Date registered: Sep 2004
Vehicle: 83 Astral Silver 280 SL
Location: Planet Houston
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Quoted: 8 Post(s)
RE: It's gonna be a landslide
Perhaps. But the makeup of the electorate is pretty complex. There seems to be a 35% element of the electorate for both parties that is solid. The Republican 35 percenters are made up of a mixture of strong fiscal conservatives and religous fundamentalists. That is not a match made in heaven. I think it will hold together for this election, but I can't help but feel eventually the Libertarians will pick up the fiscal conservatives because the Republicans at the local level are being completly taken over by the fundies. Surprisingly, the Liboes, while nor showing much nationally are polling respectable numbers in three crucial states - Wisconsin, New Mexico and New Hampshire, all crucial to Bush. One poll showed an astonishing 5% in NM.
The real question is the other 14% segment that represents the Republican softies. In sad actuality, these are the nincompoops. They are held on sway by the crass psuedo-patriotic spin the Repubs have become masterful at, and by inconsequential issues like gay marriage. They are not ideaologues, and will switch easily to whoever they percieve holds them the most benefit. Bush for months now has held them in check by waving "security" as the benefit he brings them. Kerry tore him a new one on that issue in Debate 1. The results follwed the statistical model of the electorate pretty much as expected. On average, 35% thought Bush won - his red meat crowd only, and the soft 15%'ers went over to the other side, in an orgy of perceiving Bush no longer was the protector he claims to be. If Kerry can solidify that, he will win in a landslide. If he can only convince a few and a few fiscals conservatives peel off to the Liboes, then he wins in a squeaker. If Bush can succeed in restoring his "War President" bullshit persona in the next two debates, its four more years of Bush. In the end, its all up to the 14%'ers and what few undecideds are left. The ultimate conclusion is that this is a very fluid model, more so than any election in history - having 14% of the electorate acting like ocean waves is unprecedented. The whole thing could switch on a dime. Bush's dime is the capture of Bin Laden. Kerry's is a horrendous setback in Iraq. In the end, this election is the most unpredicatable in history.