world wide conflict was gold.....
And slaves.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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post #27 of 27 (permalink) Old 02-24-2005, 10:56 AM
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oh shit

read this....

Quote:
Fuel Chemical Found in Mothers' Milk
Email this Story

Feb 24, 11:56 AM (ET)

By BETSY BLANEY

LUBBOCK, Texas (AP) - A toxic chemical used in rocket fuel was found in virtually every sample taken in a new study of nursing mothers' milk, but researchers said it is too early to know whether the perchlorate levels are dangerous.

The multistate study by Texas Tech University researchers, published this week, found that perchlorate levels in breast milk samples were on average five times higher than those detected in dairy milk pulled from grocery stores.

Perchlorate has been linked to thyroid ailments, and is considered particularly dangerous to children. It has been found in drinking water supplies in 35 states and also in vegetables. While the chemical occurs naturally, the National Academy of Sciences has said most of the contamination is from its use in rocket fuels, fireworks and explosives.

Contamination is especially widespread in California because of the many current and former defense and space program sites in the state.

According to public health advocates, perchlorate is in the water that supplies more than 16 million Californians. It has also been found in the Colorado River, the major source of drinking water and irrigation in Southern California and Arizona.

California Sens. Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer said the study underscored concerns about the chemical. Boxer sent a letter to state and federal health officials asking them to determine whether mothers should have their breast milk tested before breast-feeding.

"We've got to come to grips with the perchlorate situation quickly," Feinstein said in a statement. "And EPA has to move quickly to set a national drinking water standard that protects the health and safety of all Americans."

However, the milk study shouldn't raise "undue alarm" because the seriousness of its findings is unclear, said Ed Urbansky, a former Environmental Protection Agency chemist who has published several papers on perchlorate. He was not involved with the study.

"It's very difficult to determine what the findings might be other than to know it might be in so many milk samples," he said. "It's important not to raise undue alarm over the significance of the finding.

"We shouldn't be running through the streets screaming and not drinking milk because of this."

For the study, conducted over a two-year period, researchers obtained milk from more than 20 women selected at random and from stores in 23 states. It was funded out of researchers' pockets and published online Tuesday in the journal Environmental Science and Technology.

The average reading in the study was 10.5 parts per billion, less than half of the EPA's newly established safe exposure level of 24.5 parts per billion in drinking water.

The highest reading among the mothers in the Tech study was 92 parts per billion. In dairy milk, all but one of 47 samples had detectable levels of the chemical. No samples were above 11 parts per billion.

Pernendu Dasgupta, a Tech chemistry professor who led the study, said it "raises more questions than answers" but hopes it helps people become more aware.
http://apnews.excite.com/article/20050224/D88F0EDO0.html



in political asylum
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