It's gonna be a landslide - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #1 of 15 (permalink) Old 10-07-2004, 11:12 PM Thread Starter
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It's gonna be a landslide

W might as well just give up now and save his breath.

AT&T massive layoffs
BOA layoffs
$53 per barrel oil
winter hasn't even hit yet
retail spending down
record gasoline prices with no end in site
companies being rewarded for outsourcing
not to mention the whole Iraq thing

Not so much that Kerry is that great or anything, it's just that I happen to believe that Edwards was right, this country can't take four more years of Bush/Cheney. Bush's numbers will continue to fall. I doubt any state's votes will need to be counted more than once this go around.

Does anyone believe it will be a close election?
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post #2 of 15 (permalink) Old 10-08-2004, 12:56 AM
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RE: It's gonna be a landslide

Well we should know more tonight.
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post #3 of 15 (permalink) Old 10-08-2004, 08:15 AM
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RE: It's gonna be a landslide

I've been predicting a landslide for the democrats since I read the results of a question posted on MrLandlord.com early this year. The question was,"Who will you vote for?" A substantial portion said democratic. The people who post on that site are overwhelmingly conservative, and they are the base of the republican party. They're conservative enough that some of them argue that a person should have to own property in order to vote. But, W's fiscal policies are anathema to them.
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post #4 of 15 (permalink) Old 10-08-2004, 09:04 AM
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RE: It's gonna be a landslide

Take a look at an Electoral College map. The landslide may technically happen in the Northern/coastal blue states, and may also manifest itself through depressed turnout in the red states. But I just came up with a 269/269 tie when I ran a likely electoral scenario. Once again, our undemocratic electoral system could obscure the actual will of the people, allowing the loser of the popular vote to earn a degree from an unacredited college.

http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/politics/2004_ELECTIONGUIDE_GRAPHIC/index_NADER.html
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post #5 of 15 (permalink) Old 10-08-2004, 09:18 AM
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RE: It's gonna be a landslide

This will be a frighteningly close election, rather like the last one, unless something big happens in the next three weeks, such as the capture of Osama bin Laden... Let's all hold our collective breath.

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post #6 of 15 (permalink) Old 10-08-2004, 10:30 AM
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RE: It's gonna be a landslide

Hold your chads as well.
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post #7 of 15 (permalink) Old 10-08-2004, 10:52 AM
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RE: It's gonna be a landslide

I think it depends on the next two debates. I don't think we have reached a tipping point to the word "landslide" yet, but it is starting to sink into to a lot of people that behind the smoke screen provided by what has become the most disciplined, orgnaized and powerful right wing media machine in history, is a great big frigging mess.

There is also a major cognitive dissonance factor here. Deep in their hearts, millions of people are faced subconciously with the stark reality that given the new CIA reports on no WMDs and no al-Queda invovlement, we collectively murdered tens of thousands of people while leaving our children unprotected from the real menance. It was brought home here in a powerful way - our kid's schools are sending home leaflets on how to spot terrorists lurking around schools. I cannot help but feel that if we had smashed al-Queda in Pakistan and Afganistan at the beginning of this nightmare, I would not be getting that leaflet. I believe it is going out across the country. It is a powerful reminder that Bush has made us less safe with his twisted and murderous oil war.
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post #8 of 15 (permalink) Old 10-08-2004, 11:07 AM
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RE: It's gonna be a landslide

The sad truth is that the vast majority of Bush supporters don't seem to give a rat's ass about any of this. They just seem content to follow their leader as he confidently heads toward the cliff. See "lemmings".

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post #9 of 15 (permalink) Old 10-08-2004, 11:31 AM
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RE: It's gonna be a landslide

Quote:
GermanStar - 10/10/2004 12:07 PM

The sad truth is that the vast majority of Bush supporters don't seem to give a rat's ass about any of this. They just seem content to follow their leader as he confidently heads toward the cliff. See "lemmings".
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post #10 of 15 (permalink) Old 10-08-2004, 11:32 AM
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RE: It's gonna be a landslide

Perhaps. But the makeup of the electorate is pretty complex. There seems to be a 35% element of the electorate for both parties that is solid. The Republican 35 percenters are made up of a mixture of strong fiscal conservatives and religous fundamentalists. That is not a match made in heaven. I think it will hold together for this election, but I can't help but feel eventually the Libertarians will pick up the fiscal conservatives because the Republicans at the local level are being completly taken over by the fundies. Surprisingly, the Liboes, while nor showing much nationally are polling respectable numbers in three crucial states - Wisconsin, New Mexico and New Hampshire, all crucial to Bush. One poll showed an astonishing 5% in NM.

The real question is the other 14% segment that represents the Republican softies. In sad actuality, these are the nincompoops. They are held on sway by the crass psuedo-patriotic spin the Repubs have become masterful at, and by inconsequential issues like gay marriage. They are not ideaologues, and will switch easily to whoever they percieve holds them the most benefit. Bush for months now has held them in check by waving "security" as the benefit he brings them. Kerry tore him a new one on that issue in Debate 1. The results follwed the statistical model of the electorate pretty much as expected. On average, 35% thought Bush won - his red meat crowd only, and the soft 15%'ers went over to the other side, in an orgy of perceiving Bush no longer was the protector he claims to be. If Kerry can solidify that, he will win in a landslide. If he can only convince a few and a few fiscals conservatives peel off to the Liboes, then he wins in a squeaker. If Bush can succeed in restoring his "War President" bullshit persona in the next two debates, its four more years of Bush. In the end, its all up to the 14%'ers and what few undecideds are left. The ultimate conclusion is that this is a very fluid model, more so than any election in history - having 14% of the electorate acting like ocean waves is unprecedented. The whole thing could switch on a dime. Bush's dime is the capture of Bin Laden. Kerry's is a horrendous setback in Iraq. In the end, this election is the most unpredicatable in history.

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