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post #21 of 39 (permalink) Old 10-13-2004, 02:17 PM
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RE: Documents indicate Iraqi threat

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Botnst - 10/13/2004 2:34 PM

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mzsmbs - 10/13/2004 12:37 PM

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Botnst - 10/13/2004 11:25 AM

The difference between the interpretations depends an awful lot on how one views a perceived threat and how one responds to it than it does on the literal interpretation.
isn't that like putting words in someone else's mouth?

one has to take it at face value... i believe...

hell the whole world is after US now anyway... and you were worried about silly Saddam...[:D][:D]
It could be putting words in somebody else's mouth--especially if incorrectly inferred. That would probably be the worst-case interpretation.

But we are asked to use our judgement every day when presented with evidence for all manner of conjectures. A beer cap in your son's car, a crack pipe in your employee's desk drawer, a casual but perhaps lingering glance from an attractive woman. How we judge these various forms of evidence depends almost entirely on what we have learned from previous experiences.

So the way we assemble the various evidentiary facts to create a satisfactory model of the world in which the facts fit best is highly subjective. This is probably the origin of the majority of our various disparate conclusions concerning the Saddam threat. Gievn all the various lines of evidence, much of it highly ambiguous, could hardly lead us all to the same conclusions. Does that mean one or more of us are idiots or stupid? I don't think so. I think reasonable people can disagree without inferring cognitive disfunction.
Too bad our mistake-proof infallible God-President couldn't have applied that to Hans Blix and his UN Weapons Reports. Over 15,000 mothers would have their children back.
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post #22 of 39 (permalink) Old 10-13-2004, 02:36 PM
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RE: Documents indicate Iraqi threat

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Botnst - 10/13/2004 11:34 AM

So the way we assemble the various evidentiary facts to create a satisfactory model of the world in which the facts fit best is highly subjective. This is probably the origin of the majority of our various disparate conclusions concerning the Saddam threat. Gievn all the various lines of evidence, much of it highly ambiguous, could hardly lead us all to the same conclusions.
The conclusion many of us have drawn is simply this: evidence which is "highly ambiguous" is insufficient to warrant an invasion and occupation of a sovereign nation. I find it remarkable that some would disagree with that conclusion.

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post #23 of 39 (permalink) Old 10-13-2004, 04:08 PM Thread Starter
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RE: Documents indicate Iraqi threat

The conclusion that many of us have reached is that its better to take-out a malignant, murderous BMF when he's weak and planning threats rather than wait until he is strong and an actual.

This is why its called, "pre-emption" rather than "reaction".

I'd rather pre-empt and be thought beligerent than react after 3,000 innocent Americans die from lack of pre-emption.

BTW, anybody notice than millions of Afghans voted for the first time in their history? There are some people who think that tribal people cannot learn democracy in a single step. hard to imagine being such a bigot as to think people cannot learn democracy.
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post #24 of 39 (permalink) Old 10-13-2004, 04:43 PM
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RE: Documents indicate Iraqi threat

Those same people may have also noted that elections in Afganistan occurred as the result of the UN, your eternal boogie man, and that the country has been brought to some semblence of peace by a true international coalition. Meanwhile, Iraq is in shambles due to jingoistic uber-patriots who don't have a clue on how to pull off the same thing in Iraq.

Your justification for the mass murder of tens of thousands of people, because they "might" be a threat to us some day, is despicable. Hitler could have used you for his propaganda work.



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post #25 of 39 (permalink) Old 10-13-2004, 05:30 PM
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RE: Documents indicate Iraqi threat

Just wondering, is there some kind of mental technique or electronic device one uses to suspend the disbelief in the fantastic and imaginary? I think that I'm stuck in the Cartesian world...
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post #26 of 39 (permalink) Old 10-13-2004, 05:32 PM
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RE: Documents indicate Iraqi threat

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Zeitgeist - 10/13/2004 5:30 PM

Just wondering, is there some kind of mental technique or electronic device one uses to suspend the disbelief in the fantastic and imaginary? I think that I'm stuck in the Cartesian world...
That's easy. A pyramid-shaped hat does wonders when covered in tin foil. [;)]

OBK #35

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post #27 of 39 (permalink) Old 10-13-2004, 05:53 PM
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RE: Documents indicate Iraqi threat

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Botnst - 10/13/2004 6:08 PM

The conclusion that many of us have reached is that its better to take-out a malignant, murderous BMF when he's weak and planning threats rather than wait until he is strong and an actual.

This is why its called, "pre-emption" rather than "reaction".

I'd rather pre-empt and be thought beligerent than react after 3,000 innocent Americans die from lack of pre-emption.

BTW, anybody notice than millions of Afghans voted for the first time in their history? There are some people who think that tribal people cannot learn democracy in a single step. hard to imagine being such a bigot as to think people cannot learn democracy.
Bot, would taking out Saddam on 9/10 have prevented 9/11? If not, and I don't see how it could have, I fail to see the logic of how another preemtive strike on some incapable, loudmouthed vermin will prevent the next significant loss of innocent American lives. Just being a beligerent bully, preemtively attacking anyone our cowboy mentality administration puts a black hat on is not going to make America safer.

