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post #11 of 21 (permalink) Old 10-19-2004, 11:25 AM
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RE: Colorado and the electoral college

Quote:
This whole country could come unraveled.
...is that necessarily a bad thing? I think we've become far too mired in static thinking and decadence as it is--time for a good revolution to mix it up a bit.

“The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is its natural manure.� ---Thomas Jefferson
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post #12 of 21 (permalink) Old 10-19-2004, 11:31 AM
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RE: Colorado and the electoral college

Quote:
Zeitgeist - 10/19/2004 11:25 AM

Quote:
This whole country could come unraveled.
...is that necessarily a bad thing? I think we've become far too mired in static thinking and decadence as it is--time for a good revolution to mix it up a bit.

“The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is its natural manure.� ---Thomas Jefferson
Now that truly is "big picture" thinking. You could be right.

OBK #35

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post #13 of 21 (permalink) Old 10-19-2004, 11:55 AM
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RE: Colorado and the electoral college

I'm all for it. If we take this discussion any further, we are going to have a "Magic Lantern" shined on us. See you guys at Gitmo.

http://www.newsfactor.com/perl/story/15301.html
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post #14 of 21 (permalink) Old 10-19-2004, 12:52 PM
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RE: Colorado and the electoral college

For those of you tracking the polls, both the www.electoral-vote.com website I have mentioned and the traipas site Botnst liked, after a couple of weeks of not agreeing on he totals, are starting to come into compliance with each other. Both are now calling Florida for Kerry, and both are now predicting Kerry currently has about 275 electoral votes.

http://www.tripias.com/state/

http://www.electoral-vote.com
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post #15 of 21 (permalink) Old 10-19-2004, 01:04 PM
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RE: Colorado and the electoral college

Barring any surprises, the election seems to be coming down to FL, OH, and PA. The candidate that takes 2 of those 3 should prevail.

"If spending money you don't have is the height of stupidity, borrowing money to give it away is the height of insanity." -- anon
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post #16 of 21 (permalink) Old 10-19-2004, 01:19 PM
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RE: Colorado and the electoral college

I just hope Zogby pulls off a surprise. He is showing a Kerry landslide, and he gives a darn good reason -"Likely voter" polls are skewed by past elections, where Republican turnout was always higher then Democratice, therefore the "Likely Voter" is a Republican. Zogby asserts that that is just not true this election, and if you poll assuming that a Republican is as likely as a democrat to turnout this time, then Kerry should wallop Bush. I think he is right , because Gallup, which has the heaviest over-weight to the Republicans, looks so out of whack to the rest of them in predicting a big Bush win. Myself, I know Dems who haven't voted in the last three elections who are dying to get into that old booth, even here in Texas.
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post #17 of 21 (permalink) Old 10-19-2004, 04:35 PM
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RE: Colorado and the electoral college

Here's another site that I like for its analysis. It should warm the Dems hearts.

http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html
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post #18 of 21 (permalink) Old 10-19-2004, 05:49 PM
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RE: Colorado and the electoral college

Thats not far from Zogby. He thinks the final outcome will be 300 electoral votes for Kerry, that site shows 298.

For even more indications this happening, look at this Fox article with the misleading headline "Bush Lead Widens".

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,135932,00.html

If you read the article they are saying the same thing - Bush is wracking up huge majorities in the Red states, but he is losing by a squeaker in just about all the swing states. Quote from the article:


.... "One odd factor is that much of the lead is concentrated in the so-called 'red states,' which were pretty much conceded to Bush at the beginning. Thus his national lead does not reflect a big lead in the battleground states that will decide the election. We may well be facing a situation, as we did in 2000, where the popular vote and the electoral vote produce different results.".......




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post #19 of 21 (permalink) Old 10-19-2004, 08:09 PM
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RE: Colorado and the electoral college

So we could run an office pool by date. Winner buys the correct day that the elected winner is finally confirmed - not the confirmed by the senate date. Maximum five days at $whatever you all think. Loosers agree to mail winner a check. First PM to me picks their days and the ammount per day. I'll then post a thread = no date earlier than Nov. 8th - first come first serve. The thread will be titled "Bend over"
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post #20 of 21 (permalink) Old 10-19-2004, 09:05 PM
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RE: Colorado and the electoral college

Interesting analysis by Mark Sheilds also suggest Bush's poll numbers are a mirage:

Ignore the point spread
Forget the point spread. Look at point totals in the major polls.
Mark Shields
Monday, October 11, 2004 Posted: 12:18 PM EDT (1618 GMT)

WASHINGTON (Creators Syndicate) -- If anyone tells you that the latest authoritative national poll shows President George W. Bush either running 4 percentage points ahead of or 2 points behind Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kerry, pay him no attention. Ignore the messenger completely.

That is the advice of respected analyst and Democratic pollster Guy Molyneux, who argues that the point-spread between any incumbent president and his challenger is meaningless. What does matter in pre-election polls, he insists, is the percentage of the vote the incumbent president is receiving.

With refreshing directness, Molyneux told me in an interview that we in the political press have it backward whenever we report that the president's lead over Kerry is either expanding or disappearing. He invoked, what he termed in a piece he wrote for American Prospect Online, "the incumbent 50-percent rule."

History shows that the percentage of the vote that an incumbent president gets in the major polls before Election Day is an accurate predictor of the percentage of the vote the incumbent will win on Election Day. Thus, in Molyneux's judgment, the "incumbent who fails to poll above 50 percent is in grave danger of losing his job."

In the four most recent elections where an incumbent president sought re-election -- Bill Clinton in 1996, George H.W. Bush in 1992, Ronald Reagan in 1984 and Jimmy Carter in 1980 -- in the three major polls of the broadcast networks and their newspaper partners, the incumbent won the same percentage of the actual vote (or less) as he had received in the polls in three elections. Only Ronald Reagan, who had polled 58 percent of the vote and then actually won 59 percent of the vote, exceeded the average of the three network surveys.

The numbers of the challengers -- a list that includes third party candidate Ross Perot twice -- run better on Election Day than they do in the pre-election measures of public opinion. The average increase on Election Day in the actual vote for a challenger to a president is 4 percentage points.

To avoid making the 2004 election a referendum on Bush's stewardship at a time when a significant majority of voters have said they believe the direction of the country is seriously "off on the wrong track," the president's campaign has been devoted almost exclusively to focusing the electorate's attention on the alleged defects, moral and political, of Sen. Kerry.

Here is the president's case: "Things have never been worse in the United States, and I'm the only guy who can get us out of the mess we're in."

But eventually, as Carter in 1980 and the first Bush in 1992 discovered to their regret, when an incumbent president seeks re-election, the voters make that election a referendum on the incumbent's record and first decide whether the incumbent deserves a second term.

History tells us that undecided voters break overwhelmingly on Election Day in favor of the presidential challenger -- unless the incumbent president's campaign has been able through negative attacks to "disqualify" the challenger.

One analyst has concluded that since 1976, 86 percent of undecided voters have voted for the challenger candidates.

Molyneux believes that "voters think that President Bush is so preoccupied with the war on terrorism and bringing democracy to the Middle East that his re-election will mean four more years of very little or no attention to their problems of jobs and health-care."

What do voters want in their president? According to Molyneux, "They want a president who can walk and chew gum at the same time," both here at home and overseas.

So forget the point spread. Look instead at the incumbent candidate's point total in the major polls. Unless the polls begin to give the incumbent more than 50 percent of the vote, then the result on November 2 could well be the second one-term Bush presidency in a dozen years.

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