The Euro dropped again... - Page 4 - Mercedes-Benz Forum

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
post #31 of 38 (permalink) Old 02-08-2005, 06:17 PM
BenzWorld Elite
 
FeelTheLove's Avatar
 
Date registered: Sep 2004
Vehicle: 83 Astral Silver 280 SL
Location: Planet Houston
Posts: 28,829
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Quoted: 8 Post(s)
RE: The Euro dropped again...

No, the upside is a creation of a new industry. The main reason for the failure of Bush economics is its idealogical opposition to allowing the government to act as an active agent in the rise of new technologies, especially in the energy arena. That is the number one reason the stock market has been essentially stuck in the mud since the day he took office. In a nutshell, his policies just tel the financial community to expect more of the same - a one tool toolbox filled with tax cuts that only make the deficit worse, and a hands off approach to government sponsorship of technological initiatives. As a consequence, venture capital is flowing to those countries where the governments are more actively sponsoring huge leaps in technology.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
FeelTheLove is offline  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
post #32 of 38 (permalink) Old 02-08-2005, 06:35 PM Thread Starter
BenzWorld Elite
 
Date registered: Sep 2004
Vehicle: 95 E300
Location: Inside my head
Posts: 36,850
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Quoted: 392 Post(s)
(Thread Starter)
RE: The Euro dropped again...

If failure there is, it is in not allowing free enterprise and free trade to operate freely.

There's enough slop in economic predictors that I fail to see any compelling reason to believe your doom and gloom is any more or less reliable than the admistration's everything is coming-up roses. With absolute certainty of economic law I will predict this: Both you and they are right and wrong about various things. I just can't be specific yet as to which.
Botnst is offline  
post #33 of 38 (permalink) Old 02-08-2005, 07:30 PM
BenzWorld Elite
 
FeelTheLove's Avatar
 
Date registered: Sep 2004
Vehicle: 83 Astral Silver 280 SL
Location: Planet Houston
Posts: 28,829
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Quoted: 8 Post(s)
RE: The Euro dropped again...

I don't deal in doom and gloom when it comes to money - I deal in facts. Look again at the chart. Now look at the date at which the Euro began to climb. One finds an unmistakable correlation to the mega-deficit producing tax cuts and the fall in the value of the dollar, the collapse of the high paying job market, and the stagnantion in the stock market.

Your faith in free markets simply do not hold up to history. Unbridled, unregulated free markets was essentially the economic state of this country in the 1920s, and it lead to disaster. Unbridled capitalism and unbridled communism have lead to the same places throughout history, whether one is talking stocks, economies or tulips. As we dismantle social democracy in the US, we will simply learn the old lessons once again.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
FeelTheLove is offline  
post #34 of 38 (permalink) Old 02-08-2005, 07:36 PM
BenzWorld Member
 
Date registered: Jan 2005
Posts: 350
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
RE: The Euro dropped again...

Quote:
Botnst - 2/8/2005 7:01 PM

Quote:
Joe Bauers - 2/8/2005 5:37 PM

Posted by Botnst: Wow. It's that important, huh? More important than anything else. Amazing insight. Where could that possibly lead us?

----------------------------------------------------

War in Iraq.

Joe B.
Never one to miss an opportunity to stumble over the obvious.
To most of the supporters of the war, it is not obvious. They think it was fought because of WMD, or because of an Al Quaeda/Saddam link, or because of the great need to, suddenly, liberate Iraq and turn it into a democracy.

Joe B.
Joe Bauers is offline  
post #35 of 38 (permalink) Old 02-08-2005, 07:37 PM
BenzWorld Member
 
Date registered: Jan 2005
Posts: 350
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
RE: The Euro dropped again...

Quote:
Botnst - 2/8/2005 7:01 PM

Quote:
Joe Bauers - 2/8/2005 5:37 PM

Posted by Botnst: Wow. It's that important, huh? More important than anything else. Amazing insight. Where could that possibly lead us?

----------------------------------------------------

War in Iraq.

Joe B.
Never one to miss an opportunity to stumble over the obvious.
To most of the supporters of the war, it is not obvious. They think it was fought because of WMD, or because of an Al Quaeda/Saddam link, or because of the great need to, suddenly, liberate Iraq and turn it into a democracy.

Joe B.
Joe Bauers is offline  
post #36 of 38 (permalink) Old 02-08-2005, 07:37 PM Thread Starter
BenzWorld Elite
 
Date registered: Sep 2004
Vehicle: 95 E300
Location: Inside my head
Posts: 36,850
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Quoted: 392 Post(s)
(Thread Starter)
RE: The Euro dropped again...