The logic expressed above, namely that when the data you have is inconclusive you have to seek conclusive data before attacking another country, makes much better sense. If this means we have to fix our intelligence gathering and interpretting skills we better get on the task and forget the idea of attacking more countries with faulty data because that is easier. Won't be long before we don't have what it takes to defend ourselves when a real threat emerges from a quarter we haven't been looking in because we were preoccupied with deposing random guys we painted black hats on. Jim
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post #28 of 39 (permalink) Old 10-13-2004, 05:57 PM
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RE: Documents indicate Iraqi threat

I think this sums up our Liar In Chief quite well:

Bush Ignores the Facts With Good Reason
by Joe Conason

When George W. Bush speaks, the listener is often left guessing whether the President of the United States intends to deceive or is merely ignorant of basic facts. Either is always possible, since Mr. Bush is as capable of deception as any politician, and more indolent than many whenever "hard work" is required.

That unflattering question arose again this week when Mr. Bush went out to talk about the final report of the Iraq Survey Group. The chances that he actually read the dense, thousand-plus pages delivered to his desk by Charles Duelfer, the President’s hand-picked chief weapons inspector, were of course minimal. In any case, the likelihood that he could bring himself to describe the report’s findings honestly was equally small, because they decimate his justifications for war.

Although he acknowledged that the Duelfer report "confirms the earlier conclusion that Iraq did not have the weapons that our intelligence believed were there," the President went on to declare that the report also "raises important new information about Saddam Hussein’s defiance of the world and his intent and capability to develop weapons. He retained the knowledge, the materials, the means and the intent to produce weapons of mass destruction. And he could have passed that knowledge on to our terrorist enemies. Saddam Hussein was a unique threat, a sworn enemy of our country, a state sponsor of terror. And America and the world are safer for our actions."

The least that can be expected of a hard-working chief executive, perhaps, is to read the "key findings" of a report on such important matters, especially since those findings are summed up in fewer than 20 pages. If we assume that Mr. Bush read those key findings—or that someone told him about them—then he must also know the following:

• "Iraq’s ability to reconstitute a nuclear weapons program," which served as the most important rationale for war, had "progressive decayed" since 1991—and Mr. Duelfer "found no evidence to suggest concerted efforts to restart the program." Here, too, the report confirms that "aggressive" U.N. inspections had neutralized the Iraqi nuclear program. (The report also suggests that Saddam was chiefly concerned about the "Iranian threat" if and when Teheran got the bomb.)

• "Iraq unilaterally destroyed its undeclared chemical weapons stockpile in 1991"—and Mr. Duelfer also saw no "credible indications" that the regime had "resumed production of chemical munitions" since then, or even sought to acquire "precursor chemicals in bulk" to make them. Once more, the report emphasizes Saddam’s concern with deterring Iran—and mentions no evidence that he would have given chemical weapons to terrorists.

• The Duelfer team discovered "no direct evidence that Iraq, after 1996, had plans for a new [biological weapons] program or was conducting BW-specific work for military purposes." Although Iraq initially tried to preserve those facilities, that effort ended when the regime razed its Al Hakam weapons plant. For seven years prior to the invasion, Iraq had conducted no "illicit research into [biological warfare] agents." As for those "mobile labs" featured in Colin Powell’s scary presentation to the U.N. Security Council, they were "almost certainly designed and built exclusively for the generation of hydrogen."

• Iraq possessed "plans or designs for three long-range ballistic missiles," but that effort, too, had been stymied by the United Nations. In December 2002, the Iraqi regime revealed its new missile systems to the U.N. inspectors led by Hans Blix, who were busy dismantling those rockets a few months later when the invasion began.

• "Iran was the preeminent motivator" of Iraq’s desire to re-create its destroyed W.M.D. arsenal, as Mr. Duelfer explains in his comments on "regime strategic intent." Saddam hoped to revive his chemical and nuclear weapons programs someday—mainly because he feared his mortal enemies in Iran rather than the United States or even Israel. Nowhere do Mr. Duelfer’s "key findings" mention Al Qaeda or other terrorists (to whom Baghdad presumably could have passed chemical or biological weapons when the dictator still had them, a decade ago, but did not).

In short, the Duelfer report proves that Iraq was in no sense a "gathering threat" to us—as the President continues to insist in his stump speeches. The Iraqi regime’s diminished power presented a problem not nearly as grave as those posed by North Korea, Iran and Al Qaeda.

After last year’s invasion, those who had publicly doubted the firm assurances of the President and his cabinet about Saddam’s possession or imminent acquisition of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons were told to wait patiently for inspections to be completed. The White House couldn’t wait another eight weeks for the U.N. inspections to conclude, but asked the world to withhold judgment for 18 months on its preemptive attack.

Now the truth is here, belated yet still devastating—which is why the President still speaks as if he doesn’t know it.

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post #29 of 39 (permalink) Old 10-13-2004, 06:00 PM
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RE: Documents indicate Iraqi threat

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Zeitgeist - 10/13/2004 4:30 PM

...is there some kind of mental technique or electronic device one uses to suspend the disbelief in the fantastic and imaginary?
...sure * plays * a * mean * pin * ball.......

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post #30 of 39 (permalink) Old 10-13-2004, 08:02 PM
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RE: Documents indicate Iraqi threat

Mean Mister Mustard sleeps in the park
Shaves in the dark trying to save paper
Sleeps in a hole in the road
Saving up to buy some clothes
Keeps a ten-bob note up his nose
Such a mean old man
Such a mean old man
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