Date registered: Sep 2004
Vehicle: 83 Astral Silver 280 SL
Location: Planet Houston
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Quoted: 7 Post(s)
RE: one week out
The election is unpredictable. The wild card is the voters between 18-24. They are currently undersampled for two reasons 1) Most models discount them as "likely voters" and 2) The vast majority have cell phones and no land line phones, and the cell phones are either unlisted or have caller id that discourages the user from answering, and if s/he does answer s/he may not want to burn cell phone time on a poll. If you sample this demographic using shoe leather, they are 70/30 in favor of Kerry. So bottom line, if they turn out heavily, (which they usually don't) there may be an unexpected Kerry electoral landslide, with dem gains in Congress. If they don't Bush should win comfortably, and the Congress will stay repub.
The big fluke is Florida. I think Kerry may take the state because black voters in that state are 1) Extremely pissed off over the criminal actions of Katherine Harris and Jeb Bush that denied a lot of them the vote in 2000 and 2) Because there are so many damn lawyers in the state making sure it doesn't happen again. Again, this will screw the pollster's "likely voter" model.
If that happens and Kerry wins Ohio, then Bush is finished. If that happens and Bush takes Ohio, most models show a 269 to 269 tie. Who the hell knows what is going to happen after that.
The weird thing right now is that even tho Bush is showing some gains in the swing states, all of a sudden some of his solid smaller states are starting to swing the other way. Some pollers are now calling Colorado for Kerry, and think Arkansas may be next. Arizona and Nevada are also shaky for Bush. If that represents some kind of unrecognized ground swell, Bush may be in trouble.
Statiscally its a crap shoot. However, the news is not going Bush's way - Kerry is getting the October surprise = the weapons scandal and now Allawi, who two weeks ago Bush was lambasting Kerry for Kerry's criticism of him, is now critisizing Bush and laying the blame for the massacre of those 50 iraqi recruits (which BTW has killed the recruiting drive for Iraqi security forces) on Bush himself for the same reason everyone else does - there are not enough US troops in Iraq to do the job of securing the place. On tonights news it was reported that the 101st Airborne took a look at the munitions dump and then high-tailed it out of there, and the place remained unguarded for TWO MONTHS. Turns out there were hundreds of these sites left unguarded. The Bush admin is now saying. "well, we did not have enough troops to guard them all" after spending the entire year telling the American public that there was always sufficient troops. So the question is, how much more Orwellian double speak can the Bush supporters stand?
To make matters worse, someone in Bush's administration does not like him. There have been two serious leaks - on this morning exposing the amount of money Bush needs for Iraq, a piece of information he has been trying to keep secret, that totals another 80 billion dollars, and another leaked late today that will be in tomorrows news and is even more damaging, that Bush intends to send another 18,000 troops to Iraq, and he we do this by extending the tours of the guys there once again and by activating whatever guard units are left, another piece of info he was trying to keep secret.