Have it your way, Kirk. I'm not interested in a wee-wee contest.

Your's is a good lower-boundary estimate. The administration's is a rosy upper boundary. I'm betting somewhere in between.

As in everything else, time will tell.
Botnst is offline  
post #37 of 38 (permalink) Old 02-08-2005, 08:10 PM
BenzWorld Elite
 
FeelTheLove's Avatar
 
Date registered: Sep 2004
Vehicle: 83 Astral Silver 280 SL
Location: Planet Houston
Posts: 28,829
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Quoted: 8 Post(s)
RE: The Euro dropped again...

I am simply saying that as long as the tax policies of this adminstration stay in place, the economy will remain stagnant due to Bush's tax policies. If the current Congress makes Bush's tax cuts permanent the international financial community is going to go ape shit. We have created 2.3 trillion dollars of public debt, a staggering sum, over the life of these tax cuts, with no perceptable economic benefit. The current budget is truly frightening, with a deficit of 400 billion, a figure that always turns out to be off by tens of billions, and this time Bush and Co are also cooking the books by not adding the cost of the Iraq War, another 200 billion, to the deficit, and if his Social Security reforms pass, the costs of it will add another $300 billion, making the terrifying prospect that the USA will run a ONE TRILLION DOLLAR deficit a reality. Like the fools who ran this country in the 1920's, we are moving into uncharted economic waters.


Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
FeelTheLove is offline  
post #38 of 38 (permalink) Old 02-08-2005, 08:19 PM
BenzWorld Elite
 
tcp_ML500's Avatar
 
Date registered: Aug 2002
Vehicle: C 111 Nardo
Location: Exiled
Posts: 9,402
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Quoted: 86 Post(s)
RE: If it were that simple then everybody would always make money predicting these things.

Quote:
Botnst - 2/8/2005 6:15 PM

Returning to money.

If interest rates decline the US treasury bills are not as interesting to anybody. However, the internal effect of lower rates is that people pay less to borrow for goods and services internally. For example, I refinanced my mortgage from 7.5% to about 5%. This lowered my monthly payment by a considerable amount and only lengthened the loan by 7 years (15 yr note). I use the difference to increase savings to my 401K (that 'over-fifty' thing) and it added to my whoopee money. If I multiply that saving by say, a million homeowners (I have no idea how many people of sound financial condition refinanced, so a million sounds nice). That could easily lead to hundreds of millions/month added to the economy that was paid to mortgage holders.

I can see that if mortgage holders are foreigners, they'd be pissed and want to take their money elsewhere. But is the loss of foreign investment less than, exactly equal to, or greater than the savings to the homeowner? Is the increased spending by the homeowner going to increase tax reveniues? Will Dudley Doright save Nell?

It looks to me like each of these factors can flow a minimum of two directions. As Mr Droogie pointed out increasing the exchange to three systems becomes horribly complex. I'm reminded somewhat of Newton's problem with gravity.

Summarizing, I think that it is way too simplistic to look at a few indicators on a given day (or even over a few years!) and devise a reliable predictor. If it were that simple then everybody would always make money predicting these things. I have a feeling that's not the case.

B
In the financial realm, it does not necessarily matter to be right.

There is no one complete and accurate model to describe the markets, but only theories. What matters is that the largest number subscribe to a theory, and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Come up with a good theory, get enough people to believe in its virtues, you become a market maker, make beaucoup, beaucoup, be [:)], or [:(]

“I feel so miserable without you; it’s almost like having you here.”
-- Stephen Bishop
tcp_ML500 is offline  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
Reply

  Mercedes-Benz Forum > General Mercedes-Benz Forums > Off-Topic

Quick Reply
Message:
Options

Register Now



In order to be able to post messages on the Mercedes-Benz Forum forums, you must first register.
Please enter your desired user name, your email address and other required details in the form below.

User Name:
Password
Please enter a password for your user account. Note that passwords are case-sensitive.

Password:


Confirm Password:
Email Address
Please enter a valid email address for yourself.

Email Address:
OR

Log-in











  • Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
     
    Thread Tools
    Show Printable Version Show Printable Version
    Email this Page Email this Page
    Display Modes
    Linear Mode Linear Mode



    Posting Rules  
    You may post new threads
    You may post replies
    You may not post attachments
    You may not edit your posts

    BB code is On
    Smilies are On
    [IMG] code is On
    HTML code is Off
    Trackbacks are On
    Pingbacks are On
    Refbacks are On

     

    Title goes here

    close
    video goes here
    description goes here. Read Full Story
    For the best viewing experience please update your browser to Google Chrome