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post #11 of 20 (permalink) Old 10-06-2004, 06:08 PM
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RE: Very odd poll results, reaction to Cheney's performance

I thought that Cheney was poised, knowledgeable, skillfull, these-are-the-facts and here's our plan. Silky Pony was in more of the Jimmy Carter "Just trust us" category.

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post #12 of 20 (permalink) Old 10-06-2004, 06:18 PM Thread Starter
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RE: Very odd poll results, reaction to Cheney's performance

Quote:
Botnst - 10/6/2004 6:34 PM


Polls are done by resampling stats. You poll a small number and through various arcane randomization and resampling methods, accumulate results until you reach some stopping criterion.

Because of the small pool of original samples, anything that affects the assumptions when sampling may have a significant effect on the results.

For example, when comparing various polls its a good idea to check whether the sample pool is of anybody who answers the phone, voting-aged people who answer the phone, people who have voted previously in a presidential election, etc.


...............
Botsnst, you may or may not of heard of the newer Futures Market based polling that now rivals the older statistical methods. It is being used in corporations and think tanks as well, as a predictor of all types situations other than political. It may be even seeing some use in government agencies:

http://www.zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=9747

http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/
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post #13 of 20 (permalink) Old 10-06-2004, 06:18 PM
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RE: Very odd poll results, reaction to Cheney's performance

Quote:
Cap n Carageous - 10/6/2004 6:08 PM

I thought that Cheney was poised, knowledgeable, skillfull, these-are-the-facts and here's our plan. Silky Pony was in more of the Jimmy Carter "Just trust us" category.
While I agree with your characterization of Cheney, it's him that is peddling the "just trust us" crap. He keeps linking Saddam with Bin Ladin, and then denying it. He maintains the attitude that "Father knows best", and you (the public) will be informed on a "need-to-know" basis.

OBK #35

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post #14 of 20 (permalink) Old 10-06-2004, 06:42 PM Thread Starter
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RE: Very odd poll results, reaction to Cheney's performance

Master of Puppets:


MASTER! MASTER! TELLING ONLY LIES

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post #15 of 20 (permalink) Old 10-06-2004, 08:26 PM
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RE: Very odd poll results, reaction to Cheney's performance

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kvining - 10/6/2004 2:25 PM

The polls are showing partisans selected the winner as would be expected, but everyone is being surprised by the fact that "undecided" groups are scoring Edwards the winner. I didn't expect that, and am left scratching my head as to why, given Cheney's decent performance. Any ideas?

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/06/debate.main/index.html
My response to Kirk starts here: $^%##^%^computers!!

I think Edwards held his own, didn't make any major gaffes and scored some points with the undecided middle class moms by pointing out that Cheney voted against Headstart. Plus Edwards is clearly prettier then Cheney in this popularity contest. It's about time the whole "likeable" factor bullshit broke in our favor.
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post #16 of 20 (permalink) Old 10-06-2004, 09:56 PM
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RE: Very odd poll results, reaction to Cheney's performance

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kvining - 10/6/2004 4:23 PM

The Houston paper is absolutely, positively bizarre today. They have one article that reports on the CIA saying there was no Saddam-al-Queda link, next an article with Cheney claiming that there was, next to an article in which Rumsfeld was claiming no al-Queda link yesterday, but now today he says that he really meant there was one, next to an article where Paul Bremer was saying yesterday there were not enough troops in Iraq but was now saying today that he really meant that there were, next to an article where Bush's spokesman McClennen was saying that Bremer's opinion didn't matter, containing quotes from the past when McClennen said they did. How can you Republicans support this bunch?
Must be osmosis - from the Kerry / Hillary (2008) machine...

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post #17 of 20 (permalink) Old 10-07-2004, 06:25 AM
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RE: Very odd poll results, reaction to Cheney's performance

Quote:
kvining - 10/6/2004 8:18 PM

Quote:
Botnst - 10/6/2004 6:34 PM


Polls are done by resampling stats. You poll a small number and through various arcane randomization and resampling methods, accumulate results until you reach some stopping criterion.

Because of the small pool of original samples, anything that affects the assumptions when sampling may have a significant effect on the results.

For example, when comparing various polls its a good idea to check whether the sample pool is of anybody who answers the phone, voting-aged people who answer the phone, people who have voted previously in a presidential election, etc.


...............
Botsnst, you may or may not of heard of the newer Futures Market based polling that now rivals the older statistical methods. It is being used in corporations and think tanks as well, as a predictor of all types situations other than political. It may be even seeing some use in government agencies:

http://www.zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=9747

http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/
I read through the U Iowa site. The description reminded me of Adm Poindexter's futures market for terrorism (wasn't that it?). I never did understand what the brouhaha was. Looked like legit research for DARPA.

Now Poindexter's other thing (if I understood it correctly), gathering a massive database on personal transactions to look for aberrent spending patterns, that one gave me the willies. He needed to go for not realizing how massive a bad idea that was.

Hire a smart person who thinks way outside of the box and you'll get some strange things. How strange do citizens want the DoD to get?

B
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post #18 of 20 (permalink) Old 10-07-2004, 07:25 AM
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RE: Very odd poll results, reaction to Cheney's performance

I watched the debate, well, some of it, kinda of like the inability not to stare at a hideous car wreck.

Cheney seems to me nothing more than an arrogant member of the rich-class and sees the government as nothing less than his and his alone. His agenda seems nothing more than self serving and his approval of "everything Halliburton" shows that he is not unbiased in the least.

Edwards struck me as someone just DYING to sit in the President's seat. The VP position to him is nothing less than the step to the real prize. I got no sense of public servitude. It seems this is just the next step in a new(ish) political career.

Truthfully, if I voting, neither of these guys would get my vote. Are there any candidates interested in the US people and the societal problems facing tens of millions of people?

I'm really trying to see things from your perspective, but I'm having trouble getting my head up my ass
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post #19 of 20 (permalink) Old 10-07-2004, 07:40 AM
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RE: Very odd poll results, reaction to Cheney's performance

Quote:
blackmercedes - 10/7/2004 6:25 AM

Are there any candidates interested in the US people and the societal problems facing tens of millions of people?
Quite possibly, and they're likely to garner hundreds of votes...

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post #20 of 20 (permalink) Old 10-07-2004, 12:27 PM
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RE: Very odd poll results, reaction to Cheney's performance

Tens, if not hundreds.
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