MS Fowler - 10/21/2004 9:31 PM
KV, we agree about something!
I could see this election as anything from a six month drawn out battle thru the courts to a 60/40 landslide for either candidate.
In any event, you won't hear me carping about the electoral college denying the will of the people. The electoral college IS the law of the land---at least until some activist court changes the rules.
If Bush wins the popular vote and loses the electoral, I will not begin a petition drive to unseat Kerry, but I still will support any movement to make the Electoral College proportional, or to ban it.
The whole thing is a circus, and the media dishonesty in reporting poll numbers is incredible. All these polls are with the margin of error, and they are reporting the behavior of random numbers as big up or down movements in the polls, and claiming one guy or another is ahead. If they were honest, they would tell the voters these polls are all saying the same thing - too close to call.
They did the exact same thing last time, and were claiming Bush the winner then as well, and Gore ended up beating him in the popular vote. Gallup, ABC, Newsweek, all the news networks, were off by a mile in 2000. Zogby, for the second election in a row, predicted Gore would win the national contest and only missed the actual totals within a point. Keep your eye on that poll. Right now he says it is a 47/47 tie. He says it has been that way for weeks, and he thinks 6% of the electorate is so torn by the decision he calls the "Wizard of Oz Choice" they will not make up their mind until Nov 2. He says the voters have a choice between Tin Man Kerry, who has a brain but no heart, and Scarecrow Bush, a real nice fellow, but no brain.
The most outrageous thing is the media playing funny with the numbers. they want to play a see-saw effect, so evryone thinks the race is an exciting death to the finish, and we will all buy the media's crap as our candidate rises and falls. I spit on them for their dishonesty. Note this article:
CNN continued selective poll citing
On the October 21 edition of CNN's Inside Politics, host Judy Woodruff again selectively cited presidential polls that showed President George W. Bush leading the race for the White House. Woodruff reported the results of state polls from New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Michigan to suggest a significant lead for Bush in all three states -- but other equally recent polls show better results for Senator John Kerry, including, in some cases, a lead.
Woodruff noted that a Mason-Dixon Polling and Research poll conducted October 15-18 shows Bush with a 3% lead in New Hampshire. But Woodruff neglected to mention other recent New Hampshire poll results: a Rasmussen Reports survey completed October 18 shows Kerry two points ahead of Bush, and an American Research Group poll conducted October 16-18 shows Bush leading in New Hampshire by one percentage point.
Woodruff reported the CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted October 16-19, that gives Bush a six-point lead in Wisconsin. But she did not mention an American Research Group poll conducted October 16-19 that showed the race as even, or a poll conducted by the University of Minnesota's Humphrey Institute October 14-19 that put Bush's lead at one percentage point.
Woodruff noted that, according to a Detroit News poll conducted October 18-19, Bush has a four-point lead in Michigan. But she did not report Kerry's three-point lead in a Rasmussen poll concluded on October 19 or his seven-point lead in a Zogby poll completed on October 19; both these polls are available on the presidential election tracking website Electoral Vote Predictor 2004.
As Media Matters for America has noted, Woodruff selectively cited national polls on October 18 in order to bolster her assertion that "the polls seem to be moving in President Bush's favor." In recent days, CNN has repeatedly favored Bush by excluding polls favorable to Kerry.