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post #11 of 21 (permalink) Old 10-14-2004, 02:17 PM
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RE: America's 50/50 stance

Generating just using SV and Rasmussen, I get a Bush landslide:

http://www.tripias.com/state/index.html?NaderToggle=Doesn%27t_Matter&SampleTogg le=Doesn%27t_Matter&StartDateMonth=01&StartDateDay =01&EndDateMonth=10&EndDateDay=14&2000_Election_Re sults=1&ABC_News=1&American_Research_Group=1&Arizo na_Republic=1&Arizona_State_University=1&Arkansas_ State_University=1&Badger=1&Basswood_Research=1&Be cker_Institute=1&Behavior_Research_Center=1&Belden %2C_Russonello_%26_Stewart=1&Bennett%2C_Petts_%26_ Blum=1&Bluegrass=1&Brown_University=1&Capital_Surv ey=1&Chicago_Tribune=1&Ciruli_Associates=1&Columbu s_Dispatch=1&Consumer_Logic=1&Critical_Insights=1& Dallas_News=1&Davis%2C_Hibbitts%2C_%26_Midghall=1& Des_Moines_Register=1&Deseret_News=1&Dittman_Resea rch=1&Elway=1&EPIC%2FMRA=1&FD_PublicMind=1&Field_P oll=1&Fox_News=1&Franklin_%26_Marshall_College=1&F ranklin_Pierce_College=1&Free_Press=1&Gallup=1&Glo bal_Strategies_Group=1&Gonzalez_Research=1&Hamilto n_Beattie=1&Harris-Deville=1&Harstad_Strategic_Research=1&Hart_Resear ch=1&IMA%2FBellwether_Research=1&Indianapolis_Star =1&Insider_Advantage=1&Ipsos=1&KAET-TV=1&KELOLAND=1&Keystone=1&Lake_Snell_Perry_%26_As sociates=1&Los_Angeles_Times=1&Mansfield_Universit y=1&Marist=1&Market_Research_Informatics=1&Marketi ng_Research_Institute=1&Mason-Dixon=1&Merrimack_College=1&Miami_Herald=1&Middle_ Tennessee_State_Univ.=1&Mississippi_State_Universi ty=1&Mitchell_Research=1&Mobile_Register=1&Moore_R esearch=1&MRG=1&Muhlenberg_College=1&Multi-Quest=1&Northern_Arizona_University=1&Opinion_Rese arch_Associates=1&Pew_Charitable_Trusts=1&Public_P olicy_Institute_of_CA=1&Quinnipiac=1&Research_2000 =1&Research_and_Polling_Inc.=1&Riley_Research=1&Ro cky_Mountain_News=1&San_Jose_State_University=1&Se lzer_and_Company=1&Siena_Research_Institute=1&SMS_ Research=1&St._Norbert_College=1&St._Paul_Pioneer_ Press=1&Star_Ledger=1&Star-Tribune=1&Strategic_Marketing_Services=1&Suffolk_U niversity=1&Survey_USA=1&Tampa_Tribune=1&Temple_Un iversity=1&The_Oklahoman=1&The_Oregonian=1&Wilson_ Research_Strategies=1&Zogby_Interactive=1
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post #12 of 21 (permalink) Old 10-14-2004, 02:21 PM
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RE: America's 50/50 stance

So if I average 30 polls, I get a Kerry win, I average two and I get a whole different story, Since the laws of stats generally say I will get a better smoothing affect from the 30 poll-average vs the 2 poll, I can only conclude the numbers are pointing to a Kerry win, and that these two polls are so skewed they can pull a 30 poll-average to say something totally different.
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post #13 of 21 (permalink) Old 10-14-2004, 02:23 PM
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RE: America's 50/50 stance

Quote:
kvining - 10/14/2004 4:09 PM

I guess I don't know what you are expecting I read. If I use their handy "exclude pollsters" feature, I get confirmation of what I am saying:

http://www.tripias.com/state/index.html?NaderToggle=Doesn%27t_Matter&SampleTogg le=Doesn%27t_Matter&StartDateMonth=01&StartDateDay =01&EndDateMonth=10&EndDateDay=14&Rasmussen=1&Stra tegic_Vision=1

with Rasmussen and SV removed.
Exactly that. You map the polls yourself (http://www.tripias.com/state/custom.html).

They provide an example and you do your own. Also, the methods section offers several useful and important caveats, some of which you did mention. There are otehrs that you may wish to incorporate in your exploration of the data.
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post #14 of 21 (permalink) Old 10-14-2004, 02:24 PM
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RE: America's 50/50 stance

Folks interesting in teh nuts-n-bolts of resampling statistics, the most common paradigm of polling methodologies, here's a commercial site and workshop.

Have you thought about getting acquainted with R?

R, the open source cousin of the powerful S-PLUS statistics package and
earlier S language, is growing rapidly in popularity. To quote from the
main R web site (http://www.r-project.org/), R is a "fully planned and
coherent system, rather than an incremental accretion of very specific and
inflexible tools, as is frequently the case with other data analysis
software." R is freely available at no charge.

Starting November 12, statistics.com will offer a 3-week "Introduction to
R" course online at statistics.com. It will cover downloading and
installing R, data handling, drawing samples, the bootstrap, looping,
downloading and using R libraries from other sources, building your own
functions, more. As with all statistics.com courses, there are no set
times when you must be online, and you get regular access to a leading
expert via a private discussion board. If you have the time, you can go
for deep and intensive engagement. If casual lurking is more your style,
you can do that too.

The instructor is Dr. Phillip Good, author of "Introduction to Statistics
via Resampling Methods and R," (forthcoming from Wiley in 2005), and
numerous other statistics texts.

Registration and details:
http://www.statistics.com/content/courses/R/index.html

Peter Bruce
pbruce@resample.com
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post #15 of 21 (permalink) Old 10-14-2004, 02:35 PM
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RE: America's 50/50 stance

No thanks, I cook all mine from scratch.
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post #16 of 21 (permalink) Old 10-14-2004, 02:35 PM Thread Starter
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RE: America's 50/50 stance

Wow, there's enough links here to play a round of golf on!! I was kinda hoping someone had an original thought that would pretty much cut through the confusion, but I guess that won't happen here. You people must not have real jobs to have this much free time to research crap like this.

"The above post does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Cap'n Carageous nor this forum. It may be presented as an attempt at humor or as a quote or paraphrase from another author. Any feelings hurt by this post are the responsibility of the reader. No animals were harmed in the making of this post." Member F.D.I.C. Tax tag and title extra.
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post #17 of 21 (permalink) Old 10-14-2004, 02:39 PM
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RE: America's 50/50 stance

Here's an original thought.

Being divided is good. That means everything won't go to the shitter if we're wrong. Nations that are united rise together, and fall together. See Nazi Germany, Soviet Union, etc etc.
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post #18 of 21 (permalink) Old 10-14-2004, 03:05 PM
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RE: America's 50/50 stance

Coke!





No, wait. Pepsi!

OBK #35

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post #19 of 21 (permalink) Old 10-14-2004, 04:06 PM Thread Starter
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RE: America's 50/50 stance

I know a man who has the engine from a 1969 Boss 302 Mustang. A friend of his has the body of the car. Neither one will let the other have his part because they each want the entire car. Either that or neither wants the OTHER to have it. Either way a highly collectible car sits waiting for one of them to die.

Greed, insecurity, what causes this??

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post #20 of 21 (permalink) Old 10-14-2004, 04:11 PM
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RE: America's 50/50 stance

it's the joneses game



in political asylum
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