Date registered: Sep 2004
Vehicle: 83 Astral Silver 280 SL
Location: Planet Houston
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Quoted: 7 Post(s)
RE: America's 50/50 stance
Why? There is nothing specific in there on SV's methods. These guys are just taking an average of leading polls. They aren't the only website doing it. I actually find http://www.electoral-vote.com much more useful. If you check that one, look at the swing states, take ohio for example:
Note the graphical difference between the older polling outfits and SV. Rasmussen, who is getting a lot of criticizm on his polling methods as being Republican - weighted, seems to be closer to SV, which means either those two outfits know something the older outfits don't know, or it is merely confirming that SV is Republican weighted.
so you have two stories - either the classic X position shift shown by the older organizations points to a Kerry landslide, or the newer outfits, who are simply saying Bush has maintained the same lead all along, are right. Take your pick. Zogby and American Research seem to be telling the story of the election - you can match the ups and downs to conventions, etc. The newer outfits seem to be telling a different story, that Bush has been leading all along. I just don't see that.
Somewhere we have commonalities in statistical methods that has resulted in the creation of two separate mathematical models for the election. Because of this failure for these models to agree, you end up with a choice of which electoral map to believe once you separate the two models.