Great web site for tracking the election - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #1 of 1 (permalink) Old 10-09-2004, 09:49 AM Thread Starter
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Great web site for tracking the election

As a person who works with statistics a lot, I know that a single poll means little, while a statistical average of a number of polls tells a lot. A have found a web site that works it this way, and you all may find it handy as well. Also handy, if you look under the US map to the left, you will "State poll graphs" as a menu selection. You can get a statistical average of all the current polls for a state there. I have found an interesting commonality in the swing states on the Bush side, an inverted U that starts at the Republican National Convention on the upswing, followed by a precipitous drop in the past two weeks. This also affects the trend lines, which are all out of kilter because the poll numbers did not follow the usual rule, which is to gradually trend slightly upward or downward as Nov2 approaches. This indicates a strong move to Kerry, but it also indicates an extremely violatile electorate, probably the most volatile in history.

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