If Kerry wins - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #1 of 19 (permalink) Old 10-29-2004, 09:49 AM Thread Starter
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If Kerry wins

here you go:

N. Swartz, Ph. D. Economics, Oregon State University

テつ*If Kerry wins, here is what I think we could expect - in chronological order:

テつ*1. A Nixon-like pull out from Iraq by June 2005. This is the key to the event list.
2. A collapse of the middle eastern political situation by the end of 2005. The US and UN do not respond.

3. A complete takeover of Iraq, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Afghanistan by the Islamic Fascists in 2006. The US and UN do not respond.

4. The complete takeover of the middle eastern oil production system by Islamic Fascists in 2006. The US and UN do not respond.

5. A nearly full reduction of oil production in the middle east will drive world oil prices over $150/barrel in 2006. Gas prices rise to $4-6/gallon with spikes at $10/gallon. Airlines in the US fail. There are massive business failures. US goes into a deep depression with 50% unemployment.

6. Iraq, Iran, Jordan, Syria and others attack Israel in 2007. Nuclear exchange is likely. US does not and can no longer respond.

7. Muslims invade Israel and the world witnesses another holocaust. The UN does not respond.

8. The global economy goes into a depression with 60% unemployment in 2007.

9. China emerges as the dominant country in 2010.

テつ*I am sure many will not believe this is likely or possible. But then, the same mentality existed when Poland was invaded.

テつ*N. Swartz, Ph. D. Economics, Oregon State University

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post #2 of 19 (permalink) Old 10-29-2004, 09:51 AM
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RE: If Kerry wins

Wow -- a swami! I think his turban short-circuited.

"If spending money you don't have is the height of stupidity, borrowing money to give it away is the height of insanity." -- anon
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post #3 of 19 (permalink) Old 10-29-2004, 09:56 AM
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RE: If Kerry wins

Nice, but there is no Swartz in the economics department at OSU

http://oregonstate.edu/dept/econ/people/index.php

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post #4 of 19 (permalink) Old 10-29-2004, 09:57 AM
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RE: If Kerry wins

While I doubt the scenario presented will happen, I do think we need to stop giving these groups money for oil. We need to barter with them, goods for oil. We give them food and medicines, they give us oil. When the oil stops, the food and medicine stop. Our economy may be threatened, but they starve to death. In no way shape or form should we be educating their people in the technologies of tomorrow, or even the manufacturing, farming or other "technologies" of yesterday.

Trading in currency with someone who has more money than they know what to do with (so they fund terror, apparently) puts you in a bad negotiating position. We need to trade with them for something as dear to them as oil is to us. Let them fund their own education system to learn science and engineering. That will end this crap. Jim
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post #5 of 19 (permalink) Old 10-29-2004, 10:15 AM
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RE: If Kerry wins

Actually, you have it backwards. If Bush wins, and "stays the course". Our economy will not be able to sustain the increased debt. Oil will change from being priced in dollars to being priced in Euro's. Therefore, the value of the dollar will drop dramatically. Our economy will begin to collapse. China WILL become the new economic power. Our country's collapse will be similar to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

I could go on and on. We are already headed in this direction. RIGHT NOW our country is BARELY able to sustain our rising debt; the growing trade deficit; the weakening dollar; etc. Your scenario is ridiculous. I'm glad we ousted Saddam, but let me tell you this: The Middle East was much MORE stable when he was in control then it IS now, or that it will be with a new Iraqi government. Ronald Reagan knew this to be true during the Iraq/Iran war. Bush Sr. new this to be true as well...........
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post #6 of 19 (permalink) Old 10-29-2004, 10:15 AM
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RE: If Kerry wins

...I think his prognostic gland needs massaging.
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post #7 of 19 (permalink) Old 10-29-2004, 12:05 PM Thread Starter
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RE: If Kerry wins

I could not agree more with this statement

The Middle East was much MORE stable when he was in control then it IS now, or that it will be with a new Iraqi government.

I received this in an email and figured I would pass it on. Like most stuff you read in email take it with a grain of salt.

China may eventually overtake the US in industry but at what cost? I have some friends that went over their with a tour group and he said the atmosphere is TERRIBLE because of the pollution.
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post #8 of 19 (permalink) Old 10-29-2004, 12:09 PM
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RE: If Kerry wins

Quote:
engatwork - 10/29/2004 11:05 AM

I could not agree more with this statement
You know, you keep posting stuff like this, and people will start referring to you as "riff-raff". [:D]

"If spending money you don't have is the height of stupidity, borrowing money to give it away is the height of insanity." -- anon
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post #9 of 19 (permalink) Old 10-29-2004, 12:16 PM
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RE: If Kerry wins

[QUOTE]engatwork - 10/29/2004 2:05 PM



I received this in an email and figured I would pass it on. Like most stuff you read in email take it with a grain of salt.

QUOTE]

But that's the problem. This stuff gets passed around as a factual quote from emails and websites without any regard to it's authenticity.

As I posted earlier there is no Dr. Swartz at the OSU Econ dept. There is no citing authority from where this quote comes from. Shoot, there may not even be a Dr. Swartz, a google search didn't turn him up.

So yes, we should take things you recieve in your email with a grain of salt. And you should disclose from where you recieved this instead of just posting it as fact.

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post #10 of 19 (permalink) Old 10-29-2004, 12:20 PM
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RE: If Kerry wins

Quote:
engatwork - 10/29/2004 2:05 PM
China may eventually overtake the US in industry but at what cost? I have some friends that went over their with a tour group and he said the atmosphere is TERRIBLE because of the pollution.
bingo.

China, internet creeping in, is not too far away from embracing Hong Kong capitalism. What do you think, even if it takes 10 years??? If the Chinese start to feel entitled to the lifestyle of even modest middle class americans, the volume of resource consumption will be absolutely incredible. And, outnumbering us by a full billion (and only recently removed from kool-aid drinking nationalism), the'll get whatever they want, no matter where it is in the world... using whatever means neccessary.


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