Very odd poll results, reaction to Cheney's performance - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #1 of 20 (permalink) Old 10-06-2004, 12:25 PM Thread Starter
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Very odd poll results, reaction to Cheney's performance

The polls are showing partisans selected the winner as would be expected, but everyone is being surprised by the fact that "undecided" groups are scoring Edwards the winner. I didn't expect that, and am left scratching my head as to why, given Cheney's decent performance. Any ideas?

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/06/debate.main/index.html
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post #2 of 20 (permalink) Old 10-06-2004, 12:56 PM
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RE: Very odd poll results, reaction to Cheney's performance

I think a lot of the undecided voters are undecided mainly based on the "war" and economy. A lot of them were probably hoping that Cheney would put to rest a lot of the Halliburton rumors and lay a more realistic sounding plan for Iraq and the economy rather than the delusions his boss spews.


The war is just too much good ammo for Kerry and Edwards to use to get undecided voters.
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post #3 of 20 (permalink) Old 10-06-2004, 12:59 PM
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RE: Very odd poll results, reaction to Cheney's performance

Who knows? Perhaps it was a youthful crowd. Perhaps they were decided about Cheney, but didn't know Edwards. I know many here disagree, but I thought Edwards absolutely held his own last night, and Cheney's no pushover. The bottom line is that other opinions don't count for much -- the undecideds are the only ones that really matter.

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post #4 of 20 (permalink) Old 10-06-2004, 01:16 PM
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RE: Very odd poll results, reaction to Cheney's performance

Maybe when Cheney said he'd do everything exactly the same it jolted a few people too realize eveyone makes mistakes. I don't know why Edwards didn't jump all over that better than he did. The admin. seems stuck on stupid - "Honey I thought it was you"
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post #5 of 20 (permalink) Old 10-06-2004, 02:31 PM
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RE: Very odd poll results, reaction to Cheney's performance

Quote:
crash9 - 10/6/2004 1:16 PM

... The admin. seems stuck on stupid - "Honey I thought it was you"
Bwahahahhaa!

OBK #35

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post #6 of 20 (permalink) Old 10-06-2004, 03:23 PM Thread Starter
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RE: Very odd poll results, reaction to Cheney's performance

The Houston paper is absolutely, positively bizarre today. They have one article that reports on the CIA saying there was no Saddam-al-Queda link, next an article with Cheney claiming that there was, next to an article in which Rumsfeld was claiming no al-Queda link yesterday, but now today he says that he really meant there was one, next to an article where Paul Bremer was saying yesterday there were not enough troops in Iraq but was now saying today that he really meant that there were, next to an article where Bush's spokesman McClennen was saying that Bremer's opinion didn't matter, containing quotes from the past when McClennen said they did. How can you Republicans support this bunch?

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post #7 of 20 (permalink) Old 10-06-2004, 03:59 PM
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RE: Very odd poll results, reaction to Cheney's performance

talk about flip-floppin' ..... ha, ha, ha...



in political asylum
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post #8 of 20 (permalink) Old 10-06-2004, 04:28 PM Thread Starter
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RE: Very odd poll results, reaction to Cheney's performance

New term I heard today for Bush style government: Dictatorship of the Jackassatariat
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post #9 of 20 (permalink) Old 10-06-2004, 04:34 PM
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RE: Very odd poll results, reaction to Cheney's performance

Quote:
kvining - 10/6/2004 2:25 PM

The polls are showing partisans selected the winner as would be expected, but everyone is being surprised by the fact that "undecided" groups are scoring Edwards the winner. I didn't expect that, and am left scratching my head as to why, given Cheney's decent performance. Any ideas?

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/06/debate.main/index.html
.
.
Polls are done by resampling stats. You poll a small number and through various arcane randomization and resampling methods, accumulate results until you reach some stopping criterion.

Because of the small pool of original samples, anything that affects the assumptions when sampling may have a significant effect on the results.

For example, when comparing various polls its a good idea to check whether the sample pool is of anybody who answers the phone, voting-aged people who answer the phone, people who have voted previously in a presidential election, etc.

Also, unplanned effects can be in effect. For example, say a poll taker has a hard time pronouncing Kerry without making a fart-noise. If that person took 1/10th of the samples then there is a great chance that his impediment would bias the results.

etc.

One way to avoid systematic errors (like poll-taker error) is to look at polls taken from lots of sources and compare their results. Just looking at one source will give you a greater liklihood of some sort of error. Look at a bunch.


Finally, would you be willing to invest say, your next paycheck that the results of a given poll will correctly predict the winner of the election? If not, then you may wish to greet that poll with an appropriate level of skepticism.

Here's a good source for lots of polls, FWIW.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04misc.htm
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post #10 of 20 (permalink) Old 10-06-2004, 05:17 PM Thread Starter
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RE: Very odd poll results, reaction to Cheney's performance

Polls help one guage the effectiveness of a particular line of political attack. Although their ability to predict final outcome may be limited, they are a powerful tool for measuring reaction.
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